The era of cheap food is over

[flashl]

Why the era of cheap food is over

Corn, milk, bread, and other farm products hit record high prices in 2006 – and will likely keep rising in 2008.

Food prices worldwide hit record highs in 2006, and all the signs are that they will go on rising this year, and for the foreseeable future. The era of cheap food, the experts say, is over and we are going to have to get used to it. This is easier said than done for millions around the world, as evidenced by protests in Mexico over the cost of corn tortillas, and in Italy last September about the price of (wheat) pasta. Staff writer Peter Ford looks at why.

What is behind the increases in food prices?

...

Two major trends have been pushing prices up faster than they have risen for more than 30 years. One is that increasingly prosperous consumers in India and China are not only eating more food but eating more meat. Animals have to be fed (grains, usually) before they are butchered. The other is that more and more crops – from corn to palm nuts – are being used to make biofuels instead of feeding people.

At the same time, the world is drawing down its stockpiles of cereal and dairy products, which makes markets nervous and prices volatile.

How big a factor is the biofuels boom?

It is significant enough for the FAO to be warning about the dangers of turning too much food into fuel...

Some analysts estimate that as much as 30 percent of the US grain crop will go toward producing ethanol this year, a doubling from 2006. IFPRI forecasts that if the world sticks to current biofuel expansion plans, the price of corn will go up 26 percent by 2020, and the price of oilseeds (such as soybean, sunflower, rapeseed) by 18 percent. If governments double efforts to produce this alternative fuel source, corn prices are expected to go up 72 percent and oilseeds by 44 percent in 12 years' time.

Will market forces correct the situation, as farmers switch to the high-earning crops?

Not as quickly as you might expect, though the European Union, the largest food exporter in the world, has suspended a "set-aside" program that had paid its farmers to leave 10 percent of their land fallow (so as to prevent oversupply).

My guess, Americans will not be concern about shortages until the shelves at their local grocer is empty more than one day.

[TooBigaTent]

1. As the shopper for my family, I have been knocked back by the increase in my

grocery bill over the last year or longer - or rather, by the fewer bags I bring home each week. I am surprised that more people are not making more of this "breadbasket" issue.

I agree that most Americans will not do anything but gripe until things get much worse, e.g. empty shelves.

At least we do not spend any money on meat (being vegies). I last bought hamburger when it was 39 cents a pound.

[flashl]

2. Retail politics will not allow the "breadbasket" issue to enter the dialog

because they do not have the answers.

It is obvious. There were no real answers in Iowa that could address a 70-year woman's question about herself and older friends being forced to return to work to survive.

[stillcool]

3. I wish someone could tell me...

what it is I'm supposed to do...other than gripe. I mean..I just deal....is there something wrong with that?

[flashl]

4. At some point, one must realize that there is a systemic problem

which will utimately have an impact on them.

Such as, thinking that subprime is someone else problem. Yet, homes in foreclosure reduces the value of the entire community.

If, for no other reason than a selfish reason, it is in our collective interest to ensure the entire system do not fail.

[stillcool]

5. I have no delusions...

regarding the condition of my precarious state.. but I have not been living a life that affords them. It seems that Americans such as myself should be doing something about the threats to those who still have some stake in avoiding the future collapse of our society. I am already on the curb, and have experienced a few visits to the bottom...so I do not have far to fall, nor fear it as much as some. I just wonder what it is those that blame me and my ilk for the current state would have me do.

[flashl]

7. My hope ...

is that 'we' who have the time and resources to make noises and cause waves within the political area to move beyond 'feel good politics'.
:rant:

This means, that we stop embracing the abominations that is causing human suffering.

If the robbers on Wall Street manages to constantly erect financial vehicles to enrich themselves in the billions, then, this suggests to me there are means to home and feed every American.

'We' only get innumeracy when it means lifting everyone up.


This will not immediately answer any concerns you may have. I hope that you don't give up. And, I want you to know that there are people out there who are working hard to push real solutions and genuinely feel that if one of us is chained, none of us are free.

[stillcool]

8. I find no argument with that...

and believe that noises and waves are the best...maybe the only..avenue to a societal understanding that we are all in this together, and as long as we continue to blame one another we stay stuck.

[Warpy]

6. It takes OIL to get our food to us

and that is the problem: oil to plant, cultivate, fertilize, harvest, process, store, transport, all the way to keeping the lights on in the store so we can see what we're buying. That's as true in Mexico as it is here.

I don't think we'll see shortages here quite as much as we'll see things getting prohibitively expensive, like lettuce in winter, fruits out of season, and anything processed to death and either frozen or canned.

Fortunately for me, a diet of beans and rice over years and years of poverty have left me loving beans and rice. My mother and grandmother lived on oatmeal during the Depression and my mother wouldn't allow the stuff in the house until her last few years.

[OllieLotte]

9. This would bother me more...

if my wife and I didn't need to shed a few pounds.

[leftofthedial]

10. to the barricades!