It looks like we're going into a double dip recession!

[Joanne98]

We need another stimulus package.

[msongs]

1. only a program providing jobs for real people, not Obama and Geitner's corporate welfare friends nt

[abelenkpe]

10. I think that's what the OP meant.

Jobs program. I'm all for jobs programs, infrastructure, green technology, re-powering America.
Let's stop the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and instead provide health care and jobs for people here.

[LeftHandPath]

2. Sorry, but stimulus isnt going to work

What we need is to clear out the bad debts, the bad banks, and the Federal Reserve.

The more we continue to borrow, the more the dollar will be devalued. The dollar has already lost 20% of its value since March. Commodity prices will move against the dollar (think energy costs).

Its really a case of diminishing returns on debt at this point.

Until we retire all this debt, and start living within our means, we are trying to fix a broken system.

[IrateCitizen]

15. +1

:thumbsup:

[AtheistCrusader]

3. Yeah, when the consumer confidence numbers come out for the holy grail that is christmas

the market is going to be shitting out both ends.

[grasswire]

4. this must be why the retailers are desperately trying to unload stuff NOW.

It's frantic out there. Huge discounts and sales going on to push merchandise weeks before Thanksgiving. Sell! Sell! Sell!

[notesdev]

5. Yeah like the last one worked out so well

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

They totally wasted a fucking TRILLION dollars, are you really crazy enough to suggest they should do it again? And good luck finding out where that money really went - it certainly didn't go to any of the 440 phantom congressional districts listed on the government website.

I guess when we simply borrow it from China with no intention to ever pay it back - or at least not in a currency that is actually worth anything - then a trillion here, a trillion there, isn't actually real money.

Please, please tell me that you were sarcastic and it just escaped me.

[roamer65]

6. The cause of the double dip.

Zombie banks that are hoarding capital. They need to be nationalized, re-capitalized and sold off as smaller entities.

[sendero]

7. I don't think I agree.

.... yes they are "hoarding" capital but the truth is that there is no demand for capital. The usual supply side thinking is not going to apply here. "More loans for small business" is a joke when the problem is on the demand side, not the supply side.

I'm sure there are a few small businesses that could make productive use of more capital, but not nearly as many as the supply side folks would have your believe.

[northernlights]

8. and yet 80% of my MLT lab just got letters

Informing us that half way through the med lab tech program, our student loans are being cut off. :wft:

[roamer65]

13. The credit constriction continues unabated.

This constriction is primarily coming from financial institutions who are hoarding capital. They are hoarding it becuase they cannot accurately project upcoming losses. Nationalize, backstop and then break them up.

[clixtox]

9. It will be at least a quadruple dip!

You heard it first here on DU!

Count on it...

Nothing will be the same.

Soon coming... Ugly.

Real ugly!

What do you think?

Optimistic?

Our overlords are sure hoping so, and producing the lies/propaganda to continue the bamboozlement/ignorance indefinitely.

Tell your friends.

Really!

Tell your friends very carefully so that the truth doesn't cause them react violently against the messenger.

[Treager]

11. Same arguments..

I'm one of those fiscal conservatives...

I visit the site on a regular basis... My observation on the economy and your posts: We're all saying the same thing... there hasn't been anything done to put a meaningful amount of people to work. I haven't been able to make a decision on Obama, but the jokers in Congess are going to ruin him.

It is a sad day in America when people who want to work, can't.

[MUAD_DIB]

14. Welcome to DU.

Until the corporations stop exporting jobs there won't be a meaningful amount of Americans returning to work. Until we stop importing cheap, plastic Chinese slavelabor crap Americans won't be returning to work.

[IrateCitizen]

17. Agreed, and welcome to DU!

The jokers in Congress certainly are doing their best to ruin Obama, but he's also been doing a decent job of that himself by kowtowing to Wall Street.

[fasttense]

12. Why do you say that Joanne98?

Do you have some inside info? Do you have some new information that you have not been sharing?

[IrateCitizen]

16. It's not a double dip. It's a downward staircase.

When total global derivatives total somewhere between $500 trillion and over $1 quadrillion (no, those aren't typos) -- and the global GDP is a mere fraction of that, there has to be a serious reckoning.

Add in the shocks of climate change and peak oil, and things will get ugly.

Your post implies that what we face is a temporary problem that can be solved by incurring more debt (and the majority of it going for dubious purposes). Everything I have read and seen tells me that this is more of a permanent state of affairs to which we need to adjust, both individually and collectively. In this case, continuing to throw more debt at the problem is little better than shoveling bundles of Benjamins into a coal furnace.

[wuvuj]

18. 2010.....do not panic...it's safe to get back aboard?

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc091130.htm

In part, the market's increasing propensity toward speculation reflects the increasing lack of fiscal and monetary discipline from our leaders. Policy makers who seek quick fixes and could care less about long-term consequences undoubtedly encourage investors to embrace the same value system. Paul Volcker was the last Fed Chairman to have any sense that discipline and the acceptance of temporary discomfort was good for the nation.

Our current Fed Chairman's voice literally quivers in response to the phrase “bank failure,” even though in the present context, a bank failure implies none of the disorganized outcomes that characterized the Great Depression. It simply means that the bondholders take a loss and the remaining part of the institution survives intact as a “whole bank” entity (and can be sold or re-issued back to public ownership, less the debt to bondholders, as such). The same outcome would have been possible with Lehman had the FDIC been granted authority from Congress to take conservatorship of a non-bank financial entity.

In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes' Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during the coming year. This is not certainty, but the evidence that we've observed in the equity market, labor market, and credit markets to-date is simply much more consistent with the recent advance being a component of a more drawn-out and painful deleveraging cycle. Meanwhile, valuations are clearly unfavorable here, and even under the “typical post-war recovery” scenario, we are observing an increasing number of internal divergences and non-confirmations in market action.

As Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg noted last week, “Even if the recession is over, the historical record shows that downturns induced by asset deflation and credit contraction are different than a garden-variety recession induced by Fed tightening and excessive manufacturing inventories since the former typically induce a secular shift in behavior and attitudes towards debt, asset allocation, savings, discretionary spending and homeownership. The latter fades more quickly.

“This is why people didn't figure out that it was the Great Depression until two years after the worst point in the crisis in the 1930s; and why it took decades, not months, quarters or even years, for the complete transition to the next sustainable economic expansion and bull market.