of the many prices this nation pays for having an idiot at the helm.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FD08Dj02.ht... snip>
Despite strong pressure from the administration of US President George W Bush on OPEC to delay its planned production cut, the position of Saudi Arabia - to reduce supplies - prevailed. More important than the immediate impact on oil prices, OPEC's action signals the depth to which US foreign relations with Persian Gulf countries have plunged in the year since the US invasion of Iraq. US foreign relations with other key oil-producing countries, including Russia and Venezuela, have also weakened considerably over the past year. Increasing antagonism between the world's largest oil producers and the Bush administration will keep world oil supply lean through at least the end of 2004. With supply diminished, oil demand, particularly in Asia, will remain strong, pushing international oil prices above US$40 per barrel.
Saudi Arabia holds the world's largest petroleum reserves and accounts for more than one-third and one-half of total OPEC oil production and spare production capacity, respectively. Its dominant position in OPEC and importance to world oil supply has made strong relations with Saudi Arabia a priority for the US government over many administrations. In the past, strong relations with Saudi Arabia gave the United States considerable influence over OPEC, helping to ensure that international oil prices remained at levels acceptable to consuming countries. But over the past three years, relations between the Bush administration and Saudi Arabia have deteriorated substantially. The role of Saudi nationals in the terrorist attacks against the US in September 2001 instigated this deterioration. The deterioration in relations advanced with the US invasion of Iraq, which Saudi Arabia, along with many other Gulf countries, opposed. These countries opposed the war in Iraq specifically because they feared it would strongly destabilize the entire region - a fear that has been realized.
In addition to the chaotic conditions accompanying the US occupation of Iraq and growing instability there, terrorist attacks have occurred in Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Turkey. The conflict in the Palestinian Territories has escalated to heights unimaginable two years ago and the Bush administration continues to threaten Syria and Iran. Washington has succeeded in alienating almost every country in the Middle East. Against this background, it's no great leap to infer that many of the region's governments would be happy to see Bush defeated in this year's presidential elections, potentially heralding a change in US foreign policy and the return of stability in the Middle East. While the Gulf countries have no influence over US foreign policy, they do have modest leverage over the US economy via their ability to control oil supply and therefore international oil prices. High oil prices will undermine the US economy, threatening Bush's re-election.
Russia is the world's largest crude-oil producer and its second-largest oil exporter. Like Saudi Arabia, Russia has strong influence over world oil supply and international oil prices. Relations between the United States and Russia, though seemingly strong after the terrorist attacks in the US, have deteriorated sharply over the past year. Russia also strongly opposed the US invasion of Iraq. While Moscow was loath to see the Middle East destabilize, it was even more concerned with the potential of increased instability in Central Asia and in Russia as a result of the war in Iraq. As in the Middle East, an upsurge of terrorism has swept through Central Asia and Russia over the past year. In addition to increasing instability, the government of President Vladimir Putin is also very concerned about US plans for permanent military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and Washington's influence over Georgia, a key transit point in the Caspian oil pipeline.
more...