Outsider candidates excite voters, only to disappoint
By RONALD BROWNSTEIN Los Angeles Times
DEAN Internet fund raising critical asset.
WASHINGTON – Obscurity. Electricity. Momentum. Opportunity. Disappointment.
For more than a quarter century, that has been the life cycle for the sort of insurgent presidential candidacy that former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has fashioned in the race for the 2004 Democratic nomination.
From Democrats Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown and Bill Bradley to Republican John McCain, candidates who have run as outsiders – criticizing their party’s direction – have stunned the political world by generating more excitement and amassing more support than appeared possible when they entered the race, just as Dean has done in the past few weeks.
But since Jimmy Carter rode the post- Watergate demand for reform to the White House in 1976, every subsequent insurgent candidate has failed to win his party’s nomination. Each lost to a candidate who had greater support among the party establishment.
Dean’s ability to raise money quickly off the Internet provides him a critical asset unavailable to earlier outsiders, and he also may benefit because none of his rivals has emerged as the favorite of the Democratic elite.
But even with such advantages, experts say, Dean still faces many of the same challenges that have derailed previous insurgents. Those center on a primary calendar and nomination rules that benefit candidates with the most endorsements and money....
Endorsements could be more important to Dean in another respect. Insurgents who strike a chord early invariably face a counterstrike from more established candidates questioning their ideas, experience and commitment to party ideals – doubts often amplified by the media and party interest groups. In the months ahead, Dean could face much tougher questions not only from his rivals but from the media.
“There is an institutional resistance to the dark horse winning it quickly,” Hart said.
Once the questions mount, experts said, insurgents desperately need prominent party officials to send a cue to voters by vouching for them. But the outsiders – after months denouncing the party leadership – have typically found few officials willing to stand with them.
As Dean continues to gain strength, such attacks are likely awaiting him as well. Which means this impassioned outsider soon may need nothing more urgently than insiders who will rise to his defense.
http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/Main.asp?SectionID=25&SubSectionID=354&ArticleID=84277
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