from the Toronto Star, via CommonDreams:
Published on Wednesday, November 14, 2007 by The Toronto Star
Pessimistic Fuel Report Too Brightby Richard Gwyn
The latest report issued by the International Energy Agency on the global balance between supply and demand for energy is by far and away that agency’s most pessimistic.
According to the IEA, “vigorous, immediate and collective policy action by all governments” is needed to prevent both a rise in oil prices, perhaps to $150 a barrel by 2030, and a 50 per cent rise in greenhouse gas emissions by around the same date.
The report’s principal author, IEA principal economist Fatih Birol, calls it “the most pessimistic overview of the world we have ever portrayed.”
To the 625-page report, and to Birol’s summation of it, there is one major flaw. This is that its pessimistic forecast is, almost certainly, far too optimistic.
Consider this fact. In China today, there are about nine “personal vehicles” for every 1,000 eligible drivers. In India, there are 11 amongst the same number.
By contrast, in the United States there are 1,148 personal vehicles for each 1,000 eligible drivers. (The level of car-ownership in other industrial democracies such as Canada is little different).
Where the U.S. is today, China and India are going. And when they get there - as they will, and as will other large developing nations such as Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam - they will unhinge whatever energy supply-demand equation would exist then, even if governments do, improbably, nerve themselves to implement “vigorous, immediate and collective policy action.”
Once car ownership in these countries reaches half of the present American level, their combined daily consumption of oil would slightly exceed the entire world’s current total daily consumption level. ......(more)
The complete piece is at:
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/11/14/5220 /
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