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Before I go on to the message, I would like to ask folks a mundane question: How are help-wanted ads doing in your area? Please reply to this thread.
We all know about the big March job-creation number, and we all know that seasonal factors and temporary positions affected that number greatly. Still, econo-pundits are holding forth as though the jobs problem has finally been solved.
Me, I have been looking at the help-wanted ads in my local paper (the Oregonian, which I do not recommend by the way), and have found that the local job situation is still quite miserable by that indicator. So I had a look at the Conference Board's "Help-Wanted Index" and found this press release for March:
The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Index Edges Up One Point
NEW YORK, March 25 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Advertising Index -- a key barometer of America's job market --increased one point in February. The Index now stands at 40, up from 39 the previous month. The Index was 41 one year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted advertising increased in eight of the nine U.S. regions. The largest increases occurred in the Mountain (13.8%), New England (12.8%) and East South Central (9.6%) regions. WAITING FOR JOBS Says Conference Board Economist Ken Goldstein: "The national labor market has begun to improve, but the small gains only bring us back to year-ago levels. Consumers have grown more concerned about why continued increases in industrial production and GDP have generated only meager job increases. The positive news here is that the incremental improvement in want-ad volume comes at the same time that layoffs, as measured by initial unemployment claims, have been edging lower.
Given the 2004 spike in consumer inflation, and what I see to be a still-flat employment picture, I think we may be headed into a rather awful era of stagflation. Thoughts?
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