Kerry camp lowers N.H. expectations

[Freddie Stubbs]

Behind in polls, senator now seeks spot in `top two'
By Patrick Healy, Globe Staff, 12/8/2003

Facing harsh political terrain in New Hampshire, Senator John F. Kerry and his presidential campaign advisers have begun bracing for the possibility of a loss in the state's Jan. 27 primary, which the campaign had previously labeled a "must win" to sustain his presidential bid.

With two recent New Hampshire polls suggesting that Kerry is 30 percentage points behind Democratic rival Howard Dean, Kerry and his advisers are moving to lower expectations of his primary performance there. The campaign issued a memo Saturday night saying for the first time that Kerry is competing for "the top two" spots in the primary, not just for an all-out victory.

"Clearly, Senator Kerry is trailing in New Hampshire, by any reasonable measure, but there are a lot of people who went on to be president who didn't win New Hampshire," campaign spokesman Michael Meehan said yesterday. "We have definite plans to win states after New Hampshire."

In another signal that the campaign was fighting for traction, Kerry has started using unusually fierce language about President Bush -- including a swear word that drew fire from the White House yesterday -- in hopes of winning greater media attention nationwide, which might spark voter interest in states with primaries after New Hampshire.

more: http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2003/12/08/kerry_camp_lowers_nh_expectations/

[helleborient]

1. Bill Clinton is the only Democrat in the last 50 years to lose N.H. and..

Win election as President.

John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson and Jimmy Carter all won the New Hampshire primary prior to being elected President.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. Gary Hart won it in 1984

yet Mondale was still nominated.

[OKNancy]

5. Comparing the past to now is tricky

John Kennedy - 1960
ran against Paul D. Fischer.
no opposition

LBJ - 1964 - In November of 1963 President Kennedy was assassinated. The country was in a state of mourning, thus there were no filings for either president or vice president on the 1964 Democratic ballot the following March. Significantly, several thousand people took the trouble to write in their votes. Lyndon Baines Johnson won with 29,317 write-ins, while Robert Kennedy, John's brother, received 25,094 write-in votes for vice president.

Carter- this is the only one that is somewhat like now except the quality of the opposition in 1976 wasn't like it is now
Udall, Bayh, and Fred Harris.

------
I'd get off this kick about NH being so important. THe primaries are so front loaded now, and with 9 candidates it is just too odd this time to even speculate. IMO

[helleborient]

6. Yes, the past is used to spin both winning and losing in N.H....

I prefer to just focus on how well my candidate is doing today.

[CMT]

2. so if Wes Clark edges him for second in NH

he is conceding that he it would be considered a defeat for him. I still think Kerry can and will come in second.

[helleborient]

3. Probably not...his campaign once said it was a "must-win"

I would expect if it looks like Clark will come in second...expectations will be downgraded again.

[unfrigginreal]

7. Kerry will be lucky to finish 4th.

Clark and Lieberman will battle for the second spot.