Renewables could provide almost 50% of world's power by 2050: IEA

[jpak]

http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews.aspx?xmlpath=RSSFeed/HeadlineNews/ElectricPower/8867978.xml

Renewable resources could supply nearly half the world's electricity by
2050, under a low-carbon technology scenario published by the International
Energy Agency late Thursday.

In "Energy Technology Perspectives 2010," IEA says that a revolution in
energy technology is occurring, spearheaded by substantial increases in
renewables generation, particularly wind and solar power.

It warns, however, that "these encouraging developments represent but the
first small, fragmented steps on a long journey towards transforming the way
we supply and use energy ... recent studies indicate that climate change is
occurring even faster than previously expected."

The study offers several options -- not forecasts -- dubbed the BLUE
scenarios that could see world energy production shift toward renewable
energy, nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency and fuel
switching. The goal would be to slash energy-related CO2 releases almost 50%
by mid-century compared with 2005 levels -- even as primary energy use
increases 32%.

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[Javaman]

1. What will power the other 50%? nt

[TheWraith]

4. You can choose between nuclear and coal/oil/gas.

There is a right choice and a wrong choice.

[Dogmudgeon]

6. This same report is very pro-nuclear

Their LOW nuclear implementation scenario sets a 24% share for nuclear energy, and presupposes a massive increase in electricity demand. It also presupposes that carbon capture and storage will become a large, viable, and inexpensive industry.

Their HIGH nuclear scenario -- in which carbon capture doesn't work out -- is more like 40%.

They also foresee solar energy having a 16% share, with PV at 7% and CSP at 9%. I think that's unrealistic, owing to the need for large amounts of rare metals in semiconductor manufacture. If 16% is reachable at all, it will be with more thermal solar (CSP) like the DESERTEC project. On the other hand, the report is planning for 40 years in the future.

Wind is predicted to supply 11%. That seems low, considering the tremendous emphasis placed on wind energy in current policy.

Here's the http://www.iea.org/papers/2010/nuclear_roadmap.pdf">Nuclear Roadmap part of the executive summary. The IEA has a huge number of publications available for free -- but the Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 costs €80-120.

--d!

[JohnWxy]

2. recommended. It's possible IF we can commit to it.

[NickB79]

3. "The goal would be to slash energy-related CO2 releases almost 50%"

I thought that the latest projections called for an 80% reduction in CO2 to prevent catastrophic climate change?

Ah well, I'm sure Mother Nature will say "close enough, humanity, I'll let it slide this time".

[TheWraith]

5. You're correct, it's not enough.

In fact, our goal should be a 100% elimination of fossil fuels by 2050 if we want to avoid severely fucking up the planet. For that matter, 2020 wouldn't be too soon.