UPDATED: Fukushima accident considerably greater than Level 6 (article: Asahi.com)

[flamingdem]

* Update: The information is in the reply to this. I found it on Intrade.com where they are betting on the Levels assigned to the Fukushima accident.

** Update 2: This seems to be a translation of that site on zerohedge.com
According to Asahi Shimbun which is quoting the Japan NRC, the Fukushima event has just surpassed Three Mile Island in terms of seriousness, and has been upgraded from Level 5 "Accident with Wider Consequences" to Level 6 "Serious Accident." Only Chernobyl is a Level 7 event. We believe Fukushima should get there within 2 weeks as ever more of the current devastation becomes public. Of course, all of this is a paper-pushing formality. What isn't, are people who may be developing serious diseases as the government continues to misrepresent the severity of the situation.

So it's not declared yet, and Intrade.com is setting forth the 31st as a betting date on their site.
==============

It's the IAEA that decides and they will announce a bump up to Level 6 apparently by the 31st of March, I think that's what this amounts to.

Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, Three Mile considerably greater than the level 6

http://www.asahi.com/national/update/0324/TKY201103240465.html

TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, judging from the estimated amount of radioactivity released, amount to a major accident at an international measure "level 6" was found to be equivalent. Three Mile Island accident from the U.S. already (level 5) was greater than the scale. Release still continues, it may become unusable land around a long time.
Nuclear Safety Commission, SPEEDI (fast) (fast radiation effects predicted in emergencies) to calculate the spread of radioactivity in the system based on radiation measurements in various places, one hour from radiated the primary estimated the rate of release of iodine. And simply calculate the emissions from 24 until midnight July 12 at 6:00 am immediately after the accident, 30,000 of 110,000 Becquerel Terra (Terra is a trillion times) will be.

International Nuclear Event Scale (INES), the worst nuclear accident such as Chernobyl in 1986, "seven-level serious accident is defined as" over the release of tens of thousands of tera Becquerel. Actual emissions are approximately 1.8 million was Terabekureru. At least this time next to it, "Level 6" (thousands of terabytes - thousands of becquerels) equivalent.

Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency Ministry of Economy yesterday, one of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant - an interim evaluation No. 3, "Level 5" is announced, will be promoted emission estimates, could be reviewed high. Soil contamination is localized to the same level have a place in the Chernobyl accident.

[flamingdem]

1. Intrade says the IAEA will upgrade Fukashima to a Level 6 by March 31st

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=747510

People are betting on the accident or on the level on Intrade?

Capitalism is so lovely.

So this was level 5 - Now what will they say?:
*
mkg (Mar 18, 2011 11:30:38) 0 Reply

"Japanese authorities have assessed that the core damage at the Fukushima Daiichi 2 and 3 reactor units caused by loss of all cooling function has been rated as 5 on the INES scale."

http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html

[jpak]

2. The quantities of volatile fission products released are far greater than TMI (a level 5)

They rival - and may exceed - Chernobyl and directly effect one of the largest metropolitan areas on the planet.

Shame and pride (or greed) are the only things preventing this DISASTER from being uprated to level 6 or 7

yup

[flamingdem]

4. Note the update: IAEA will upgrade by March 31st - Asahi admits to more.. nt

[FBaggins]

19. Your first statement is true.

It's far greater than TMI.

Your second is flat wrong. The levels of a coupe specific elements (those that are released with steam) are estimated to be getting close. But there are many other "volatile fission products" that have not been released in significant quantities that were blown all over parts of Europe and Asia from Chernobyl.

You keep ignoring the fact that there is already a six on the books... and fukushima (to date anyway) simply doesn't compare.

The problem with the scale is that TMI should never have been a five. This makes much more sense as three fives and TMI as a four.

[Atman]

3. Of course it is.

They admitted a week ago that one of the spent fuel tanks was dry. What do people has been happening all that time? They haven't managed to fix the pumps, refill the tanks, and they're only just know getting electricity reconnected. The fuel rods weren't just sitting there waiting to be cooled.

[ReturnoftheDjedi]

5. looks like they are indeed upgrading it to 6. where's Frodo to tell us this is all just ignorance?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fukushima-raised-level-6-ines-scale-now-officially-more-serious-3-mile-island

[flamingdem]

6. They have that growing problem with the salt buildup, smoke from #1-3 today

Michio Kaku said the salt is a problem, creation of hydrogen and one spark and he said it could be Chernobyl.

On Maddow's show.

I hope someone hears him who has the power to do something.

[girl gone mad]

11. Interesting.

I had been thinking about the salt in the sea water, wondering what specific effects it might be having. So many variables to consider here and I actually get really depressed thinking about this situation, so I wasn't going to bother to try and work out the chemical equations or run monte carlo simulations or read up on the reactor design details, etc (no really good data around, anyhow).

Japan has many intelligent, capable engineers. I trust that they will be making the best decisions based on all available information, if it is in their hands. There's nothing the rest of us can do but donate to the victims of the tsunami and avoid spreading false information (good or bad) when possible.

[flamingdem]

16. They need fresh water, US forces are going to help with the water problems nt

[kristopher]

30. You could gather a group and fold 1000 cranes - "sembazuru" it's called

http://www.origamihara.com/origamihara_webeasy_site_002.htm

"couples will fold 1,000 cranes as a wish for a long and prosperous marriage. Others will fold the cranes to wish congratulations on a 50th wedding anniversary or as a get well wish for someone who is ill. The folding of the cranes can be done with entire families and friends, not just the bride or the one making the wish. It is believed that the more people involved, the more luck you will have! "

It was the first instinct of most in the Japanese community over here - it actually has a lot of meaning and it is better than sitting on your hands. This list of news stories might give you an idea of where to send the hanging if you are interested.

http://www.google.com/search?q=thousand+folded+cranes&hl=en&sa=G&prmd=ivnsu&source=univ&tbs=nws:1&tbo=u&ei=dsyMTZ-tFsiO0QHu8KmcCw&ved=0CEsQqAI

PS, thank you for the depth of your feeling.

[girl gone mad]

37. Thanks!

I will definitely find time for this over the weekend.

[DJ13]

7. Intrade.com where they are betting on the Levels assigned to the Fukushima accident.

Thats disgusting.

:nuke:
:wtf:

[flamingdem]

8. Truly vile!

:thumbsdown: :grr: :grr: :grr:

[jberryhill]

9. Uh, no, it's a way of obtaining predictions

You don't seem to understand that people are betting against it as well.

Intrade provides accurate predictions in the same way that 1/3 of all lowest-odd horses actually win races.

[flamingdem]

10. What is it's greater good? I am trying to wrap

my head around the idea that the information could be helpful, but someone is profiting, right?

[jberryhill]

12. People profit from selling newspapers too.

Try following Intrade during the next election cycle.

It is a method of determing what people who are self selected to be informed, and believe it to the extent they are willing to rely on it monetarily, believe to be the likely outcome of a predicted event.

If you don't grok the value of a prediction market, then I'm not sure I can explain it any better. People make money taking and publishing polls as well. Opinion polls suffer from sampling problems which have been exacerbated by cell phones and the like. Self-selected free polls (Internet polls) are also junk for a variety of reasons.

The economic interest in the outcome filters out biases. For example, if during the 2008 race you (a) had a few extra bucks, and (b) saw Obama running at 99% probability and McCain running at 1% probability, how would you bet?

Well, if you are certain Obama will win, you probably won't bet, since getting a $1.01 return on your dollar isn't worth your while. However, even if you want Obama to win, but you think McCains chances are closer to 5%, then the potential $100 payoff makes it a worthwhile bet.

As the share prices stabilize, then you tend to get a very accurate model of what persons who consider themselves informed really think will happen, independent of what any of them may desire as an outcome.

[flamingdem]

13. That's very helpful

but I still think it's a little over the top on this topic, black humor seems to be involved, or irony, or even political commentary.

[jberryhill]

14. Like I said, you should try following some markets on Intrade

Take the hurricane market when hurricane season starts again.

I believe it was Adm. Poindexter who had proposed starting a prediction market in terrorist attacks as an intelligence tool. People with reactions such as yours ridiculed the idea as "horrific". It's not. It is one of many tools for forecasting events. Meterologists get laid to predict things like whether thousands of people may die as a consequence of a weather event. Pundits get paid for predicting all manner of doom and gloom. This is simply a method of cutting through bullshit to find out what persons who believe themselves to be informed think will happen.

It is particularly valuable for things exactly like this. It's not a joke. It is as deadly serious as the events themselves.

[flamingdem]

15. Inadvertent chuckle

Meterologists get laid to predict things like whether thousands of people may die as a consequence of a weather event.

I was trying to wrap my head around that for a second!

[jberryhill]

17. iPhone autocorrect

http://damnyouautocorrect.com/

Your new favorite site!

[Dave Caputo]

18. Problems with a predictive terrorism market

I believe predictive markets are valuable, but a terrorism market could be "gamed" pretty easily, by insiders with weapons and an agenda, particularly covert operatives, rogue or no. If people think that this kind of thing would be impossible in a Democratic society, one only needs to recall the short selling before 9/11. This WAS a very accurate predictive model which the intelligence services of this country SHOULD have been able to use to predict the attack, right down to the targets and airlines used.

http://www.hereinreality.com/insidertrading.html">See this excellent article by Mike Ruppert about the topic from October of 2001 for more information on this particular topic.

[jberryhill]

22. Any measurement tool has problems

That's why you use more than one.

[FBaggins]

20. The "free market" has no place in scoring disasters.

Incredibly tasteless.

[jberryhill]

21. Oh, really? How do newsrooms decide what goes on the front page?

Newspapers and broadcasters are in that business every day.

If you want people to pick up your newspaper instead of another one off the rack, then you'd better develop a good sense of which of the day's horrors is going to sell the most papers.

How does DU decide what goes on the front page? Fail.

[FBaggins]

23. They make a professional determination.

They don't put all the options on a website and say "put $5 down on the story you think we'll do next... and win $20 if you get it right" and then play the one with the highest support.

But that doesn't matter. Which story to run IS a reasonable free-market exercise. Facts are not open to market forces.

[jberryhill]

24. "and then play the one with the highest support"

Obviously, the way that pari-mutuel betting works is lost on you.

[FBaggins]

25. Not at all.

It's just that your chosen example isn't an exact parallel.

If six cops are shot by a gang member and all are in critical condition... there is no place for people to place bets (i.e., profit motivation) on how many will live or die.

None.

[jberryhill]

26. That's also not an event of significance to any business, political or emergency planning

How about:

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=716706

USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Jun 2011

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=728604

Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 31 Mar 2011

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=745538

A successful WMD terrorist attack to occur anywhere in the world before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013

---

Again, it turns out that the crowd at a horse racing track accurately predicts the winner of horse races (typically among 6 to 12 entrants) 1/3 of the time. Nobody has an explanation for that, and it has been true for decades. Intrade is an experiment in putting that type of thing to work for constructive purposes. I'm sorry you can't see that.

[FBaggins]

28. Yes... I think that all three are inappropriate subjects for gambling.

I would never buy something that paid off id there was a terrorist attack.

Again, it turns out that the crowd at a horse racing track accurately predicts the winner of horse races

And the crowd at the track knows a great deal more about horses and racing than the average person knows about nuclear power or disasters.

[jberryhill]

32. "than the average person knows"

That's the entire point.

The willingness to put something at stake is a filter against someone who, at least as far as they believe, doesn't themselves think they know anything.

It is not a randomly selected sample of people who might or might not know anything, nor is it self-selected idle speculation. It is the collective judgment of people who are willing to risk something tangible on their opinion.

Every year I make a bet with my life insurance company that I'm going to die! So far, I've lost each time. One of these days, I'll get lucky.

[jberryhill]

27. Incidentally, the DU "Greatest Page" is not the result of a "professional determination" /nt

[FBaggins]

29. So? Same reply.

The weakness of my initial response was predicated by an example that was less than fully relevant to the discussion.

With the "greatest" list there is no money changing hands based on life threatening unknowns that people want to speculate on.

[kristopher]

31. How could that possibly be more tasteless and vulgar

than a nuclear industry in full damage control mode while the catastrophe is still unfolding? Trying at every step to beat down the legitimate fears and concerns of those most affected in order to preserve profits and jobs?

Your perception of ethics is astounding.

[jberryhill]

35. Precisely

Using prediction markets as a forecasting technique is one way of routing around the pronouncements of paid experts - since it makes all participants "paid experts", but only if they are correct.

Green, Armstrong, and Graefe (2007): Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared. Forthcoming in Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting (Fall 2007)
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4999/01/MPRA_paper_4999.pdf

I guess I should just read the TEPCO press releases, and not bother to see which way the money is betting. That is the conclusion of those who find this odious.

[FBaggins]

36. Got it.

Failing to buy into (indeed failing to help SELL) irrational unfounded fears is tasteless and vulgar... saying that it's unacceptable to bet on life and death issues is no problem.

Makes about as much sense as your other argumentative attacks. Why stop now?

[GliderGuider]

33. I look on it more as "Put your money where your mouth is."

I don't see how betting on a speculation makes it any more vile than speculating in the first place. Human have bet on every possible event or activity that has ever occurred.

You can think of this as a Delphi Method of prediction, with a broader input base but lower level of expertise. The possibility of winning money provides the motivation to participate.

[jberryhill]

34. There's an interesting reference in that article

Green, Armstrong, and Graefe (2007): Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared. Forthcoming in Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting (Fall 2007)

---

IMHO, the reactions here are based on ignorance of what prediction markets are trying to accomplish, and a visceral emotional reaction to people "betting on awful things". They don't seem to realize that assessment of the probability of those kinds of "awful things" is something of social value, nor do they understand that this is one of many academically sound techniques for obtaining forecasts.

It's sort of like how weather forecasting is banned in certain cultures because foretelling the future is evil.