Davos, Debt & Systemic Failure When West Meets East

[flashl]

The January 2008 gathering in Davos, Switzerland at the World Economic Forum is similar to the 1957 meeting in Palermo, Sicily of American and Sicilian Cosa Nostra crime families who met to discuss mutual problems and opportunities. The notable difference being that those in the Cosa Nostra live outside the law; while those at the World Economic Forum in Davos make them.

Those in Davos, however, share with the Cosa Nostra a common problem-the success of both depends on inherently unstable systems. The Cosa Nostra model is based on violence and greed which is both its strength and weakness. Capitalism, the source of wealth for those in Davos, is based on greed and leveraged debt, a combination as powerful and effective as the system of the Cosa Nostra-and just as unstable.

WHEN SYSTEMS FAIL

Unstable systems can function for years without serious problems. But over time, unstable systems will always break down. We are witness to such a systemic failure today. Global credit markets are slowing and contracting. The capitalist system responsible for economic expansion and wealth is in disarray.

Debt, in capitalist systems, is a wondrous device. That is, until it can't be paid back.

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EXPANSION BEGETS DEMISE

Capitalism's fatal flaw is apparent only in its later stages. As capitalism matures, its inherent systemic instability manifests. The very expansion of capitalism sets in motion its demise. The Achilles heel of capitalism is its perpetual need to expand.

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WHEN WEST MEETS EAST

A year ago, the confidence of those gathered in Davos was based on the belief that if an economic slowdown occurred, it would be offset by (1) the expansion of Asian economies and (2) the ability of global markets to decouple from slowing American demand. Both assumptions have proved themselves wrong.

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WHEN CREDIT MEETS SAVINGS

As capitalism expanded from the west to the east, western bankers hoped their success would be repeated. They were wrong. Asians responded to the new paradigm and their new found wealth by saving, not spending.

Western bankers were dismayed by this unexpected reaction. If Asian economies continued to save instead of spend, it would slow the expanding juggernaut of capitalism; and if capital expansion slows, like bicycles, capitalism doesn't do as well at slow speeds.

CHINA AND GOLD

As western bankers run out of markets to exploit, leaving behind tapped out and overextended borrowers, e.g. consumers, governments, corporations etc., it was hoped Asia would provide the new horizon needed for capital markets to expand.

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At Davos, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the Managing Director of the IMF, urged emerging economies with sound balance sheets to run fiscal deficits in order to offset a slowdown by US consumers.

Asians, in times of fiscal stress, prefer the safety of gold to credit and debt; and, although gold is no longer viewed as a mainstream investment in the west, gold still retains its traditional appeal in the east

Uncommon Views