(Mexico's Cantarell field) went from 60% (2005) to 21% of Mexico's total oil production by late 2009

[phantom power]

Mexico’s chief producing oil field, Cantarell, is in a declining level of production already representing an "emergency situation", according to the Hydrocarbon Undersecretary of the Energy Secretariat (SENER). Since 2005, Cantarell has shown a reduction of 770,000 bpd, which, valued at $70 a barrel, translates to an annual tax revenue loss of $272,425 million. In 2005, the oil field contributed 60% of total crude oil production (2.2 million bpd), by the end of 2009 it will only be around 21% (550,000 barrels per day). By 2017, Cantarell’s share will be 8.4% (255,000 bpd).

http://www.poder360.com/dailynews_detail.php?blurbid=3711

[hatrack]

1. Hmmm . . I'm sensing a trend, but I can't quite put my finger on it . . .

In fact, it's almost as if things are happening faster than expected.

Oh, I'm sorry - that should be Faster Than Expected.

[Javaman]

2. Expect an even bigger uptick of the violence along the border as

times (Mexican Economy) gets worse.

I expect full spill over sometime with in the next two years.

We are only seeing the previews now.

I live in Texas and there are so many things happening down there that aren't reported nationally. The grenade attacks were my personal fav. :(

[hatrack]

3. Yeah, Mexico's the beta for PO, just as Australia's the beta for climate breakdown

At least we'll kinda know what to expect in the next decade or two.

[bhikkhu]

4. ...and oil exports projected to end by 2012

which is the loss of all petroleum related income, except what is generated by selling it to themselves.

As far as predicting the fallout, I think we will see:

- the de-nationalization of some fields, particularly deep water. Big oil should be back in the game on favorable terms.

- not a whole lot will come of it, beyond the usual corporate profits.

- Mexico becomes a failed state, without the resources to maintain basic government services.

We haven't really seen this happen anywhere else, as the decline side of the oil curve is a fairly new thing. Plenty of large governmental entities have overreached historically, however, and found themselves unsustainable in the face of resource shortages or climate change. Typically its a matter of decentralizing - first the national government exits the stage and leaves the states to fend for themselves, then the state governments fold and the counties (or whatever they call them in Mexico) manage their own affairs independently, and so forth. Who knows...it doesn't look like we will have to wait long in any case.

[joshcryer]

5. 2012 :O

OMG

[Braulio]

6. Venezuela production is also falling

There's an interesting untold story: Venezuela's production has been falling - if we look at OPEC's records it's down to about 2.3 million bpd. However, the government has maintained a fiction that it's producing more than it really is. The other interesting fact: lacking oil may be better for those latin american economies, because they would tend to develop more like the Asian tigers. Chile, for example, seems to be doing fairly well without having a lot of oil.