Harvest Shortfalls Have Analysts Watching C. Asia For Unrest Over Food Prices, Shortages

[hatrack]

Harvest yields below projected levels combined with rising prices have analysts watching events in Central Asia, wondering if increased food prices might trigger civic protests. Poor weather has combined with the U.S. demand for ethanol bio-fuel to affect global grain prices. Because the United States exports most of the world’s maize, its price has doubled in the past 10 months, while wheat prices have risen about 50%. As Central Asia slowly integrates into the global market, its economies are increasingly less immune to such factors; in June U.S. and European wheat prices reached their highest levels in more than a decade.

Kazakhstan, however, again differs from its neighbors, projecting its autumn harvest to possibly reach a record-setting 20 million tons, according to Minister of Agriculture Akhmedzhan Yessimov. These estimates top the Ministry of Agriculture’s previous forecasts of 17.8 million tons, of which domestic use consumes approximately 10 million tons (AgriMarket.info, September 10). Yessimov noted that the bumper harvest would allow Kazakhstan to export up to nine million tons of grain when harvesting ends later this month (Kazinform, September 10).

Despite such optimistic projections, however, the Kazakh economy has not been immune to the global increase in grain prices. Consequently, the Kazakh parliament has been tasked with producing legislation by October 1 to protect the most vulnerable parts of the population from an increase in bread prices.

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The long-term social implications of the food price increases are ominous, and not only for Central Asia. The United Nations World Food Program estimates that about 850 million people of the world’s estimated six billion inhabitants are already undernourished, a situation that will be exacerbated by the fact that the price of food aid has increased 20% in just a year. On September 13 Italian consumer groups staged a one-day boycott of pasta sales over price increases. Unless the regional governments swiftly intervene, the consequences of rising food prices in Central Asia are likely to be more profound than a one-day boycott. Dosym Satpayev, director of the Risk Appraisal Group, said, "Whether it wants to or not, Kazakhstan may become the detonator for increased social tension in the region" (Nezavisimaya gazeta, September 12). Empires have fallen for less.

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http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372421

[XemaSab]

1. I'd guess Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan would go before Kazakhstan

:shrug: