GREAT FALLS — Twice a day, National Weather Service meterologists launch a 10-foot-wide balloon with a styrofoam payload high into the sky. Sensors send data from up to 100,000 feet back an hour later, which is fed to mainframe computers in Silver Springs, Md. Those results are deciphered into a forecast and packaged in time for the evening TV news.
This winter, it's been virtually the same story, day after day after day. Montana has been stuck in a weather pattern that has driven up temperatures, siphoned off snowpack and worried farmers and wildland firefighters. A high pressure ridge has camped out for most of the winter, directing storms to the north and the south of us.
Around Helena, the evidence of drought is plain:
- February was the third-driest month since 1880
- temperatures are about 5 degrees above normal
- Lincoln has the least snow in 56 years
- what snowpack remains is melting faster than usual
- and we've had only one "cold shot" this winter — minus 25 on Jan. 15 — when normally there should be three to five.
Ready to let the lawn die and spend a wildfire-filled August elsewhere? Hang on a minute. February is typically the driest month of the year, and what happens later in March and April matters more, says Steve Brueske, meterologist-in-charge at the NWS's Great Falls office. "If you don't get anything in February, you're only down an eighth," he says. "If you don't get any rain in March or April, you're down an inch. "That's our make it or break it time."
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