Ugh: The California "done deal"

[Bucky]

Check out Polling Report.com. The California race is going to the goon.

Huffington - 2%
Green Camejo - 5%
McClintock - 18%
Bustamante - 25%
Gropinator - 40%

We can't be a 15-point spread in two weeks. And all dat sorts of tings.

:mad: :argh: :nopity: :thumbsdown: :scared: :cry: :hurts: :grr:



:hangover:

[genius]

1. It was a small poll

Davis shoudl pull through.

[Must_B_Free]

2. Margin of error was +/-4

so turn your 15 points into 8.

Arnold didn't suddenly take off, they are just playing the plausible details to steal the election.

[Bucky]

6. I've worked in market research

Must_B_Free writes:
so turn your 15 points into 8

I see how you got your figure (and it would be 7 points that way, not 8). But...

That's not exactly how the margin of error is interpreted in opinion polls. The probability that the Groper's figure is high by four points AND the Cruz is shy by the full 4-point margin is just about nil. I'd have to see the confidence rating here (most polls predict 90-95% confidence, meaning the probability that a duplicate poll would find duplicate response rates).

The 15% points is very significant, even if the poll slants somewhat to the Running Away Man. Because he's keeping it high and out of the other candidates' grasp, only a VERY dramatic turn of events could knock him from his position. I'm sure he's smart enough to just shut up and smile.

Even if Camejo and Huffington throw all their support to Cruz (and Camejo won't), I doubt their free-thinking, anti-status quo supporters are going to just line up and obey. At best this could give Cruz another 3-4%.

Last poll I saw had close to 60% of the voters saying "yes" to the recall. I doubt there's an untapped groundswell of support for the legal technicality that the whole recall process is bogus. This is not good. It's time for California progressives to activate NOW. Expect the state under Governor Scharzenneggar to work hard and subtlely to suppress Democratic Party organization efforts. Nothing illegal, of course, but whatever they think will hamstring us.

[Punkingal]

3. The LA Times is releasing a poll tomorrow.....

that should be more accurate, but since no one has ever polled anything like this before, no one is sure the polls are accurate.

[dfong63]

4. don't believe this poll

it's the same one criticized over and over as being skewed. the result doesn't come from simply tabulating randomly chosen responses. they cooked the data by ASSUMING a huge repub turnout. read about it here . don't believe the polls, don't give up, it ain't over til it's over.

``...
A recent CNN/USA Today poll showed strong support for recalling Davis and a widening lead for Schwarzenegger. However, the poll's results have been hotly contested.

The survey, conducted by Gallup and released Sunday, showed 63 percent of "probable" voters support the recall to 35 percent opposed. The survey also found Schwarzenegger leading with 40 percent, followed by Bustamante at 25 percent, McClintock at 18 percent, Camejo with 5 percent and Huffington with just 2 percent.

But the poll's results are based on the assumption that Republicans will comprise 47 percent of voters on Oct. 7 -- even though GOP registration in California is only 35 percent. ...

Art Torres, chairman of the California Democratic Party, blasted the polls results as "outrageous," saying there's little chance Republicans will make up half of voters on election day.

"It's the most irresponsible thing a pollster has ever done in the height of a campaign," Torres said. "If their intent was to depress Democrats, it may very well do that."
...''

[Brotherjohn]

5. Poll consisted of an unrepresentative sample (49.2% Repub).

The state's only 35% Repub, I think. Admittedly, more repubs might vote, but 50%?

Plus, they can recall Arnie, too, right? All they need is a few signatures.

See http://www.doonesbury.com/strip/dailydose/index.html?uc_full_date=20030928

[Bucky]

7. Won't happen

I don't see a second back-to-back recall gaining steam. The Dems' effort would be held to a higher standard that the GOP's and it would be seen as an even more naked case of political payback than the Gray recall. It would be the perfect thing to help Arnold legitimize his minority vote for office.

[GOPEC]

8. "Plausible Electability"

http://www.toostupidtobepresident.com/shockwave/votingmachines.htm