Dean, Gephardt Tied for Lead in Iowa Poll

[Freddie Stubbs]

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt are tied for the lead in the Democratic presidential race in Iowa, according to a poll of likely caucus voters.

Dean, former governor of Vermont, was at 25 percent and Gephardt, the Missouri congressman, was at 21 percent. The poll was conducted by Research 2000 for KCCI-TV of Des Moines and KIMT-TV of Mason City.

The difference between the two was within the error margin of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts was at 16 percent, and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut was at 12 percent. The rest of the field was in single digits. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina was at 6 percent; retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark, who is considering a presidential run, was at 3 percent; and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and Sen. Bob Graham of Florida were at 1 percent. Carol Moseley Braun and Al Sharpton were at 0 percent.

more: http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IOWA_POLL?SITE=IADES&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

[DrFunkenstein]

1. Yessir, Dean Is Definitely The FRONTRUNNER

No doubt about, expectations are high for the little man from the little state. He is the favorite to win now. I'd hate to be an underdog in this race!

[jos]

2. Bad news for Gephardt and Graham

Gephardt has to win Iowa. Graham is making no headway, while Edwards at least is making some. I expect Graham to drop out before the end of the year to run for the Senate.

Also Kerry should be worried, not only because he's third, but because he's not too far ahead of Lieberman.

[ProfessorPlum]

3. It's only because the media hos are following Rove's marching orders

and promoting Dean. :) (Smile included for the irony impaired)

[CMT]

4. this is good news for Dean but it isn't over yet

lots of time and Dean with these leads in Iowa and NH will now be under alot more scrutiny from the press and the other candidates. He has proven he can overcome challenges in the past and I think he can continue to.

[Nicholas_J]

8. None of Deans records

About the effects of his decisions as governor on small farms and his support of large corporate farms are well known in Iowa to date. But they likely will be when other candidates begin running. And Dean has done some things in Vermont that are absolutely anathema to Iowans. The loss of 36 percent of small family farms while Dean was governor was the largest loss in any state during the period he was governor.
Turning a large area of prime agricultural lands to industrial purposes will not bode well for him either, and the Gephardt campaign is well aware of what happened in Vermont while Dean was Governor.
The 36 percent loss of small family farms while he was governor, plus his dealing with several of the largest corprate agricultural industries will easily cost him a third of his polling lead, if not more.

Dean only SEEMS to be able to overcome challenges, because up until now, he hasnt really had any. Even his own supporters get skittish, go running, call the information lies, when it is posted in as small an arena as DU. Dean is not going to be able to call the Vermont Newspapers that reported on his actions in Vermont "Tools of the G.O.P." while he is dealing with reporters, and lines like "I dont agree with the figures that the Department of Census" put out are valid, will not hold up under major media scrutity.

If the reaction of his supporters is any evidence. Dean will been unable to handle major media scrutiny, and he will do even worse than he did with Tim Russert.

Dean does not handle an environment in which he is not in complete control, and is not the main event very well.

Gepardt has yet to show his teeth, and he is a fierce campaigner.

[ProfessorPlum]

9. calling your lies lies is not being skittish

I still wonder how people survived Howard "Pol Pot" Dean's reign of terror in Vermont. He left the place in a shambles.

[polpilot]

11. Blather blather blah blah blah blah Kerry Kerry pacing blah blah blather

blather blah blather kery great kerry best kerry tall tall tall kite surfing blah blah blah...

Dean rules... others drool....

[Nicholas_J]

5. Gephardt has not done ANY real campaigning in Iowa yet.

HE pretty much owns the midwest, politically, and to be even with Dean, who has been wetting his pants and blowing every vent he has with medi blitz will simply be left in the dust when Gephardt actually begins his campaign formally, and starts spending.

There has been nothing like the talk about raising money in the third quarter, like there was in the second, which makes me suspect that the other candidates have been raising a great deal, far more than Dean suspects. There has been talk that Dean was stating that much of the second quarter money was raised grassroots, but that a great deal of it came from larger corporate donors,more than he wants to admit who cannot repeat the donations, and that the million he recently raised came largely fron his own campaign staff.

[ProfessorPlum]

6. It's only a flesh wound.

.

[Nicholas_J]

10. AS somone here said in another post

Dean only seems to be able to walk on water, because he has not yet been required to swim.

Dean has actually not really been running against ANYONE yet, as none of the other candidates have actually been campaigning much at all.

Dean has yet to even have had to face even anything that would cause a flesh wound. He has been attacking and attacking and attacking, yet has yet to even have recieved a slap on the face with a white glove in challence to a duel.

Dean is being mocked in the minority media, and no other candidates has been, which does not bode well for Dean, becasue in many states, the minorities are the majority of democratic voters.

Remember, the times he ran, Jesse Jackson was the winner in almost all of the polls at the beginning of the year, and the overwhelming winner of the Super Tuesday primaries. Jackson took more than 50 percent of the primary vote in all of the Super Tuesday primaries.

You may be seurpised to see Sharpton do AMAZINGLY well in the primaries in the Super Tuesday races. And any other candidates who has the endorsement of major minority leaders in those regions.

Dean has almost NO support of well known minority leaders.

THe fact that he has been portrayed as trying to mimic Sharpton in the black media is an extreme indictment of Deans lack of credentials among minorities.

[molly]

13. Nick - I think you hit the nail on the head

Dean only seems to be able to walk on water, because he has not yet been required to swim.

Perhaps this is why he started heavy campaigning so early. By now, he has a following - from the posts here - an astonishingly loyal following that would blindly follow him no matter what truths emerge.

When I saw him on MTP, I was still thinking of him as my number 2 and I was embarrassed for him. In retrospect, I can see that he thought the interview did not matter.

[ProfessorPlum]

17. Ya know,

Dean actually wants to win. He wants to win the primaries, and he wants to beat Bush. He is running to win, not to be the most perfect person.

That kind of fire in the belly is something this party needs right now, and why he is attracting Democrats and also people who don't usually vote.

He is campaigning heavily because he is able to. So many candidates focus on NH and IA and then are completely unprepared when Super Tuesday hits. He is playing to win. That in itself is a virtue.

In retrospect the MTP interview turned out rather well for Dean - despite Russert's obvious attempt to play "gotcha" Dean's answers were correct.

If Dean's campaign suddenly fizzles, well then that is that. Who can predict the future? But don't underestimate him.

[poskonig]

23. Kerry has spent more money than Dean.

Yeah, we've been swimming. Perhaps this is why Kerry is getting stomped in NH.

[molly]

25. NO, my dear, Kerry HAS more money than Dean - he has yet

to spend it.

[ryharrin]

27. So, the $6,000,000 he has spent as of last quarter doesn't count?

Dean may of caught up in spending by now, but he has probably raised enough money to more than make up for that.

[ProfessorPlum]

15. You missed the reference

it was to the black knight in Holy Grail.

Dean cuts off all of Gephardt's arms and legs, leaves him laying on the ground calling "it's only a flesh wound".

I wish you would stop putting all of your wishful fantasies into the form of fact. Let me show you what would be a more honest approach:

"I believe that minorities will not support Dean."

To which I would reply: "We shall see, we shall see."

See how that's done?

[MercutioATC]

21. Seems you've underestimated Dean and his supporters before....

He's now:

Raising more money than the other candidates...

Getting more media attention than the other candidates...

Drawing larger crowds than the other candidates...

And the big one......beating Kerry in New Hampshire WAY beyond the MOE!

Your naysaying is yesterday's news. Kerry is a viable candidate...support him. Dean has proven that he isn't going away.

[ISUGRADIA]

29. Jackson in 1988

"Jackson took more than 50 percent of the primary vote in all of the Super Tuesday primaries."

That simply is not true. Jackson won a few Southern states with a plurality because of the split vote (Gore, Dukakis, to a lesser extent Gephardt) and only Mississipi, Virginia and Alabama did he break 40%. The whole primary season that year Jackson broke 50% in only one primary, DC's.

The Reverend may get some vote counts in the 20% range but I doubt he'll come anywhere close to Jackson's showing in 1988 (this even with the demographic changes in the Democratic primary electorate in the last 15 years).

[Freddie Stubbs]

7. Corporations cannot donate to presidential candidates.

[CTLawGuy]

12. anti-Dean hitmen of the world unite....

nt

[Freddie Stubbs]

14. Gepahrdt has spent 29 days in Iowa so far

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/gephardt/gephia.html

If he isn't campaigning, what the heck is he foing there?

[ProfessorPlum]

16. Oh, he's biding his time, waiting to really pull the rug out

from under Dean. Just you wait - the Deanies won't know what hit them when ol' Dirty Dick gets done with him. He'll run crying back to Vermont where he belongs, but will be torn to pieces by the constituents there who will exact revenge for his 11 year spree of right wing crimes. :)

[tjdee]

18. Dean has been going there since he was governor.

Dean has done more work than anyone in Iowa, and that's why it's paying off for him.

Also, he has no job right now but to run for president, which is paying off for him as well.

[Freddie Stubbs]

20. Gephardt doesn't really have a job either

He has missed 85% of his House voted this year.

[polpilot]

24. President Dean, as usual, is on target.

Dean '04

[indigo32]

19. I know I'm repeating myself and others

but these lies are really sickening and don't lend any credibility to your arguement. That whole paragraph about his fundraising is nothing but a load of shit. And all of its verifiable... by law, he has to report, just like the other candidates, who is contributing. I contributed in the second and third quarter and will be contributing more before the third quarter is finished.

[DJcairo]

22. For the record, with the poll being +/- 5%

All candidates except Lieberman are in a statistical dead heat.

[polpilot]

26. It's time for Kerry to support and contribute to the Dean presidency!!!!!!

Dean '04

[killbotfactory]

28. Dean Rules, Gephardt Drools...

Over some delicious pie!

The Great Gephardt Pie Challenge