Gas could climb to $3.75 per gallon BY SPRING!!...oil experts predict

[JohnWxy]

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2011-01-02-gas-climbs_N.htm

Drivers in the USA could be paying as much as $3.75 a gallon for gas this spring, oil experts predict.

Prices at the gas pump have inched up all year as the cost of crude oil neared $100 a barrel. On Christmas Day, the average nationwide price of self-serve regular hit $3, a record for that day. By year's end, the average price reached $3.06.

Prices creeping toward $4 a gallon could have dire consequences for some industries and slow the economic recovery, analysts say.

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"We learned in 2008 that $4-a-gallon gas is a deal-breaker for the economy," says Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. "If it happens, it's not sustainable. There's only so much the consumer will bear."

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Somewhere between $3.50 a gallon and $4.00 a gallon our economy will hit a wall. (It took $4.00 a gallon to do it in 2008 but our unemployment is higher now and people have less to spend now.) We will be dragged out of this tepid recovery and be heading deeper into recession again.

Oil prices are only going to keep rising. When China and India start revving up like they were before this Golden Age of Trickle Down Prosperity ( viz. The Republican Dystopia) we will be looking fondly back at the days of $3.50 a gallon gasoline.

Unfortunately, some approaches to reduce gasoline demand (such as hybrids and PHEVs) will take 20 years to realize much success. That will be about 18 years too late to save our economy.

WHEN WILL PEOPLE REALIZE YOU CAN REPLACE THE FUEL MUCH QUICKER THAN YOU CAN REPLACE THE CARS THAT BURN THE FUEL ?

POSSIBLE WAY TO AVERT INDEFINITE RECESSION:

Reduce the tariff on Brazilian ethanol and continue support of the domestic ethanol industry (as needed) so as to try to achieve 15% of our fuel supply being met with ethanol in as short a time as possible (i.e. a few years). This will help contain (though probably not entirely prevent) the great energy price rise (see below for what more we can do). After reaching 15% of the fuel supply work towards 20% and then 25% (or more). Without doing this, we are headed for another Recession/Depression (given the weakened state of the economy) and that will not help the adoption of the more expensive green technologies which we certainly need, such as Hybrids and PHEVs. If significant numbers of people are unemployed you aren't going to see sales of Hybrids and electrics jumping off the charts.

Without this, get ready, the economy will be turning back down in about two years.


But, then there is this approach: http://www.3wheelmotorcycle.com/

To gain the full advantage of ethanol we need to start making the ethanol direct injection engine in large numbers.

To do more to reduce demand for gas, relatively quickly and cheaply, compared to hybrids and PHEVs, we need to impress upon the auto manufacturers the need to start making cars with the MIT designed Ethanol Direct Injection Engine which offers comparable fuel consumption improvements (30% reduction... with Stop Start ignition... 35% to 40% reduction.) as standard hybrid cars at about one third to one fourth the cost (about $1,000 to $1,600 marginal cost). The lower cost obviously makes this technology more obtainable to more people and would enable more rapid acceptance by the public. This engine does not require E85 to do this. It only operates on about 5% ethanol (E85 will do) adn 95% gasoline to achieve these fuel efficiency gains.

To encourage the auto manuacturers to start making these engines we need many more ethanol blender pumps available to people. This would make a mass market for this engine a real possibility, which is what the auto companies need to invest in this technology. They have to be able to sell enough of them to make the investment pay off.

THen again there's always this approach: http://www.3wheelmotorcycle.com/

[rpannier]

1. Obama needs to call up those Sheiks and tell them to turn on those spigots

That's what Dumb-ya did and oil went from 30 bucks a barrel to...uhhhhh....oh. Yeah. Ummmmm

So much for that republikkan talking point

[JohnWxy]

2. and I wonder how much of the $92 a barrel (currently) goes to al Kaida et al.

[roguevalley]

16. Its about 3.89 a gallon here. I can't wait to see what it gets when

you guys get stung. It's about ten bucks a gallon in the bush.

[gtar100]

24. Remember that tax cut we're all supposed to get this year...

The oil execs and speculators are laying their claim to it.

So much for stimulating the economy in any massive way with our windfall.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

3. Not to worry, the Iraq war will take care of war expenses, fuel prices

and overpopulation in Iraq and elsewhere.... and furthermore we can now blame this gas hike AS WELL AS the previous one on the president, how convenient is that?????

[louis-t]

4. Sez oil 'experts' who make money off speculation.

Self-fulfilling prophylactic..er, I mean prophecy.

[JohnWxy]

5. growth in China and India caused by speculation...right!!!!!

[Kennah]

6. This is my current two wheeled alternative

http://www.konaworld.com/bike.cfm?content=dew">Kona Dew


However, full disclosure, I have not been riding the last couple of days here in Washington--I'd rather slide on four wheels than two wheels.

If one wants a glimpse of our future under higher gas prices, check out http://www.powerofcommunity.org">How Cuba Survived Peak Oil.

This is rush hour.

[happyslug]

9. What, I bike at least one day a week every week this winter, and last year also

And I live in Johnstown PA, in the winter of 2009-2010 we had two feet on snow on the ground in January and Febuary 2010, yet I still biked at least once a week every week to and from work.
I never slid once, but then I had installed two studded tires on my bike.

Where I purchased my several years ago:
http://www.peterwhitecycles.com/studdedtires.asp





I use the low end studded tires (the one in the upper of the above two pictures) for I am running almost always on paved roads. The roll resistance of the Studded tires is noticeable on your first ride, but not that much more then regular slicks. When the weather breaks off comes the studs and on go the slicks for while the increase in roll resistance is NOT that much it is noticeable enough to want to change out of the studded tires as soon as the weather breaks. I generally use my tires about six weeks to two months a year. I wait till the first snow (not the first cold weather, in Western PA, we often get cold weather weeks before any snow of more then an inch or two so I wait for the snow and ice before I switch out of my slicks to the studs).

[Kennah]

10. So what you're really saying is ...

... Man Up!

:sarcasm:

I'll get there. When I started riding in 2008, I rode until about November. In 2009-2010, I used my fleece ski mask and I rode all winter except for about 15 days when it was raining cats and dogs. In 2010-2011, I bought rain pants and I've ridden all but about 5 days because of ice.

Wish I'd bought one of the higher end Kona Dews with disc brakes. Still weighing options, looking at the something with fatter tires (my Dew has 27 x 1.25 tires), maybe an electric assist Giant.

Now, if the climate continues to warm, it could be I'm wasting my money getting a winter bike.

[lfairban]

22. Giant is a good bike, but not my choice.

Giant is one of the reputable bike companies that offer an ebike.

Most of the Giant models use a brushed Direct Drive motor rather than a brushless hub motor, but there may be some newer models with a small front hub. I don't like the batteries in the pannier, because it causes unnecessary drag. If the batteries must be mounted in the rear, use a rack mount flat lithium battery or Lead batteries in a trunk.

My preference is a rear geared hub motor with a lithium triangle frame mounted battery, like this one:

[Kennah]

11. And those studded tires are WAY cool!

[CHIMO]

7. It's All Smoke

And mirrors.

EIA’s forecast is an energy fantasy land

The recently released base case that will be used in the coming Annual Energy Outlook 2011 from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) paints a future of cheap and abundant energy for the U.S. economy over the next quarter of a century. But its underlying assumptions are no more credible than those that underpinned the equally optimistic forecasts released by the International Energy Agency.

Which bring us to the EIA’s oil price (CL-FT91.670.120.13%)forecast. Measured in today’s dollars, the agency doesn’t see oil getting to $125 a barrel until 2035. The $125-per-barrel oil price that the EIA has spotted on the very distant 25-year horizon, I believe, will actually be staring the agency in the face within the next 12 months. I leave it to others to assess what that will imply for the credibility of the rest of the EIA’s outlook.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/eias-forecast-is-an-energy-fantasy-land/article1845992/

Take the time to read his book.

[Kolesar]

23. Rubin slams the USEIA report, but he says nothing to support his contention

That was not well written.

[jimlup]

8. FUUUUUDDDDDDDGe

Only I didn't say Fudge.

[doc03]

12. There goes all those jobs the cut in the payroll tax was

supposed to create.

[NMDemDist2]

13. hubby paid $3.07 yesterday for mid range

sigh

[NNadir]

14. Really? You mean ethanol DIDN'T save the day for the car CULTure?

That's news.

I believe you've been here almost a decade telling us that ethanol would save your beloved car CULTure.

How come it didn't? Isn't that grand Iogen cellulose to ethanol plant just working fabulously?

[4dsc]

17. Food for fuel is immoral.

[JohnWxy]

21. 80% of the corn raized in the U.S. is for meeeee (see picture)

(BTW cattle evolved eating grass. They are healthier when eating grass. the key here is cows can eat and digest stuff humans cannot. They do not have to eat corn.)

[4dsc]

28. I only eat grain fed beef now.

[JohnWxy]

19. NOTE to readers, DISINFORMATION ALERT. I NEVER SAID ETHANOL WOULD SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF FOSSIL FUEL

consumption for transportation... by itself. (Also, the first post I made on this site re ethanol was 5 years ago.)

I have always said ethanol is one technology we can use to help solve the GHG emissions and energy security problems due to our vast consumption of petroleum for transportation. There are obviously other technologies we will need to employ such as PHEVs and conventional hybrids.

In the past I have referred to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory study which concluded that we could meet 30% of our transportation fuel needs with ethanol (which projected that we would make cellulosic ethanol commercially feasible).

.... I never said that ethanol would solve the problem of fossil fuel usage for transporation by itself NOR did I ever say it would solve the problem in 5 years.

The fact is we are faced with petroleum prices rising quickly and that these price increases will put our economy back into negative growth unless we do what we can to prevent this from happening. Now, the petroleum price increases will come far faster than the hybrid and PHEV technologies can cope with. THe fact remains that you can replace the fuel cars burn far faster than you can replace the cars that burn the fuel.

The quickest way we have of dealing with the rise in petroleum prices is to increase ethanol usage - by importing all the ethanol Brazil (or anyone else) can supply and combine that with what we can supply domestically. This hopefully would buy time for us to start making every car powered with the Ethanol Direct Injection Engine which would give us an a 23% reduction in fuel consumption for every car sold. Any ethanol supplied that exceeded the amount needed to operate the Ethanol direct injection engine would be used to displace gasoline and add to the reduced gasoline usage.

If we do not do this (which BTW I do not think we will do, at least not soon enough) then we are headed for another dip into declining economic growth rates and very poor job creation. Too much of our money will be going overseas to support a growing economy at home. And by the way, a moribund economy will NOT help the adoption of the more expensive electic car technologies. It will only slow down the adoption of this much needed technology.

without the 2 steps I outlined above there is always.......

[4dsc]

29. BS alert here

Jonnie claims "The quickest way we have of dealing with the rise in petroleum prices is to increase ethanol usage"

Its damn funny for anyone to believe that gasoline price would drop if we just imported more ethanol.

[JohnWxy]

30. Not BS. Basic market economics. Increased supply of a comparable commodity will lower the price of

the competing commodities. This is understood by everyone in business.

Brazil can supply ethanol at a price below the price of gasoline. Increased supply of substitutable commodity will bring the price of the competing commodity down. Increased supply of a substitutable commodity at an initially lower price will bring the competing commodity price down even more (first commodity forced to compete with cheaper substitutable commodity) - the supplier of first commodity will have to take a cut in his margin to compete on price.

I didn't say increasing ethanol on the market would lower the price of gas. What I do say is that it will reduce the increase in the price of gas. I don't know if we can increase the supply of ethanol fast enough to actually cause the price of gas to go down. I suppose it's possible but without knowing just now much the price of gas is going to go up (based on increased demand as economy strengthens) and not knowing just how much increased supply of ethanol can be achieved (in a relatively short time period.. 1 or 2 years) this is impossible to predict.

But what you can say is an increased supply of an equivalent (substitutable) commodity will reduce the price or limit the price increase of the commodities in competition. This is a basic principle of market economics....that is...it is NOT bullshit.


... NOTE: we really do not know what the real price of oil is since there are substantial tax breaks and program subsidies enjoyed by the oil and natural gas industries. Estimates vary as to what the real price of oil is from $5.00 to $15.00 per gallo. Most of that range depends upon whether the estimate includes the military costs involved in securing our supply of imported oil... (Middle Eastern in particular).

see: The Real Price of Gas

[Fledermaus]

15. Yes, I've started blending my own premium fuel again.

I own a 1994 Mercedes C280. Mercedes spec 91 octane.

I mix 3 gallons regular with one gallon e85. Thats works out to about e21.

I save about 5 to 7 % on my fuel costs depending on the price differential.

[JohnWxy]

18. You really take things into your own hands! Huzzahs for you!

ONe thing that concerns me though 'Flyer': I know that blends up to 15% have been shown to be okay with fuel lines, gaskets and such. But I don't know about going over 15%. Have you considered this?

[Fledermaus]

20. Cars have to to handle up to 10% ethanol and its a used car.

Like I said, the rubber and seals have to handle 10% ethanol. There should be an engineered margin of error. In other words, the car should be able to handle something greater than 10%. However, I don't know what that value is.

I don't run e85 and I certainly would not do it to a new car.

[poopfuel]

25. Look up Orrie Swayze

he's got a lot of people in his South (or is it N orth) Dakota hometown running all kinds of vehicles on E85. No problems with gaskets, rubber, etc. Mileage does vary.
You can slap on a converter that will immediately make your car flex fuel if you wanna spend the bucks. alcoholcanbeagas.com has 'em. New cars, old cars, what have you. (unless you are talking carburetor era cars, no fuel injection, that's 30 years old)
There are now blender pumps as people are finding higher levels of ethanol mixed in increase mileage. And use less gasoline, of course.

You two might be interested in this piece.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2011/01/when-the-media-glosses-over-big-oils-sins?cmpid=WNL-Wednesday-January5-2011

[JohnWxy]

27. thanx for this info, for all of us, fecalfuel.

[Kennah]

26. If you have not read it ...

... read http://amazon.com/o/ASIN/0446549541">$20 Per Gallon.

I saw the effects of $4 a gallon firsthand as I ride a commuter train daily, but the effects elsewhere were profound.