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DrFunkenstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:05 AM
Original message
Where Will Graham Supporters Go?
Were his supporters strong anti-war people - will they go to an anti-war candidate?

Were they impressed by his foreign policy credentials - will they follow that path?

Were they enamored of his quiet Southern charm - will they look for someone similar?

Any ideas? Any comments from Graham supporters?

I can't think of anyone that has stepped on Graham's toes except for Dean, who referred to him as a "second-tier" candidate with no chance of winning. I suppose Dean was right. Perhaps Graham supporters will be impressed with Dean's foresight.
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Meshuga Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:09 AM
Response to Original message
1. Dean is already trying to get his support...
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JohnKleeb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:10 AM
Response to Original message
2. I would love them to join our camp lol
but on a serious look, maybe a fellow southerner like Edwards or Clark or something.
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:19 AM
Response to Original message
3. Graham was never 'flavor of the month'
so I would guess most of his supporters did so because they knew him, and respected him, more than a checklist of issue positions. I'm guessing those folks are up for grabs for whoever makes the best case for their support...
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:23 AM
Response to Original message
4. It's hard to say
My inclination is Clark or Edwards. But then Graham is a solid Democrat with years of experience, which doesn't really fit either of them. I don't see them as particularly anti-war so I'm not sure a Dean message would woo them. But I also don't see them as 'Massachusetts liberals', so I'm not sure Kerry could pick them up either. Gephardt?? It'll be interesting to see.
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DJcairo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:31 AM
Response to Original message
5. They'll go to Kerry
a fellow Senator with foreign policy credentials and a strong record of achievment. Graham said tonight that a candidate's vote on IWR should not a nominee make. It seems to me Graham supporters would be eager to support a candidate who could win and would go for on of the big three. However, I expect Graham will endorse Kerry when it gets closer to voting time.
However, sadly, there probably weren't many Graham supporters to begin with so it doesn't much matter now that he's out of the race.
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DrFunkenstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Only If A VP Slot Is Out Of The Question
I can't see him endorsing anybody so long as he is on the short-list of more than one major contender. Since taking him off the short-list would have this effect, I imagine no one would publicly admit it.

So, in short, don't expect a Graham endorsement anytime soon.
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DJcairo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 01:08 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. Perhaps, but I'm not sure Graham is even viable enough to be a VP cand.
He would have had to do better. As it stands now I think Edwards and Clark are the only ones from the current crop of candidates that have a serious shot at being VP. Although, ever since Kerry named Harold Ford JR. as his campaign co-chair I've had this sneeking suspicion that he could be on Kerry's short list, too.
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 10:49 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. him and Edwards
they won't go to Dean because...well, there's no comparison.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #5
11. Graham was one of the earliest
candidates to mock Dean when he said that he was from "The Electable wing of the democratic party". I dont beleive old Bob likes Howie.
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RogueTrooper Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #5
13. Don't flatter yourselves
most likely his supporters will move into the Clark column.
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:55 AM
Response to Reply #13
16. Don't worry, we won't
Dean and his supporters will though, and that's a sure thing.
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jobycom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:49 AM
Response to Original message
7. They'll probably just go back
to being Graham's family. I don't think he had any others.

Though seriously, they will go to Clark. I liked Graham as much as I liked anyone else in the campaign, and thought of supporting him because he went after Bush on 9-11 as someone who had access to the real story. He brought credibility to the attacks on Bush, because he could say "I've seen the evidence Bush is hiding." He brought legitimacy to the criticisms of Bush. That legitimacy now goes to Clark.

I don't think he had much more of a message than that, aside from the basic "I'm a Democrat not a Republican" slant to the economy, social issues, etc. I think that's where his support centered, except of course for his Florida supporters. They won't be united by any one candidate, since their attraction to Graham was regional.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:19 AM
Response to Original message
10. Considering
That polls I have just seen that camoe out of the DNC Fall meeting show that the DNC members themself want Kerry, and beleive that Kerry get the nomination, it will probably be Kerry who selects Graham
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #10
19. Can you access those polls, Nick?
I'd love to see them.
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ModerateMiddle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:57 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. I saw it too, but I forget where
Sorry about that.

They asked two questions, who do you WANT to be the nominee, and who do you think will Be the nominee. Kerry led both. This was, however, before all of the speeches, but I can't imagine Kerry hurt himself much by his own remarks - he was very good at that meeting.
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davidinalameda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
12. I'm going to Clark
and I know that some other Graham supporters on here already have started supporting the General
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JaneQPublic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:52 AM
Response to Original message
14. To the Dunkin Donuts to share a dozen glazed.
Sorry, that was a cheap shot. I really do admire and respect Sen. Graham, but for whatever reason, his campaign just never caught fire.

Since the latests polls show him garnering only about 4 percent, I doubt that any single remaining campaign will see a noticeable boost from an influx of Graham supporters -- certainly not more than the margin of error.
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. Dean launched the cheap shot
so he should be apologizing and in fact I believe he did.
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dolstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
17. What Graham supporters (OUCH)
I'm not sure there are enough Graham primary voters out there to make a big difference, even if they were all to gravitate to one candidate, which seems unlikely.

I think the question most insiders are asking are where his campaign staff and fundraisers will go. Lieberman had expected to raise a lot of money in Florida before Graham got into the race. He'll probably get some of that money, though probably less than had Graham never gotten into the race, since some of those people are going to turn to somebody like Graham or Edwards.

I wouldn't be surprised if Mudcat Saunders, who specialized in NASCAR dads and who left the Edwards campaign to work for Graham, ends up working for Wes Clark.
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blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:44 PM
Response to Original message
18. Graham is a SERIOUS policy guy and is likely to support another
who shares his penchant for detailed policy.
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ModerateMiddle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 12:55 PM
Response to Original message
20. I kind of think Lieberman has a chance to woo them
They were both fairly conservative. Although Graham voted against the Iraq Resolution, he was pretty hawkish. He was too conservative, I think, for his supporters to go to Gephardt.

I would guess they won't go anywhere "en bloc". They'll all make up their own minds and disperse.

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mmonk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 01:18 PM
Response to Reply #20
23. I don't know if
Graham would want his people to go to Lieberman since Lieberman seems to like Bush's foreign policy objectives (like Iraq) as well as the tax cuts though he is a "pure" democrat. ;)
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Speck Tater Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 01:02 PM
Response to Original message
22. My best guess is that
each individual Graham suporter will go where his or her conscious directs them. It's unlikely that they will move as a monolithic block, but will probably be scattered among the remaining candidates.
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davhill Donating Member (854 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 01:46 PM
Response to Original message
24. I think most of us are leaning toward Clark
I personally am intrigued by Dean because of his use of the Internet and anti-war stance. I have a lot of trouble seeing him attracting disaffected independents and Republicans. I have a lot more trouble picturing him as a president having to work with a Republican congress. Graham could have done this well.
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dpbrown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 02:37 PM
Response to Original message
25. All Your Supporter Belong to US
Yoo-hoo...anti-war voters....
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TheDonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 03:00 PM
Response to Original message
26. Clark will collect the most graham votes
Because Graham was taking electability wanting dems, conservative dems, and southern dems. Clark seems to also be attracting the same crowd.

After that Edwards (southern, electable), and Kerry (policy, veteran) might pick up a few. Liberman also may capture some conservatives.
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genius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-03 03:04 PM
Response to Original message
27. My guess is Edwards or Kucinich
I have a feeling that most of them will go to Edwards. They are both Southerers. Edwards is probably a little closer to Graham on most issues. The anti-war people will go to Dennis, who is now the only candidates who voted against the war.
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