Who will become this year's San Francisco treat?

[burr]

I love the ideals of the Matt Gonzalez campaign...and I believe he has the most pragmatic vision for that city's future.

<http://www.mattgonzalez.com/article.php?list=type&type=6>

However, I am beginning to have doubts Matt will win. First, I believe it was a huge political error to not participate in the debate with Newsome this previous Monday. This gives plenty of ammunition for Newsome in the coming week, and it leaves voters with even more doubts about the Green Party..when all they see is a podium having nobody behind it. In the first debate it was not much of an issue, because the voters were unlikely to notice Matt missing in a debate with several primary candidates. But avoiding a two-person debate is something voters will not miss, especially in a tight race like this!

Voters want to know who they are voting for, and neither Matt or Gavin won majorities. This means that a huge portion of voters will vote for the candidate they feel most comfortable with, and Matt missed this opportunity to present his vision for the city and to ease all doubts about electing a third-party Mayor. Therefore...on the basis that Gavin is running the better campaign, I expect him to win a surprise victory in December. (edited for typos)

http://www.gavinnewsom.com/

What are your views on this, and who do you believe will ultimately win this race?

[Faygo Kid]

1. Rice-A-Roni? Too obvious, I apologize.

Still, pretty good stuff from a box. Great memories of your city. Get the best you can to run it.

[Duder]

2. I agree

I think Matt should get all the exposure that he can. I know that Al Gore will be there campaigning for Newsom. So while the recent trends would favor the Greens, the power still resides with the Democrats. Should be close, but I'll take a wild guess and pick Newsom to win.

[LeftCoast]

3. My unscientific sign survey says ---

Gonzalez

I see about twice the number of Gonzalez signs in the windows around town compared to Newsom signs. Additionally, I think that the Newsom campaign has made several tactical errors recently (Alioto endorsement and Willie's racism comment) which far overshadow missing a radio debate. Finally, I've received a number of Newsom campaign mailers that have gone negative on Gonzalez. I view that as a tactical error as well.

That having been said, this will be the third election in a quick succession so turnout will most likely be low. In a situation like that it becomes difficult to predict who will win no matter what the polls show.

So far this race has defied my earlier predictions. I thought Newsom would do much better than he has so far. I think this is (in part) a reflection of voter disatisfaction with the Democratic Party and (in part) a backlash against Burton and machine politics. I know a number of people who are voting against Newsom strictly because he was annointed from above as Willie's successor.

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. Skipping debates is not always a bad strategy

If certainly worked for Arnold.

[burr]

5. true...

but Arnold was the leading Republican candidate in a crowded field, with alot of name recognition. In this race, Matt is the unknown candidate. And in order to win he must take every opportunity available to make voters familar with his vision for the city, and to demonstrate that a Green can be just as credible of a candidate as the Democratic contender.

[Freddie Stubbs]

6. Gonzalez is far from unknown

He was leading in a poll which was released earlier this week. He is in the lead, and sees no need to give his opponent an opportunity retake the lead.

[burr]

7. Both Gavin and Matt are unknowns to the undecided voters...

and they will determine the outcome of this election. But here is Matt's problem...if these voters remain unfamilar with both candidates what will they fall back on?

Easy...partison affiliation. And almost all of the undecided voters are traditional Democrats, with the Greens already backing Matt. I doubt any Greens show up as undecided voters in the polls, which gives Gavin the advantage in this virtual tie.

[Freddie Stubbs]

8. Party affiliation is not listed on the ballot in SF mayoral elections

[burr]

9. good...

than having a (D) behind the name of a repuke on the ballot, will be one advantage Newsome can't claim.