8/14 11:00 EDT - TS Dean - 1500 East Lesser Antilles, Max Sust 40 MPH 1004 MB Moving W 23 MPH

[hatrack]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W5+gif/143523W_sm.gif

000
WTNT34 KNHC 141433
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

...DEAN FORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1030
MILES...1660 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1490 MILES...2400 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...11.7 N...39.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/141433.shtml

[hatrack]

1. 8/14 17:00 EDT Dean 1390 E Lesser Antilles Max Sust 40 1004 Mb Moving W 21 MPH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W5+gif/204525W_sm.gif

000
WTNT34 KNHC 142045
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

...DEAN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1140
MILES...1830 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1390 MILES...2235 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.6 N...41.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

[happyslug]

2. Other thread on DU on DEAN

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x108420
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2952056

[hatrack]

3. 8.15 05:00 Dean 1170 E. Lesser Antilles Max Sust 50 1000 Mb Moving W 18 MPH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W5+gif/083540W_sm.gif

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150831
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1170
MILES...1880 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...12.2 N...44.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[hatrack]

4. 8/15 11:00 EDT - Dean 1045 E Lesser Antilles Max Sust 60 997 Mb Moving W 20 MPH

000
WTNT34 KNHC 151457 RRA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9...RETRANSMITTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1045
MILES...1685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

DEAN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...46.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[hatrack]

5. 8/15 17:00 AST Dean 910 E Lesser Antilles Max Sust 65 994 Mb Moving WNW 22 MPH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W5+gif/203524W_sm.gif

000
WTNT34 KNHC 152032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910
MILES...1465 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...47.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[happyslug]

6. Don't Forget ERIN. Heading for Texas, just formed off the Texas Coast

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?
Erin is the small Strom off Texas:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407_PROB34_F120+gif/203524.gif

[hatrack]

7. 8/16 11:00 EDT Dean 350 E. Barbados Max Sust 90 979 Mb Moving W. 23 MPH - Cat 2 By Friday

000
WTNT34 KNHC 161443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...DEAN INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN
HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...
565 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N...54.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[Delphinus]

9. I spent a wonderful week in Dominica what

seems a lifetime ago {1995} - it is a beautiful country and culture. I hope they stay safe - hope all in Dean's path stays safe.

[hatrack]

8. 8/16 17:00 AST Dean Now Cat 2 210 ENE Barbados Max Sust 100 979 Mb Moving W 23 MPH

000
WTNT34 KNHC 162031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...HURRICANE DEAN RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 100
MPH WINDS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...
EAST OF MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES
EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040...THE FRENCH BUOY 41101 AND A
NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...56.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

EDIT/END

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/162031.shtml

[hatrack]

10. 8/17 08:00 AST Dean 50 W Martinique Max Sust 100 970 Mb Moving W 23 MPH Cat 4 By Saturday GOM Wed

000
WTNT34 KNHC 171139
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DEAN POUNDING MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA...HEADING FOR THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR 50 MILES...80 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 87 MPH...143 KM/HR...WHILE DOMINICA REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

[hatrack]

11. 8/17 11:00 AST Dean 350 SE San Juan Max Sust 105 964 Mb Moving W. 21 MPH Will Be "Major Hurricane"

000
WTNT34 KNHC 171457
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM LESSER ANTILLES AND STRENGTHENING...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA
TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND
ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
170 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WILL KEEP DEAN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO
5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

EDIT/END