What do you think the key "swing" states are?

[Racenut20]

The must win for a Democrat to win the White House? (I don't know how to set up one of those polls yet)

[YuNgWuN]

1. Oklahoma

You don't win this state you don't win the general election.

[beyurslf]

5. Oklahoma?

Dole won in 1996. Didn't Clinton get elected?

Bush won in 1992. Didn't Clinton get elected?

Ford won in 1976. Didn't Carter get elected?

We have to go to Johnson in 1964 to find OK voting for the winning Democrat.

(I am from KS, and we never pick the Dem so don't feel too bad.) I actually think we have a chance in OK this year but I wouldn't say it is a "must win."

Battleground states: IA, FL, PA, TN, OH, OK, NM, AZ, WA, ID, CO

[YuNgWuN]

6. I know, I was just kidding

-

[HereSince1628]

2. How do you define swing?

On historic trends in the national election, or on known divisions in published statements of voter party preference?

[xultar]

3. Tennessee & Florida

[jmw25]

7. Two states....

that Edwards has the best chance of winning.

[displacedvermoter]

26. You think he'd win North Carolina?

n/t

[Parche]

4. states

Ohio, New Hampshire, TN,FL,AR

[On the Road]

8. Florida's the Biggest

Industrial and Great Lakes states are the others, primarily PA, MI, and IL.

Others are scattered but would not usually be defined as "key" -- NM, NH, WV.

[AndyTiedye]

9. They Own Florida

Jeb will use every dirty trick in the book to deliver Florida to his brother.
Just like last time.

[goobergunch]

10. Pennsylvania and Michigan are "must wins" for the Dem IMHO

I really don't see how we can win the White House without them.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

11. My List:

Pennsylvania and Michigan are two states we must take!

Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Louisiana, Nevada, and Arkansas are all competitive!

[javadu]

12. Florida and Missouri (n/t)

[Padraig18]

13. My list:

FL, WV, AR, TN, AZ, MO and NV.

[jiacinto]

14. Okay

Here are the key swing states of 2004

WV
NH
MI
PA
OH
KY
TN
AR
FL
MO
NM
CO
AZ
NV
LA

Those are the states that will decide who wins next year.

[mndemocrat_29]

15. All right

First off, we need to win all the states that Gore took.

Otherwise, in order of likelihood, we need to pick up:

1. New Hampshire
2. Arkansas
3. West Virginia
4. Arizona
5. Louisiana
6. Florida

[jiacinto]

17. I would add Nevada to that list

nt

[UrbScotty]

19. I think WV and FL are more winnable than Arkansas.

Arkansas is winnable, especially if Clark is on the ticket; however, Florida, well, you know, and West Virginia was pretty much a fluke last cycle.

[mndemocrat_29]

20. I agree that West Virginia was a fluke

That will be changed in 2000. However, I think that Arkansas is going to go Democratic this election. Mark Pryor was just elected senator and Mike Huckabee nearly lost what was supposed to be a "sure-fire" race.

[kalashnikov]

35. Arizonas pretty strong Republican.

Iam curious why you think the Dems can win here.

[UrbScotty]

38. The Latino vote, for one thing

Another thing, Clinton won Arizona in 1996, while Gore only lost there by 6%.

Arizona barely leans Republican, if anything.

[nomaco-10]

16. Tn. is one and I'm

working my sprawling, suburban ass off to get us in the dem column next November. There is alot of real enthusiasm for Dean and a real grass roots effort here, letters are being written to voters in Iowa and there's tabling at some local event every weekend.

[UrbScotty]

18. My picks

Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Louisiana
Maine
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

18 states worth 209 electoral votes.

I'll have a complete recap on Sunday.

[The Sushi Bandit]

21. The 1st one that Dennis Kucinich wins!

[Lefty48197]

22. FL, MO, WV, and now..... (drumroll)

OHIO!! That's right the Buckeye State. The state that puts Democrats in the WH, IF they win it. With Ohio manufacturing jobs leading the charge off shores, Ohio voters will give a long hard look at our candidate next time. THIS WILL HAVE THE RIGHTIES SHAKING IN THEIR BOOTS! Shrubbie was in Ohio today. He'll be back many many times before the election. Oh, he was there to raise money for his relection campaign, not to do anything about Ohio's 15% reduction in manufacturing jobs in the last 3 years. But if Shrubbie gets enough money and is able to steal another election, then he can serve for four more years, without doing anything about Ohio's 25% reduction in manufacturing jobs. (See the unemployment numbers keep growing when Republicans are in office)

[carpetbagger]

23. PA, IA, OR, AR, AZ, WV, NV, NH.

If I had to pick two states, I'd go with Pennsylvania and Arizona. Arizona will probably be the closest, although if PA goes to Bush, I don't see a winning strategy.

[michaud]

34. I Agree

[kalashnikov]

36. Everybody says we can win Arizona

but Az has always gone Republican. Thats like the Republicans trying to win CA.

[UrbScotty]

37. Actually, we have a good shot.

Clinton won Arizona, and they elected a Democratic governor. Bush only won Arizona 51%-45%.

[dusty64]

24. Looking at the 2000

results and betting that most Green voters will not cast a vote that may enable the rethugs to win again (I know that it a big assumption) things look pretty good for our side. Considering any state to be in play if the candidates are within 4% of each other (rethug vs. Dem + Green vote). The repigs have to defend 10 states worth 108 electoral votes to the Democrats 3 states with 22 votes. Does anyone actually think ANY states are going to flip to the chimp in 2004. One scary scenario I found while playing with the electoral calculator shows a 269 to 269 tie if all states remain the same except Florida gets stolen again and NH and WV go our way, Yikes!

rethug states in play:
Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida (I know they did NOT win this), Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Tennessee, West Virginia.

States the Democrats needs to shore up support in:
Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

25. Gore only won NM by 366 votes. Other close states we need:

Wisconsin- Gore's 5000 vote margin was only .2%
Iowa- where Gore's 4000 plus margin was less than .5%.
Oregon- less than 7000 margin about .5%.

So my reading on this is don't worry about NH and WV coming back into the Democratic column- they will- rather, we should worry about GOP tricks to steal these 4 states from us.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

27. We could lose NM, Wisconsin, Iowa, and/or Oregon

Wake up people! We barely won them last time!

[jiacinto]

28. There was a strong Nader campaign in those states

so don't forget that.

[SahaleArm]

29. Especially Oregon.

It's a strange state.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

33. Hey..we Oregonian think all the other state residents are weird too

Both yes Oregon is a major swing state.

The Pacific Greens have had their teaching convention to get the word out on the streets..this included people form the western part of the country. Several good candidates at the state again.but not a big threat so far.

The Liberitarians have yet too announce anything so far..most likely this spring. Have a couple interesting candidates at the state level..but no big threat at all.

The Republican party is going to throw a solid balanced of candidates against Congressmen Wu and Blumenhaur and Senator Wyden at the federal level. At the state level so far, a wide range of "rascals".

Plus the state of Oregon announced a new political party that won't have a high impact on the vote but it is the Veteran's Party...guess who and what the bulk of members are coming from?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

30. Oregon - yes- Nader got 5.1%

Whereas Iowa only 2.2% and NM and Wisconsin only 3.6% (which interestingly is exactly the same as he polled in New York)
Good point though. Thanks.

[FuriousMNDem]

31. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania

If Bush wins ANY of these states, I think he will win it all.

[no name no slogan]

32. He WON'T win MN

If he does, he's at the same stature as the last Repub to win MN-- Richard Nixon, in 1972.

Take that as you will