Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Party rules guarantee Democratic nominee "will stagger to the finish line"

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Politics/Campaigns Donate to DU
 
DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-25-08 10:20 AM
Original message
Party rules guarantee Democratic nominee "will stagger to the finish line"
Politico: Obama has a punctuation problem
By JOHN F. HARRIS & DAVID PAUL KUHN | 4/25/08

....As Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen, among others, wrote weeks ago, when Obama finishes the primary season ahead in elected delegates, as he will, it is hard to conceive the circumstances that would cause Democratic superdelegates to deny an African-American politician with overwhelming support from the party’s most loyal constituency. But it is also hard for party leaders or political analysts to avert their gaze from Obama’s poor performance in Pennsylvania. Once again, as in Texas and Ohio, he failed to knock Clinton out of the race when he had the opportunity. Once again, he got beat among blue-collar whites, among older voters, among Catholics, among Hispanics (these categories frequently overlap) — all voting blocs any Democratic nominee urgently needs. Most damaging, these results came despite six weeks of one-on-one campaigning in which he enjoyed an enormous financial advantage....

***

Usually, victory changes the optics surrounding a politician. It changes the prism through which voters and the media view a politician, highlighting strengths, and helping frail, life-sized people gain the stature needed to command a national stage. Usually, election rules themselves are meant to promote this process. Presidential nominees who win even modest popular vote victories usually (though not, needless to say, in 2000 or 2004) win wide Electoral College margins. This year, the Republican’s winner-take-all primary rules have similarly helped transform John McCain’s political stature, in both concrete and intangible ways. It is hard to imagine a politician with more glaring weaknesses with important elements of the GOP coalition. But the momentum created by his early victories in due course brought even skeptical conservatives to his fold.

The Democrats’ proportional rules for awarding delegates, by contrast, are inhibiting this process—guaranteeing that the eventual winner will stagger to the finish line (with the help of superdelegates) rather than stride across it. Indeed, Bill Clinton was correct the other day when he observed that, if Democrats had the same winner-take-all rules as Republicans, Hillary Clinton would be ahead. (By Politico’s count, her margin would be at least 125 delegates, and possibly much more given the stampede effect often seen in nominating contests.)

Of course, both Clinton and Obama knew the Democratic rules when they got started---and Obama, unlike Clinton, has brilliantly devised a strategy to take full advantage of his own assets within those rules. What’s more, in certain states—such as Wisconsin and Virginia—he showed an impressive ability to broaden his appeal beyond upscale whites, blacks of all economic stations, and younger voters. But those states came relatively early in the process, and they increasingly look like aberrations. That is why party leaders see Indiana as a critical last chance for Obama to revive his old aura — to blur, if not erase, both the question mark and the asterisk....

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=82A30E7C-3048-5C12-002DC191A109F61D
Refresh | 0 Recommendations Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
joeybee12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-25-08 10:24 AM
Response to Original message
1. If nothing else, maybe the rules will change for 2008...the winner-take-all
primary rules for the Repukes helped them to come to a decision sooner. Why didn't anyone see this coming? And why didn't anyone see that FL and Michigan would still be an issue? I'm not familiar with how and when these rules were put in place, but it does seem like one more example of Dem leadership not thinking things through.
Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
 
DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-25-08 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. I guess proportional seemed like a good idea, but I agree --
I think the Party should - and probably will - take a good hard look at our nominating process for next time.
Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
 
joeybee12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-25-08 11:51 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. Hopefully...n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
 
damntexdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-25-08 11:16 AM
Response to Original message
3. What a shame: the more-democratic rules of the Democratic Party cause problems.
Well, so do some of it's undemocratic rules -- like having Superdelegates. In fact, without SDs, there would be no problem this year.
Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
 
DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-25-08 11:26 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Agreed. In my response above about a good hard look....
at our nominating process, I was thinking also about the Superdelegates.
Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
 
Schema Thing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-25-08 11:31 AM
Response to Original message
5. But look what it's done for Republicans
sure, they've won some elections, but often with shitty people as candidates.


The antidote is to get good Dems elected, not adopt Republican party machinery tactics.
Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
 
Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-25-08 02:17 PM
Response to Original message
7. Am I the only one who thinks that a tough political battle between the
old guard Democratic Party, and the new, vibrant, energetic citizen activists of the Obama campaign--who represent the dissident MAJORITY of the country on the Iraq War and other issues--is a good thing--even a great thing--for our democracy, for our country, and for our party? We will thus emerge from the primaries with a fully vetted, battle-tested candidate, whether Obama or Clinton, who will face an old, gray, somewhat whacko McBushite hand-picked by the people who brought us the Iraq War and Great Depression II. Contrary to the opinion of almost everybody, I also think that Democratic Party wounds will quickly heal, and virtually all primary campaigners--and voters--will unite behind the Democratic Party nominee. Historically, the Democrats have ALWAYS been the SQUABBLING party. Will Rogers made a famous joke about it. ("I don't belong to an organized political party. I'm a Democrat!"). Only recently--with Bill Clinton, in fact--have the Democrats become like the Republicans, with insider king-makers hand-picking the nominee and forcing everybody into line. I think this is why a lot of folks--including a lot of DUers--are so uncomfortable with this kind of rip-roaring, raucus-caucus, down and dirty, democratic with a small d, party struggle, and keep crying gloom and doom about it. We're not used to it! We've forgotten what a REAL political party is like. We've near forgotten what democracy is like.

Come November, we will have the strength of all this electoral experience, all this monitoring of the election process (desperately in need of human eyes upon it), all this precinct walking, all this debating, all this testing of ideas, all this passionate organizing, all this sheer democratic work as well as fun, and a candidate who is well aware of his or her strengths and weaknesses, and who has been raked over the corporate news monopolies coals time and again--a fully vetted candidate (whereas McCain will have hidden dungeons of corruption yet to be plumbed).

THIS. IS. WHAT. DEMOCRACY. LOOKS. LIKE.

And it is good. It is healthy. It is real. It is, indeed, the rebirth of our democracy. And it is what the American people are hungry for.

I'm not crazy about either Democratic candidate (--although I think Obama's supporters are wonderful!). I think we need, well...FDR. A real tough reformer. That's not possible right now. Campaign money filth, rigged voting machines and the corporate news monopolies (and the global corporate predators who are behind them) have made it impossible. But as a rehearsal for things to come--once we take back our country (starting with the voting machines)--this will do. This is good. We at least have a DEBATE--about the direction of the party, and to some extent about the real issues (the war, "free trade"). We have lots of citizens CARING ABOUT what happens--voting, volunteering. Big growth in citizen involvement. The Republican Party is sick, sick, SICK, because they have not had this debate about their party direction--especially about what the Bushites have done to them (turned them into the Fascist Party), and they failed to engage people in their primaries.

I tend to favor Obama, but even if Obama loses the nomination, and the old guard retains temporary power over the party machinery, everything has changed. Clinton's top-down leadership style will not work any more. She will have to compromise with the left, the grass roots, the new party activists.

I also tend to think that Obama, if nominated, will clean the sidewalk with McCain. He will win by a landslide. Clinton will have a tougher time--because there will be less enthusiasm among the grass roots (anti-war activists and labor unions in particular)--but she will likely win, because the country is sick of death of Bushites, and I think this will become very clear shortly after the conventions.

The current 50/50 thing with McCain--with Obama having a bit of an edge--is partly an artifact of this long nomination struggle, which--I need to say, though it seems so obvious--is Democrat vs. Democrat. The Republicans had no such struggle, because--need I say?--they are not democratic. They have therefore not enlivened, enthused and engaged many citizens, have not chosen their best, or even a good, candidate, and have not gained any experience in this new and much more alive, democratic political atmosphere. Pollsters--using old, rigged voting machine, non-cell phone demographics--are getting a 50/50-ish response because of these skewed demographics, and because people haven't seen Obama vs. McCain, or Clinton vs. McCain in action--so they fall into old patterns. With a 65% to 70% anti-Iraq War majority in the country--a whopping majority--McCain has yet to be tagged for his unabashed warmongering. No one's out there tagging him with it. The corporate news monopolies certainly won't do it. I think this 50/50 thing will change very dramatically after the conventions--especially if Obama is the nominee--and the only remaining question will be:

Will the Bushite electronic voting corporations, that control the "trade secret" code, dare to rig it for McBush and risk a revolution against their voting machines, and long term loss of that power? I don't think they will. I don't think Obama--and certainly not Clinton--is that much of a threat to the war profiteers and financial barracudas who are running things. It is us--we the people--whom they fear. They want to keep that power over US, and not have people throwing Diebold and other election theft machines into 'Boston Harbor' or anything. They'll work with these liberal, corporate-friendly candidates (both of them) to consolidate their gains under Bush, and to limit the damage from an aroused, angry citizenry, preserve their power and strike at us again, maybe in 2012 (after Bushite shit really starts to hit the fan, and they've had time to blame it on Obama or Clinton).
Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
 
SouthAmerica Donating Member (3 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-26-08 05:55 AM
Response to Original message
8. The Democratic Party can win in 2008 - Here is how....
I know that enough damage has been done to both current candidates of the Democratic Party and the damage are irreversible by November 2008.

If the Democratic Party wants to win in November 2008 then the party elders should read the following info on this forum:

Al Gore - Democratic Party candidate in 2008.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=74835&perpage=6&pagenumber=102


Al Gore is the ultimate candidate for the Democratic Party and he can win in November 2008 with a strong mandate.


Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
 
DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-26-08 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. Al Gore is a hero here, SouthAmerica -- welcome to DU!
Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Wed Apr 24th 2024, 09:05 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Politics/Campaigns Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC