http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/media/comment/wpatterson0311/-/1260/We do not know what may yet happen at Fukushima and other nuclear plants in Japan. Amid the chaos and devastation caused by the earthquake and tsunami, communications are understandably confused and difficult. But some consequences are already evident.
In the context of the catastrophic damage and loss of life the country has suffered, the media and popular attention paid to the nuclear problems seems disproportionate. But nuclear issues have long been peculiarly resonant in the public mind, especially in Japan, for obvious historical reasons. Moreover Japanese nuclear authorities have an unfortunate track record of downplaying or concealing mishaps, making the media and the public less ready to accept official reassurances.
At the moment, what is known about conditions at Japan's nuclear sites is fragmentary and incomplete, and evolving rapidly. The possibility of much more serious malfunction cannot yet be discounted. The additional stress on the population in the affected areas, with a reported 170,000 people thus far evacuated, is compounding the drastically severe traumas caused by the earthquake and tsunami.
At least three reactors are being flooded with sea water, effectively writing them off. They will never operate again. In fact Fukushima 1 was due to be shut down later this month.
But decommissioning it and the other reactors, and cleaning up the radioactive mess inside them, will be a long, difficult and dangerous task, even assuming no more serious developments ensue. The immediate economic impact will be significant. But the longer-term economic impact may be more profound.<more>