what worries me: 2010 Census, state legislatures, and district redrawing

[zazen]

I'm sure there are DU'ers who are far more knowledgeable about this than I am.

I know in NC, the General Assembly (is it the State Senate or State House?) gets some capacity to redraw districts every 10 years, after new Census results.

I assume every state will have the power in advance of 2012 US House elections to redraw districts.

So I'm at least as concerned about the misguided public rage against Democratic incumbency and that down-ballot Dems at the State level will be thrown out because the national Dems aren't being more aggressive against the Republican smear-machine.

NC may be in danger (per N&O poll results) of losing Dem control in at least one of the state houses, which may affect district redrawing.

Can someone elucidate me on this? Is redrawing really limited to areas where there's been demonstrable population change, or can the state level legislators gerrymander it for any trumped up reason?

Is this a threat around the nation or just in NC? I haven't seen anything written about it, so thought maybe our good folks here could shed some light on it.

[Aramchek]

1. We're going to do just fine in this Census. Repukes from all over refused to participate

They will not be counted, and that will decrease power, overall.

[Travis_0004]

2. It depends on if you gain a seat or not

If you do not gain a seat, they don't have to do anything. They can if they feel like the population centers have shifted, but that is unlikely. I would say you probably won't see any change.

If you gain a seat (and there is a small possibility), then it has to be redrawn, so who knows what will happen.

[Aramchek]

4. seats can be lost, too

[Iterate]

3. Yes it matters, but not equally in every state.

To some degree I've wondered as well that the national focus on certain races is intended both to suppress turnout and to distract attention.

Obviously it can matter anywhere when it comes to county or state legislative boundaries.

Each state has its own laws, standards, and procedures for congressional boundaries, limited somewhat by the Voting Rights Act and some court rulings. That makes generalizations difficult. Population shifts won't matter in states with only one or two representatives. Some states draw lines to protect incumbents, some don't. Population shifts within a state can also cause problems.

The main issue is with states that might loose a seat or two, like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Massachusetts. Eight or nine states look to gain seats, notably Texas.

So, to answer you question, yes they can make up a reason, but it depends on the state law and the population shift. Anything too outrageous will likely end up in court.