I have obviously been doing this badly, that is, trying to get this link in here. Anyway, I am copying in some of the text from this SKED analysis of A.Greedspan's speech...then the link. Do NOT ask me about SKED analysis....go and read the description yourself. the SKED is on the right side of the equal sign...
This is from the SKED link at the site...
That any
approach along these lines would lead to an improvement in economic performance, however, is
highly doubtful. = we are guessing that it would not work any better to be rational than our current guessing method
Our problem is not the complexity of our models but the far greater complexity of a
world economy whose underlying linkages appear to be in a continual state of flux. = we cannot predict billions of things happening/changing and it is causing a problem for our guessing
http://www.halfpasthuman.com/HPHTOC.htm