IEA - Enjoy Gas Prices While You Can - Agency Projects $100/bbl Average Through 2015 - NYT

[hatrack]

The global economic slump that has curbed energy demand and pushed oil prices down in recent months may provide only a short-lived respite for consumers, according to the world’s top energy forecaster. The International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy, warned on Thursday that the supply shortfalls that pushed oil prices into triple-digit territory this year are far from resolved, and could lead to a new period of high prices.

Oil has plummeted from its summer peak in recent weeks as the financial and economic slowdown reduced consumption. But many analysts believe oil could bounce back quickly once economic growth resumes. On Thursday, oil futures in New York settled at $60.77 a barrel, down $4.53, their lowest level in 19 months. Prices are now 58 percent below their peak of $145.29 a barrel in July.

As a result of higher prices and lower growth, the energy agency slashed its forecast for global oil demand by more than 10 million barrels a day over the next two decades. It now expects oil consumption to reach 106 million barrels a day in 2030, up from 86 million barrels a day this year.

But even with the lowered demand forecast, the agency warned that the period of lower prices may not last as producers fail to increase oil supplies to meet the developing world’s rising needs. It expects prices to average more than $100 a barrel through 2015, and possibly rise to $200 a barrel by 2030.

EDIT

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/business/07energy.html

[sinkingfeeling]

1. Yep, it's running about $1.93 here. I was thinking at lunch it just has pennies to go until it would

be the same as when W came into office.

[NNadir]

2. It is essential to the environment that oil and other dangerous fossil fuels be priced high.

I am not saying that rapacious dangerous fossil fuel companies should be given the money, but it really is time for a carbon tax.

A big carbon tax that reflects the fact that dangerous fossil fuel waste can never be retained at any price.

[bananas]

3. I'm glad high-speed rail passed in California

A lot of people voted against it because we don't need it "now",
but it's going to take 10-20 years to build it, we'll need it then.

[Javaman]

4. 100 bucks a barrel if we are lucky. at a rate of decline of 9.1 year on year

we will be lucky to have $100 bucks a barrel in 2015.

[curse of greyface]

5. Well I hope that doesn't mean gas prices will go up. I'd hate to disturb DU'ers

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4437024

$100 a barrel by 2015? I'll take the over on that number.

[Nihil]

6. That thread was *really* disappointing.

I obviously spend too much time in E/E as the number of simply dumb
people on there was frightening ... talk about living in denial?
Boy are they in for a shock ...

:-(

[Delphinus]

7. Uh-huh.

:(

[Nihil]

9. And to top it all ...

... those wankers in GD managed to get him tombstoned then celebrated it.

Great. That will encourage people to believe that something changed.

Mob rule is alive & well thanks to the pig-ignorant masses of either
political inclination.

:puke:

[GliderGuider]

10. If one needed any further evidence of why we're screwed,

There it is. Tombstone a person for making and defending an argument against consumption. Jesus.

[phantom power]

12. Clever, clever primates.

[Dead_Parrot]

13. Homo Sapiens

:sarcasm:

[Nihil]

16. Yeah ... and this is supposed to be the smarter of the two halves of the Party ...

... you know, the part that has been talking about "change" for the
last year or so and now it's on the verge of being capable of producing
"change", the supporters fall back into the morass of "Fuck it, I've got
mine and I'll shoot anyone who tries to take it away".

:shrug:

I'm having a crap week on the personal front (and trying not to let this
creep into my DU side) but things like this really do not help ...

[Dead_Parrot]

17. I recommend a course of beer...

It works wonders. Although possibly not the piss I'm drinking at the moment - I've just worked out why it's so damn cheap (60p a pint in real money)

Sigh. It's nights like this I realise I've moved over 11,000 miles from the nearest pint of Jennings Sneck Lifter. :(

[Nihil]

18. Probably a good move.

I'll be lifting a glass to absent friends at 21:00 tonight
as the list has got longer recently (though it will probably be
red wine for me). Will add a mental note for the still living
ones who are suffering such sad deprivation as yours.

Thanks for the thought.

:toast:

[GliderGuider]

8. Even factoring out the latest price super-spike, this is a low estimate

I think we should easily manage to hit $300/bbl by 2015. $8.00/gallon gasoline? No sweat.

[hunter]

11. The worst possible outcome is continued low prices.

These low prices are indicative of the sort of economic decay that will only accelerate declines in extraction.

The economic infrastructure required to extract and refine the most difficult oils may be deteriorating rapidly by 2015. Oil might still be $100 a barrel but that price won't be high enough to support things like deep offshore oil production, extreme arctic oil development, or the extensive and sophisticated refining of heavy high sulfur crudes, tar sands, or shales.

Low prices will be the consequence of demand destruction. Fewer people will be driving or flying anywhere, and the airline and automobile industries will be moribund.

The implicit assumption of microeconomics -- that there are mathematical relationships of supply, demand, and price -- assume that all other aspects of the economy are stable. That assumption is false when the economic infrastructure itself is almost entirely founded upon the extraction of a single resource like oil. As the production of oil declines for simple physical reasons, the primary reason being that we've used up most of the easy to extract oil, then the price of oil loses it's value as a signal in the marketplace.

I strongly suspect these falling oil prices mark the beginning of an economic depression.

[excess_3]

14. the electric car is coming .n/t

[Nihil]

15. Lucky electric car ... (n/t)