Former Energy Minister - Russian Oil Peak Likely Within 2 Years - Forbes

[hatrack]

"Oil exports from Russia - the world's second-largest oil producer - may decrease within two years, a top Russian oil industry expert warned Tuesday.

Yuri Shafranik, head of Russia's Oil and Gas Industrialists' Union and a former energy minister, said the International Energy Agency forecasts that Russia will sustain oil production growth for the next two or three years, after which it is likely to decline, the Interfax news agency reported.

"Oil production has almost peaked, and further growth is only possible if price trends are good, so exports will be automatically restricted two years from now," Shafranik was quoted as saying by Interfax.

Shafranik cautioned that Russia still possesses unexplored oil fields and he said production could be sustained by direct foreign investment."

EDIT

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2004/11/09/ap1642750.html

[Dissenting_Prole]

1. Confused

Didn't Russia's extraction peak in the late-1980s?

[hatrack]

2. 1987, if memory serves

It's possible that this may be a second and lower peak of production, much as American oil production shows the impact of Prudhoe Bay coming on line post-1970. After the 1970 peak a second and lower peak appears in the late 1970s when plotted.

It may also be that the 1987 peak was lower than what he's projecting here, but I wonder. Samotlor, which was the last true supergiant the Soviets found, ran flat-out for about 5-6 years (reserve managment decision) and then began to tail off rapidly. Haven't heard of anything comparable being discovered since the Wall came down, but would be happy to take the word of anyone with superior information.

Also, when this article refers to "Russian oil", I assume that they are strictly sticking to discoveries within the post-1991 borders and not tossing in Azerbaijan, Turkmenestan, etc.