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Zogby: Dean takes slight edge in South Carolina

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CMT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-03 01:25 PM
Original message
Zogby: Dean takes slight edge in South Carolina
The South Carolina primary is looking tigth with six candidates within the margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Here are the latest numbers:

Dean: 11% (9% in Sept/ 4% in July)
Lieberman: 9% (8% in Sept and 13% in July)
Clark: 9% (2% in Sept)
Edwards 7% (10% in Sept, 5% in July)
Sharpton 7% (5% in Sept, 8% in July)
Gephardt 7% (4% in Sept, 8% in July)
Kerry 4% (8% in Sept, 5% in July)
Braun 3% (1% in Sept, 3% in July)
Kucinich 0.3%
Someone else: 5%
Not Sure 37%

Says Zogby: "This just underscores for me the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire as gatekeepers in this race. Any suggestion that the first two states are irrelevant this year is nonsense. Once the race takes shape after New Hampshire, the early winners will dominate and the early losers and non-contestants will more likely suffer."

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=764

Incidentally a new Florida poll out today indicates that both Dean and Clark would be our strongest candidates vs. Bush in Florida.

Dean loses to Bush 49-41, while Clark loses 48-40--both keep Bush under 50% and are within striking distance.

http://www.sptimes.com
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tsipple Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-03 01:26 PM
Response to Original message
1. Q: Is There Any State In Which Dean's Not "Leading"?
Based on current polling?
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Jerseycoa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-03 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #1
11. He's not in either one of these
He's tied within the MOE of both SC and FL.

FL: MOE Dems 5.3%

Undecided 31%
Dean 16%
Clark 15%
Lieberman 15%

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On the Road Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-03 01:28 PM
Response to Original message
2. Wow!
I really didn't expect Dean to lead in SC. Maybe he does appeal to a few gun owners with Confederate flags on their pickups.
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MidwestTransplant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-03 01:30 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Other polls have Clark first, Edwards second
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efront Donating Member (77 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-03 02:13 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. You mean poll (singular)
Clark has only led in one poll. All other poll(s) have had Edwards in the lead.
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Fleshdancer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-03 01:31 PM
Response to Original message
4. I didn't see this one coming
Everyone assumed Edwards would be in the lead, but Clark and Lieberman are ahead of him too.

I can't remember, when is the SC primary??
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Chomskyite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-03 01:37 PM
Response to Original message
5. If Dean takes SC this thing is over and over quick
That can only be good for our party, too. Gives him time to raise more money against the Bush behemoth.
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Frances Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-03 01:40 PM
Response to Original message
6. Does anyone else see Dean taking some of the votes
of angry white men who have been voting Republican in the last 20 years?
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Jerseycoa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-03 01:40 PM
Response to Original message
7. MOE 4.5%
Edited on Fri Dec-05-03 02:02 PM by Jerseycoa
There's six of them in there.

And Clark's the one who is moving (up 7%).

"Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman, who led in March and July polling in South Carolina, is tied for second at 9% with retired General Wesley Clark, who appears to have picked up points at the expense of the other candidates since earlier polling."
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-03 02:18 PM
Response to Original message
9. Kerry and Edwards are the only ones who lost ground
I don't think that Kerry will even be in it by then. Edwards will still be, but would probably drop out if he lost SC.
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helleborient Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-05-03 02:26 PM
Response to Original message
10. Kerry has lost half of his support here, too...
No other candidate in the race is sinking so fast...not even Lieberman here.
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