Gulf Oil Spill Is Bad, but How Bad?

[groovedaddy]

WASHINGTON — The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is bad — no one would dispute it. But just how bad?

Some experts have been quick to predict apocalypse, painting grim pictures of 1,000 miles of irreplaceable wetlands and beaches at risk, fisheries damaged for seasons, fragile species wiped out and a region and an industry economically crippled for years.

President Obama has called the spill “a potentially unprecedented environmental disaster.” And some scientists have suggested that the oil might hitch a ride on the loop current in the gulf, bringing havoc to the Atlantic Coast.

Yet the Deepwater Horizon blowout is not unprecedented, nor is it yet among the worst oil accidents in history. And its ultimate impact will depend on a long list of interlinked variables, including the weather, ocean currents, the properties of the oil involved and the success or failure of the frantic efforts to stanch the flow and remediate its effects.

As one expert put it, this is the first inning of a nine-inning game. No one knows the final score.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/04/us/04enviro.html?th&emc=th

[Arctic Dave]

1. As it it now, its bad. From here we have to talk about catastrophic.

Could the people and enviroment of the Gulf Coast get lucky, sure, but I wouldn't bet on them winning the game.

[BeFree]

2. Get lucky?

The gulf is screwed. It has been polluted to the max point it has ever been polluted. No one is lucky.

Will the pollution be managed as best as it can be managed?
That is the question. Luck has nothing to do with it.

[Arctic Dave]

3. I mean lucky in the context that the weather will not change for the worse.

Storms and wind patterns.

[kristopher]

5. Now imagine the same sort of weather watch for radiation from a Chernobyl scale nuclear event

[Nihil]

7. That's your problem isn't it? You keep using your imagination instead of your memory.

Or maybe you're having to "imagine" because that creates more
of a "scary atmosphere" whereas simply remembering what happened
doesn't?

From your past comments, you are not younger than me so either
you weren't paying attention at the time or your memory doesn't
work as well as your imagination.

[kristopher]

8. And that means what exactly?

Following the (slim) logic in your post, I'd have to ask if you think Arctic Dave and all the other readers of the forum are also in the age bracket you have an mind?

The imagination comes into play when you overlay Chernobyl's fallout pattern on the US with it centered on a reactor near where you live.

[Nihil]

9. That means that I was paying attention when it actually happened ...

... rather than "imagining" it decades after the event.

:shrug:

Your initial comment was:
>> Now imagine the same sort of weather watch for radiation from
>> a Chernobyl scale nuclear event

My response was:
> That's your problem isn't it? You keep using your imagination
> instead of your memory.

... along with three possible reasons for your behaviour:

1) maybe you're having to "imagine" because that creates more
of a "scary atmosphere" whereas simply remembering what
happened doesn't?

2) you weren't paying attention at the time

3) your memory doesn't work as well as your imagination

My suspicion is that it is a mixture of #1 & #2: you weren't
paying attention at the time (after all, it was outside the
borders of your country, never mind your state) and you like to
keep a "scary atmosphere" going whenever the N word is mentioned.

[Statistical]

4. Luck has a lot to do with it.

Current weather is keeping most of the oil away from shores.

If that changes there is little that cleanup crews can do but watch.

High winds & surf could even hamper efforts at the oil source. They force skimmers to return to port and destroy boons.

So sadly luck has a lot to do with it.

[jimlup]

6. I'd say it is the 3rd inning...

To push the analogy too far. The blowout itself was the opening inning. Discovering that BP was spinning numbers on the existance of the leak was the 2nd... now we're in the 3rd. Let's hope they can cap this thing!