The Excruciating Economics of Electric Cars

[kristopher]

The Excruciating Economics of Electric Cars

Published October 23, 2009

With oil prices reaching record levels for the year—and potentially heading higher—the prospects for electricity-powered cars is also on the rise. Barclays Capital said, "The groundwork for a sustainable move into higher price ranges has been laid." Deutsche Bank said prices could surge to $100 a barrel in the next two quarters if the US dollar continues to weaken—with relatively little effect on a global economic recovery. Rising oil prices alone are not enough to ensure the future of electric cars—but there are clear signs of a massive transition to plug-in hybrids and electric cars.

“Electric transportation is still expensive. We cannot overpromise and underdeliver and hype this.”

Nancy Gioia, director of electrification
Ford

The industry to produce lithium ion batteries—they key component of electric and plug-in hybrid cars—is ready to boom. In a report released on Wednesday, Pike Research projects that lithium ion batteries will make up more than 20 percent of the global $4.1 billion energy storage sector within the next decade. The Mercedes S400 hybrid will be the first mainstream production vehicle to use a lithium battery, when it’s introduced later this year. The next generation of plug-in hybrids and electric cars will all utilize lithium ion batteries, which can provide more power and energy storage in a smaller lighter weight package. "While lithium ion was once limited to consumer electronics devices, it is quickly becoming the battery of choice for electric vehicle manufacturers," said Pike Research analyst David Link.

Sanyo, the Japanese electronics company, announced Wednesday a major push to mass-produce lithium ion cells for plug-in hybrid vehicles starting in 2011. ...

>snip<


Unstoppable Transition

The excruciating economics of plug-in cars is unlikely to stop the technology’s momentum. Industry and political leaders believe the transition from gas-powered vehicles to cars that charge up at home is a means to create new clean tech jobs, rejuvenate the auto industry, and address environmental and energy security issues. “We stand on the threshold of a real revolution in the propulsion of our vehicles,” Ford Executive Chairman Bill Ford Jr. said during a speech at The Business of Plugging In, a conference held in Detroit this week. Henrik Fisker, CEO of Fisker Automotive, which makes the Fisker Karma plug-in hybrid, said, “This is the biggest shift in the car industry probably since we went from the horse to the gasoline engine.”


http://www.hybridcars.com/economics/excruciating-economics-electric-cars-26194.html

the short body of the article is worth the click.

[gateley]

1. K&R -- It's a lot bigger step than hybrids, which it seems is all

they were talking about for the longest time. Biden (while Senator) introduced and got funding for lithium-ion battery research which thrilled me, being a Tesla fan (but sadly not an owner). The costs may be excruciating at first, but I doubt they'll surpass what oil may rise to. Thanks for this article!

[Braulio]

11. Hybrid makes sense, electric doesn't

Hybrid vehicles do make sense, because gasoline packs so much energy per unit mass. Battery vehicles don't make so much sense. Besides, if we start building millions of lithium battery powered vehicles, the price of lithium will go way up, so it'll lose competitiveness.

[comtec]

18. An electric motor is cheap and relatively easy to make compared to a hybrid as they are in use

That's relatively.
I made a simple electric motor for my electronics courses.
Nail, and winding that goes one way or another, and some permanent magnets.
Of course one to move a car requires more engineering, but the tech is at least 100 years old.

"Je cannae break the laws of physics Captain!"

A ICE is 100+ year old technology. Pretty reliable.
Using one to power the other is relatively simple, as pointed out, it has greater energy storage than a battery.

However making a hybrid that fuses these two different methods of locomotion is NOT simple.

The Ford (?) Volt is not a horrible idea. You have a purely electric auto, that has a ICE engine (a generator) to produce energy.

This is a very cheap solution to a very expensive problem.
Want to make it burn cleaner?
Use natural gas, or veggie oil as opposed to pure petrol/diesel.
A small motor properly tuned, etc, can generate a great deal of energy, or just enough depending on the need.
The bulk of the RnD should only be towards creating a aerodynamic design - while expensive is no where near as much as a new kind of engine i'd imagine.

The point is, the car industry are dragging their feet because they are being paid off by the oil companies to do so.
IIRC the battery system used by the old EV 1 was revolutionary... however it was bought by some oil company and tossed down the memory hole.

Soemthign to keep in mind, is that a great many advances are discovered NOT in car company labs, but in the universities that are FEDERALLY FUNDED!

It seems insane to me what we just give up these patents, as opposed to saying "OK you get to 'own' this for 10 years. but then it's public domain as we put money into developing this. if this becomes very useful or you abuse your temporary monopoly, we make it immediately public domain, and hit you with a big fat fine!"

but that's insane and overly optimistic that our government will ever do something sane like that.

[Braulio]

26. What a hodgepodge of ideas

I really like it when I make a single point and the answer covers from A to Z, LOL. Here it goes:

A) Electric cars use batteries. Batteries don't store energy as well as hydrocarbon fuels, and they cost a lot more. It takes a generator to generate the electricity stored in batteries. Therefore the full cycle cost involves a lot more than your simple electric motor.

B) There isn't enough vegetable oil to power the world's vehicle fleet. Using biofuels in large quantities makes poor people starve.

C) There isn't enough natural gas to power the world's vehicle fleet.

D) Oil companies don't pay off car companies not to build electric cars.

E) A simple hybrid is cheaper, easier to build than an electric vehicle. Check the going price.

And that's all I got to say about that.

[gateley]

20. I'm not as concerned about the money and power as I am about

continuing to spew fossil fuel goop into the environment.

I'm hopeful that other types of energy will emerge. "They" seem to look no further than what is currently viable.

[AtheistCrusader]

49. I can get about 90% of my driving needs done

with the off-the-shelf Prius, and the extra aftermarket battery pack that goes in the spare tyre well, without the gas engine ever coming on. Moreso, if I could remove the weight of the useless gas engine, and support systems.

I'd jump on a pure-battery Prius with no gas components, a slightly more powerful electric motor, and 2x-3x the battery capacity in a heartbeat.

(It's a little wonderpowered when it's running in battery-only, but there's a lot of weight to be saved by cutting out the gas crap.)

[madrchsod]

2. bolivia and china has 50% of the world`s cheap lithium

there`s other methods to extract lithium but it`s expensive. the internal combustion engine is`t going away anytime soon...

[kristopher]

5. Lithium is not a constraint.

That has been debunked any number of times.

I think the internal combustion engine is going to follow a path similar to that of rear wheel drive as it was supplanted by front wheel drive. The match isn't precise, but there are strong commonalities that make it reasonable to conclude that large scale (not universal) adoption of EV technology is getting ready to burst out.

[NNadir]

3. I personally can't wait to have lithium and solvents leaching into our waterways.

I can't wait to our car CULTists, with there consumer mentality of distain for their planet try to build 1 billion of these things, and then try to pretend that the conversion of dangerous fossil fuels to heat to electricity to chemical energy back to electricity to mecahnical energy will involve thermodynamically.

Of course the number of car CULTist fundies who have ever opened a thermodynamics text is, um, same as it was 7 years ago when everyone was talking about their swell electric cars, zero.

In fact, it is the same as it was when the electric car enthusiastists passed the California "ZEV" requirement in 1990, insisting that 10% of the cars sold in California by 2003 would be electric.

How'd that work out.

There are one billion dangerous cars on this planet, and each of them consumes more energy than the entire per capita expenditure of the world's poorest 3.5 billion people.

The number of oblivious car CULTists who understand what this means morally is the same as it has been for years and years and years and years here, zero.

[excess_3]

4. still, the EV cuts the Middle East out of the deal .nt

[Braulio]

12. I suppose we can generate electricity with cow dung

Otherwise, we'll need Middle East oil for a long time

[comtec]

6. Why are you here?

seriously I don't think i've ever actually seen you post anything that WASN'T negative or just pure asshoish?

WHY ARE YOU ON A DEMOCRATIC BOARD?!!?

You really don't belong here.

Go back to free republic or whatever sit hole you came out of.

Nader lost!
every time
and took the greens down with him!

Nader would have rolled back female rights half a century (that is eliminate them)

Whatever he ONCE was... he no longer is!

And there are plenty of cleaner alternatives to Li based batteries.

L3ess efficient, but cleaner such as the fly wheel, and sugar-based electric generation, even -god help me- hydrogen cel, which works great until there's a spark....

You only bitch, you never offer real solutions.
I'm neither going to report or Ig you.
but lord you're close to it.

but seriously.. leave this board, for everyone';s sake.

[Ichingcarpenter]

7. he wants nuclear powered cars, refrigerators, stoves and hand warmers

Works for the industry or didn't you know?

[comtec]

8. Heh heh =] thanks I needed a laugh

but why do we put up with him then?

[Dead_Parrot]

16. Who's "We"? nt

[joshcryer]

15. Actually, he is anti-car culture (note his capitalization of "cult" in "culture).

He doesn't even think nuclear can manage our addiction to cars.

[depakid]

9. Errr... NNadir is no Nader fan, LOL

And your facts are wrong, btw.

[joshcryer]

13. Don't misunderstand, NNadir is a hard line environmentalist, *zero emissions* is his standard.

I can agree with that goal to a large extent. We diverge in how we think it can be brought about, but in the end zero emissions is a noble goal, even if people call you stupid, naive, and basically malign you at every turn for arguing for it.

(Note that by zero emissions I do not include water vapor and waste heat in any such calculations.)

[kristopher]

22. Bullshit

He is an advocate for nuclear power - period. His rants related to cars and economic justice do not stand scrutiny and are clearly nothing but an attempt to greenwash his support for Republican energy policy.

[joshcryer]

24. You only see one side of his position.

Nothing more.

[kristopher]

25. His position only has one side.

Nothing more.

[IrateCitizen]

37. Pot, meet kettle....

:eyes:

[Ichingcarpenter]

41. We go way back to Smirking Chimp then joined DU

I know his writings and our discussions from over 6 years.


I respect his intellect but not his prognosis, advocacy nor his
intellectual honesty since he lives in a very rural area and most
have a car.

I think he's a necessary foil for some now...... he used to be my Professor Moriaty but now has become the Mrs. Hudson of the status quo

I always love to read his stuff and am glad he is here.

[madokie]

17. You mean you missed the memo that went around a while back

that big guy had a lock on all the intelligence on this board,
I thought so :-)

Fraud comes to mind actually

[IrateCitizen]

38. Shouldn't you be on a ledge somewhere?

Seriously. It's an internet discussion board. Get a grip.

[dmallind]

10. Let's go back to subsistence farming! Malthus was my hero!

[joshcryer]

14. Ridding ourselves of natural gas based fertilizers is a good goal.

Closed cycle ecosystems can make this happen. NNadir has discussed this sort of waste reuse at length before.

[Kolesar]

19. If you got it, a car brought it

eom

[Terry in Austin]

21. "Electric car" is kind of a misleading term

"The Car" is not just a four-wheeled self-powered vehicle -- it's an element of the "car system" that serves as our primary transport infrastructure.

All the elements of this system co-evolved in an organic, highly-optimized way: the highways, the streets, the parking facilities, the laws, the gas stations, the shops, the manufacturing channels, the oil production and distribution, the other support industries; also, expectations about performance and utility, and expectations about the social role of this mode of transport.

I would argue that it was all optimized for The Car as we know it right now, which means internal combustion. It's unlikely we'll be able to change one element without significantly affecting all the others -- we're talking about transforming the whole system.

Putting an electric motor in a vehicle is not the same thing as creating a car that happens to run on electricity. If and when we truly have an "electric car," it will mean that we have a whole system that's optimized for it, and I'm willing to bet that that system will bear a lot less resemblance to the present one than many people assume.

The last time we saw this sort of transformation, the term was "horseless carriage." It implied that we simply swap out the hay-burner for a gasoline-burner, and go on as before, only faster and farther. Of course, it didn't quite play out that way. I think we're facing similar situation with the term "electric car."

[kristopher]

23. Interesting conceptualization

It is true to a degree, but the substitution of electricity for gasoline is a much smaller systemic change than fossil ICEs for feed and horses.

The idea of "a whole system that's optimized" for electric vehicles is important, though. That is the concept that makes vehicle to grid (V2G) such an important component of a renewable energy grid. If you were to expand the scope of your perspective to include the coming changes all energy sectors (not just transportation) then I think your point gains a great deal of legitimacy.

A renewable, distributed grid that incorporates the personal transportation sector is as fundamental an infrastructure change as any we've ever accomplished.

[excess_3]

27. the infrastructure for EVs is already in place

the 'change' is ...

the US economy is no longer dependent
on the Middle East.

[drm604]

28. Unfortunately it is not already in place.

Millions of people have no way to plug in at home to charge their car since they can't park close enough to their house or apartment to plug in. For example, I live in an apartment on the second floor of a duplex. Even if I lived on the first floor, I park at the curb and only occasionally manage to park in front of my building. Even if I lived on the first floor and could always park directly in front of the building, I would have to run a long extension cord across the front lawn and across a public sidewalk.

A switch to nothing but pure non-hybrid plug-in at home EV will require a large infrastructure investment. I'm not even sure what that infrastructure would look like in cases like mine and many others.

I'm not against the idea of EVs but we will need some kind of charging infrastructure that is not currently in place and will require some very creative thinking.

[kristopher]

29. That's small potatoes.

Yes, it seems like a big deal, but it actually is small potatoes compared to what is involved in developing something like an ethanol or hydrogen distribution infrastructure. What you are speaking of is often referred to as last mile architecture and, as the name implies, it is the final little piece of the journey. While you and many others like you do have issues to address, there are a couple of hundred million in the US who do not have to do anything more (initially) than run an extension cord in the garage or from the house to the driveway. I don't know (nor need to know) where you park your car or the obstacles that are between you and easy access to an EV charging portal, to feel pretty sure that there is going to be a place for you to charge up before too long.

You can rest assured that creative people are working on it. If you are interested in learning more you might do searches on PHEVs at the websites of NREL, EPRI, and FERC.

[joshcryer]

30. What is significantly different about ethanol that prevents its use in the gasoline infrastructure?

[kristopher]

31. .

Figure it out yourself.

[joshcryer]

32. Substantiate your failure of reasoning.

[kristopher]

33. Use the google or read a book.

[joshcryer]

35. Or I could just ignore your unsubstantiated claims.

:shrug:

[kristopher]

48. You seem to be confused... again.

It doesn't matter to reality what you believe. The facts are what they are and your refusal to do a simple online search for readily available information just paints you as someone that thinks their wants and preferences are more important than reality. If you want to ignore what I say then it only means that you willfully remain in a worsening state of ignorance - the problems with ethanol are still there either way.

[joshcryer]

51. If you actually had something to say it would be trivial to say it.

Basically you're playing the ambiguous game because you have no substance to your claims.

[kristopher]

54. I did say it

The ethanol option comes with some major distribution problems. You are too lazy to look for answers to your own questions and to make it even worse, you feel entitled to demand that others spoon feed you information.

Sometimes that is OK but with you, the next step is that you almost always still don't understand the issue and proceed to draw idiotic conclusions on which you base idiotic assertions. That phase is sometimes mitigated a little by making you look it up yourself.

What I find to be a real hoot is that you think your tantrums and demands are somehow proving I don't know the subject. Think about that - you think stomping your foot because YOU DON'T KNOW SOMETHING somehow demonstrates that the person giving you guidance is similarly uninformed.

Let me repeat that: you think stomping your foot because YOU DON'T KNOW SOMETHING somehow demonstrates that the person giving you guidance is similarly uninformed.

All it shows is that you argue about things you are uninformed on, and that your ability to reason logically is severely impaired.

[IrateCitizen]

39. It is a highly corrosive fuel

If we switched to ethanol, it would eat away the majority of internal combustion engines currently out on the roadways within a short period of time.

[joshcryer]

42. Internal combution engines don't run on electricity, either, you'll be changing tech either way.

[kristopher]

43. That is a big part of the infrastructure issue

Petroleum pipelines can't carry ethanol without corroding. They need to have the inside coated with an epoxy compound.

Then there would be the matter of building the distillation plants....

[joshcryer]

45. How many pipelines are used for gasoline?

[kristopher]

47. Google is your friend..

[Braulio]

52. Six

You may purchase a gasoline pipeline map from the US department of Energy. There are six major product lines in the USA. Most of the transportation is done using crude oil lines to refineries, which in turn distribute their products via tanker trucks. Some refineries use short length pipelines to distribute products to stations located about 50 Km from the refinery, to avoid traffic.

[Braulio]

53. Ethanol hydrates (absorbs water)

While Ethanol is very hydrophilic, gasoline isn't. Thus ethanol tends to absorb water as it is transported (any time its exposed to air, it soaks up the water from the air). Thus transportation systems carrying ethanol have very different specifications than gasoline transports. Furthermore, American ethanol is a scam, it relies on intensive subsidies, and it's hardly pro-environment. Brazilian ethanol, based on sugar cane, is definitely green and sustainable, but American ethanol is not. Because the US government has put a high tariff on ethanol imports, Brazilian ethanol is kept out of the US market.

[drm604]

34. I think it's more difficult than you realize.

You dismiss it by saying that there are a couple of hundred million (Where do you get those numbers, by the way?) who won't have a problem and then say that many others have issues to address, as if it's up to us to address them.

I don't know how familiar you are with urban neighborhoods with block after block after block of row houses, many of which are duplexes or even triplexes, and many of which are couples with two cars. People fight over parking places, particularly in winter. The scenario I imagine would be some sort of public charging stations along the curbs on both sides of the block. We already have people who park so as to take up two spaces. Now they'll be blocking two charging stations. In the winter there's never enough spaces because of the shoveled snow piled up along the block by people digging their cars out. There are fist fights over parking spaces in winter. Imagine the fights that will ensue over unblocked charging stations. Imagine running out of power because you couldn't find an open station, or because you had to park next to one of the handful that will always be out on any block due to vandalism or simply breaking down.

These stations would have to dispense electricity based on some sort of credit or debit card since you never know where you're going to have to park. So during the night someone's liable to come along, pull the plug, and put it in their vehicle getting a charge on your dime. Sure there could be a locking mechanism, but people are clever and they'll find a way even if it means breaking your vehicle.

And who's going to pay for these millions of charging stations? Would the revenue earned pay for the upkeep? Maybe it would, I don't know. Will companies decide that some neighborhoods will be profitable and others won't?

The one scenario I've heard that might work is one where service stations have equipment for rapidly changing vehicles' batteries. You pull in and they swap your current battery for a freshly charged one. There are some logistics problems but it might work.

[joshcryer]

36. I think those are implementation details that can go either way, really.

In city environments it bodes well because wires are buried under sidewalks (meters are electrically powered in any big city I've been to in the last 15 years). So you plug your vehicle in whenever you park (or heck it could plug itself in if the system is intelligently designed; imagine plug holes in the ground which an extension cable plugs itself in to as long as you park properly).

Urban environments are more difficult to deal with for the reasons you cite, however, it's conceivable that a charging station could be set up for the labor cost of, say, installing a new street lamp, or wiring up ones yard for lighting (or a better example might be installing a sprinkler system).

Also, since V2G can utilize a smart grid, cars themselves would be able to identify themselves, so when you register your car at the DMV your cars unique ID is registered, too, allowing you to plug your car in to any outlet and it basically gets charged to your bill. While such a system could be exploitable, it would be difficult to steal another cars ID and such overuse (by thieves) would be readily verifiable in the smart grid, allowing a ticketing body to go around finding these thieves very quickly. You charge your car every evening on 6th street but suddenly your ID is being charged in 10 different outlets across the city, quite easy to see that someone is cloning it and trying to get a freebie.

Arguably costs could go down so significantly as to render costs nothing more than a small vehicle tax. $200 flat fee every month keeps you on the road, etc.

[Terry in Austin]

40. Ah, those devilish details

:evilgrin:

[kristopher]

44. I didn't "dismiss" the issue.

I put those cases in the larger perspective.

Yes, I'm familiar with the type of housing you are talking about and as I said it presents difficulties. I don't know where you got the idea that I expect the residents to be responsible for solving the problem; it is clearly a public policy and public infrastructure issue so it would be addressed by governmental action at various levels.

Frankly a large part of the answer to urban transport is better public transportation. I know it isn't a viable option in most cases, but that is probably going to change in areas of high population density such as you describe. Josh has it right on the role V2G will play - it will allow your car to both buy and sell power back to the utilities by automatically logging into your account, so eventually the economics of charging can be extremely easy to manage.

The battery swap idea is one that is probably already outdated by both the adoption of the series hybrid drive and the ongoing, rapid increase in battery capabilities.

The "couple of million" is a WAG based on the fact that there are about 140 million single family homes in the nation, most have more than one driver, and most have off-road parking or a garage. The reason I threw it out is that as the EV market ramps up, there will be a large market that doesn't need a great deal of additional infrastructure. That means the efforts and resources can be focused on bringing areas like you live into some sort of system that will accommodate their transportation needs.

I don't say that you will necessarily like what the outcome is though. For example, when I lived in Tokyo my parking spot cost $120 a month (and it was cheap) and it was located a 20 minute walk away from our home. Because of the high price of gas, we used mostly public transportation for almost all our travel. I don't know how things will work in all instances but I do know that this change is coming; we can't afford to do anything else.

[joshcryer]

46. Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but V2G doesn't require *all* cars to *always* idle-connect.

So converting a Wal-Mart parking so every parking space has V2G connectors isn't *necessary* for the system to work.

[AtheistCrusader]

50. But there will be plenty of early adopters who CAN do pure EV without major

infrastructure update. Hell, I've already got a 220v outlet within a couple feet of my garage door. I put it there for a 100 gallon air compressor I never bought. Many of the EV designs include charging off 110v as well, so for lots and lots of potential users, that's not even an issue.

Early adopters will sustain the market, while solutions come along that will serve you as well, such as curbside charging (imagine a parking meter you pay to rent the space, and charge your vehicle at the same time), and other solutions that may happen at the city level.