Will Clark throw the election to Gephardt?

[poskonig]

I'm all for Clark, since his presence destroys Kerry in New Hampshire. Since Dean still has hordes of supporters and is taking down tons of cash, Dean appears the least vulnerable to Clark's candidacy.

But something came to my mind.

Gephardt may be able to pull off wins in South Carolina and Iowa and run away with the nomination if too many votes are siphoned from Dean. Gephardt is very well positioned, a fact that is often overlooked in the Dean-Kerry feuds, and may be able to muscle enough black and union votes to win the nomination.

While the Clark supporters want to believe their guy will run away with it, the scenario above is realistic, is it not?

[tsipple]

1. I'd Say No

Gephardt really needs to win Iowa, right? Right now that's a toss up.

[tjdee]

2. He won't win SC either. n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Edwards needs that one.

And he'll get it, I think.

[tjdee]

4. Once others get their voices heard, Gep is going nowhere.

While I remain slightly bewildered by his continued success, it dawns on me that no one has really revved up their campaign machine except Dean--so as we go into the fall things will start to look as they should for Lieberman or Gephardt, who IMO shouldn't even be running. Their support will go to other candidates, I think. But anyway...

I'm fairly certain that Gep's numbers aren't going to get much better than they are, and his funds aren't as good as he'd like.

And, my minority view is that Edwards benefits from the Kerry/Dean feuds and will get a good number of black folks votes.

What IS it with Gephardt? It has to be name recognition and unions, right?

As to your question...no, don't think Clark will throw it to Gep.
Also, I think Clark will siphon from everyone--and he provides another alternative to the anti-Iraq war Dems.

???

[tedoll78]

5. I'm inclined to believe..

.. that if Dean's supporters maintain their collective enthusiasm (which looks the case thus far.. check-out this weekend's fundraising), a Dean-incited increase in turnout will make him the clear winner in Iowa and New Hampshire. If he really is bringing new folks into the process, this would be very bad news for the Chimp in the general election.

If the general election becomes another affair where Chimp gets 50 million votes and the Democrat gets 50 million votes, a increase of turnout of just 4% (~4 million) going into the Democrat's column makes it very hard for us to lose. If Dean does indeed pull this off in the primaries, this is something very serious to consider.

[FatbackSlim]

9. But...

Dean will also drive some middle-of-the-road swing voters over to Bush who might have voted for a more moderate Democrat.

[w4rma]

12. A) Bush is an extremist. B) Dean *is* a moderate. (n/t)

[KC21304]

6. Hate to burst your bubble, but I think Kerry and Clark

are going to run as a team. How about them apples ?

Let the flaming begin.

[Jalixm]

11. in order to burst anyones bubble

that supposition would have to have some merit in the first place. ive not seen anything that would lead anyone to believe that theyre running together

[KC21304]

13. I was referring to original poster who said that

if Clark got in the race it would destroy Kerry in New Hampshire and he would be glad. I was just having a little fun with him. I have no inside info, but I think it would be a swell idea.

[Cocoa]

7. I think Clark would hurt Gephardt

one of Gep's big distinctions from the pack is geography, and Clark would neutralize that advantage somewhat.

[FRAFG]

8. No difference

I don't think Clark will make much different in the election.

[BrewCrew]

10. not really

not too sure what kind of effect Clark will have. he doesn't really have much of a regional pull because he's never represented a particular state, so I don't think he'll screw things up geogpahically for anyone. seriously, in a poll of arkansas citizens how many of those folks do you think have actually heard of the guy?

his pull will be with those voters who list national security as their mean issue and reasoning for support. so I think Kerry and Lieberman would probably suffer the most.

As for him throwing the primary to Gephardt? I don't think that'll happen but even if it did does that wouldn't be a bad thing.

[Larkspur]

14. If Clark enters the fray, it's because he's setting himself up for VP or

Secretary of Defense. I'd say he is more qualified as Sec. of Defense then VP. I don't see Clark as a potential VP for Dean because Dean needs someone with experience in the Congress. Gephardt could be a potential Dean VP because of his union pull and experience in the House, but Gephardt's treachery over the Iraq War vote would anger some of Dean's supporters and frankly, Gep hasn't been voting in the House recently when he should have been there.

Clark is entering the race way late and hasn't done the necessary footwork to court the various factions of the Democratic base. He's never held elected office and at this late stage that will hurt him. If he had actually started campaigning at the beginning of this year, I'd say Clark could have a chance at winning the nomination.

Clark would help Dean in that he would affirm that Dean was right to oppose the Iraq War. Clark could make Kerry, Edwards, Gephardt, and especially Lieberman look bad for voting for the Iraq War Resolution. I'd say that Lieberman would be the biggest loser. Graham, even those he voted against the Iraq War Resolution, is not going anywhere and has no charisma, so Clark would further push Graham from the public view.

Dean generates his own media now, because he laid the foundation of his current success when he was an * in the polls, and Clark won't detract from Dean for very long. Of all the candidates, Dean hustles the most. Campaigning for the Presidency is the most difficult job, 2nd only to being President of the United States. Dean's hard work and innovative thinking is paying BIG dividends now, and isn't that the American Way?