Don't Panic

[Strelnikov_]

Interesting editorial that parallels my thinking regarding peak oil. That is, the real threat to industrial society is the political response.

There is no reason that with sound leadership and sacrifice by the public a vibrant economy with sustainability and quality of life as its hallmarks cannot emerge at the other end of the ‘Long Emergency’. This economy would probably be a fusion of socialist principles on the macro scale and free market on the micro scale (the China model?).

The problem is that this will take, as noted, leadership, sacrifice, and a willingness to change. Qualities that seem to be nearly nonexistent today, just as they have been throughout history. And without competent leadership, all the brilliance of our engineers and scientists will be of little help.

Nothing has yet been written,though. The shape of the future is in our hands.

Hope the worlds 'leaders' have their towels handy.

++++++

After Peak Oil
Gwynne Dyer

Saturday, November 10th 2007

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl/article_opinion?id=161233009


"Don't Panic'' is excellent advice in most times of crisis (an though not if you're an investor, in which case the trick is to panic 48 hours before everybody else does). If the peak oil crisis is upon us, then not panicking is definitely the right response. It can be a quite gentle crisis if it is properly handled, but it will be a nightmare if governments and markets panic.

. . .

In theory, two decades ought to be enough to come up with more efficient engines and other conservation measures for the half of all oil that is used in transport, and to switch to alternative fuels for much of the rest. But there are many who doubt that we will succeed. Once the realisation sinks in that the future is one of steadily diminishing oil supplies and steadily rising oil prices, they argue, there will be a vicious scramble for control of the remaining reserves, accompanied by wars that deplete those reserves even faster. The markets will panic, a deep and permanent global depression will impoverish everyone, and there will not be the will or the resources to build a new economy that is far less dependent on oil.

. . .

If peak oil is here, must we all now go into the dark together? Of course not. The predicted rate of decline in world oil production once we are past the peak is only two percent a year. If demand were still rising by about two per cent a year, that would imply a four percent shortfall in supply next year, an eight percent shortage the year after, 12 per cent the year after that.

However, that presumes that Asian economies continue to grow at the present rate, but they won't go on doing that if the oil price goes through the roof. So let us assume that we have to cope with an accumulating oil shortfall of around three per cent a year. Could modern economies transform their basic transport and energy structures at three per cent per annum? Certainly they can, provided they continue to co-operate internationally and don't panic. Moreover, the technologies they need to wean themselves from their excessive dependence on oil are precisely the ones they need to get their carbon emissions down and ward off the threat of runaway global warming.


++++++


The scorpion wants to cross a river, but does not see any way across.

He sees a frog sitting by the bank of the stream on the other side of the river, and asks the frog for help getting across the stream.

The frog responds "How do I know that if I try to help you, you won’t try to kill me?". "Because," the scorpion replies, "If I try to kill you, then I would die too, for I cannot swim!"

"Alright then...how do I know you won’t just wait till we get to the other side and then kill me?" said the frog. "Because once you've taken me to the other side of this river, I will be so grateful for your help, that it would hardly be fair to reward you with death, now would it?!" replies the scorpion.

So the frog agrees to take the scorpion across the river.

Halfway across the river, the frog suddenly felt a sharp sting in his back. "You fool!" croaked the frog, "Now we will both die! Why did you do that?" The scorpion shrugged, "I could not help myself. It is my nature."

They then both sink into the muddy waters of the river and drown.