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UN Climate Chief Rosy on 50pc (Greenhouse) Gases Cut (by 2050)

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OKIsItJustMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 05:59 PM
Original message
UN Climate Chief Rosy on 50pc (Greenhouse) Gases Cut (by 2050)
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g2nOeKco84bcX1XU_jfIhgrE_y0wD8UBRFG82

UN Climate Chief Rosy on 50pc Gases Cut

By EDITH M. LEDERER

DAVOS, Switzerland (AP) — The U.N. climate chief predicted Wednesday that the world will reach the goal of cutting greenhouse gases 50 percent by 2050 and said the U.S. economic slowdown should spur governments to take bolder action in confronting global warming.

Yvo de Boer said governments have to move away from taking "small incremental steps" and change direction — as Norway did this month with the announcement that it will become "carbon neutral" by 2030.

Others at the World Economic Forum warned, however, that the technology to sharply cut emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases still needs to be developed.

De Boer, who presided over last month's U.N. climate conference in Bali, Indonesia, said nations must not be driven away from their agreement to adopt a blueprint for fighting global warming by 2009 because of the U.S. financial turmoil.

...
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cloudythescribbler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 06:16 PM
Response to Original message
1. We MUST go WAY beyond reducing Greenhouse emissions 50% by 2050 -- NET NEGATIVE well BEFORE that
These goals are based on models that EVERY YEAR turn out to be WAY overoptimistic. Norway is out in front now seeking to be Carbon neutral (100% reduction in footprint) by 2030, but even if that were to happen GLOBALLY, we might still be up proverbial shit creek without a paddle.

It seems that a MUCH more drastic approach will be needed to avoid damage that is FAR greater in cost and burden than the burden of shifting to alternative energy, something that could have been and should have been started in the 70s in a big way, when it was being advocated, while the power elite had other things to worry about (like suppressing authentic progressive dissent)

Priorities are priorities
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OKIsItJustMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. We also need to be realistic
Our very first challenge will be to stabilize carbon emissions.
Then, our next challenge will be to actually reduce carbon emissions.
Carbon neutral isn't going to happen any time soon. I doubt I will live to see it.
Net negative before 2050!? I'm sorry; I'd love to see it; but I just don't think it will happen.
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cloudythescribbler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 03:11 AM
Response to Reply #2
4.  If something is ECOLOGICALLY NECESSARY -- people need to ADVOCATE it to MAKE it mainstream! nt
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Nihil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 08:20 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. It is easier to speed up a moving object than start it moving from rest.
In that sense, it will be easier to tighten the restrictions/strategies
that are put in place now (and that already have the public behind them)
than to get enough momentum to go straight to a carbon-negative lifestyle.

Most people (certainly in Europe) agree that we need to cut down our
carbon emissions significantly. Those objecting to the need are in a
sufficiently small minority that they can't block action. (I'm talking
here about the overall aims, not the arguments between different ways
to meet those goals.)

If the strategy was to go straight from a seriously carbon-positive life
to a seriously carbon-negative life then you would find that a large
chunk of the previously supportive public would turn, dig their heels
in and say "No chance" (or "Non" or "Nei" or whatever).

The most vital action we have to do TODAY is to get that inertia working
for us so we can roll straight over the wannabe-roadblocks of deniers.

If the driver of a bus doing 60mph said that there seems to be a barricade
ahead so hang on while he brakes hard, the passengers will hang on (though
some might mutter & curse while doing so).

If the driver said to hang on while he throws the bus into reverse ...

:shrug:
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cloudythescribbler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 10:49 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Flaws in this logic -- starting w/ OF COURSE you have to reduce emissions before you eliminate them
The notion of counterposing net NEGATIVE global warming footprint advocacy to any and all intermediate measures is misleading. It is tautological that you have to cut emissions, and drastically, before you can reduce them to zero or near zero. Then further measures (increased forestation, building air filters that would sequester unwanted substances from the atmosphere etc) would be required.

By the logic of this post, Norway is making a TERRIBLE mistake in aiming OPENLY for no net carbon footprint by 2030. This is a silly logic, built upon the straw-man premise of political reaction building.

To try to put this is real world terms, CLEARLY if Norway has enacted net zero footprint, many other countries will either follow suit or have FACTIONS in politics calling for them to do so, especially in the other nations with the most progressive ecology policies. Similarly, Norway's more aggressive action inspires countries that are doing little or nothing to do more.

The same logic I am using applies to the bus. If the bus driver says we are headed in the wrong direction, he must FIRST put on the brakes BEFORE going into reverse (or turning around). Part of the fallacy is that the DRIVER is personified as ONE person -- those creating the policies ('in the drivers' seat, so to speak) and those 'announcing' the policies and the full range of advocates. But in the real world, authentic progressives in the blogosphere have virtually zero power. But we and various advocates, almost by definition within movements fairly marginal to society or at least to the power brokers of the mainstream, can INTRODUCE the issue of net negative emissions BOTH to contrast with the grudging policies argued for now, and for the fact that while people like Gore are calling attention to global warming (which he was doing 16 years ago in his book, which I read then, EARTH IN THE BALANCE), but their SOLUTIONS are insufficient. If Gore would at least argue that PLANET-WIDE we should aim to match Norway in its 2030 goal, the whole range of policies now being considered, including by Democrats in Congress, will no longer be seen as sufficient when in fact they are not.

In short, given the overall nature of the situation, it is INDEED easier to accelerate a movement already talking amongst its so-called "vanguard" about net negative greenhouse footprint (NNGF?) to include a broader segment of the public then it is to first lure people into a false sense of security that the kind of measures advocated by Al Gore and Nancy Pelosi are more or less sufficient, only to realize that they lead to catastrophe (only slightly less rapidly than the status quo).

Indeed, this has been true throughout the history of politics. People didn't IMAGINE anything like the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act until they were advocated. And while at first only a few might have so advocated, later more did. We have people advocating an end to imperialism, zero WMDs globally, full-scale "rights" for animals, and other issues. SOMETIMES, as with gay marriage, the MOST extreme policy (from the standpoint of those resistant to an idea overall) gets pushed to center stage in order to be used as a wedge issue, but even then it doesn't have the longer term effect described by Nihil. Overall Civil Rights protections IN FEDERAL LEGISLATION have been slighted as gay marriage and gays in the military HAVE BEEN CYNICALLY DEPLOYED in the mainstream.

But with net negative greenhouse footprint advocacy, this might get pointed to by some (trying to discredit the movement) but in reality is much MORE likely to further empower those demanding lesser changes as against those wholly resistant.

You can't GET to no war without ADVOCATING no war.
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phantom power Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 10:55 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. Well, OK. Now what?
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cloudythescribbler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 06:00 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Well, if we can get a wing of EVERY major environmental group calling for NET NEGATIVE by 2030 ...
That would be a big step. Then, with some groups advocating that outright, and incorporating it into slogans, demands, etc, it would probably soon become a more general progressive demand.

One strategy from that point (a point we haven't even BEGUN to approach), is to then include statements to that effect in state and local ballot measures, with some policies at the state and local level that address the issue of global warming (eg green energy investment, conservation, etc). Universities and other institutions (the sorts that divested from apartheid) can also be focal points of adoption both of policy statements and policies, including research funding.

By that time, the issue will be in the mainstream, and it will be a matter like with any mainstream issue of winning in the political arena, emphasizing that the notion of this as a partisan issue is a RW creation, not a progressive one.
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OKIsItJustMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free: A Roadmap for U.S. Energy Policy
The goal of this plan is for the US to be carbon neutral by 2050.

http://www.ieer.org/carbonfree/index.html
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