Dean gains in poll of N.H.

[sfecap]

Dean gains in poll of N.H.
Leads Kerry by 23 points

By Anne E. Kornblut, Globe Staff, 12/14/2003

Over the past month, Howard Dean has carefully refashioned himself as the ordained Democratic pick for president, using key endorsements to shed his insurgent image and to create an aura of inevitability around his campaign. And in New Hampshire, at least, the approach has worked: Less than two months before the state primary, Dean holds a stronger lead than ever before, and is overwhelmingly viewed as the strongest Democrat against President Bush. Dean is ahead by 23 percentage points, with 42 percent favoring the former Vermont governor and 19 percent supporting his closest rival, Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, said the survey, conducted by KRC Communications Research for The Boston Globe and WBZ-TV. The endorsement from former Vice President Al Gore apparently helped, with 20 percent of those surveyed -- including 15 percent of undecided voters -- saying they are more likely to vote for Dean as a result.

So firmly has Dean established himself that almost 60 percent of Democrats in New Hampshire now expect him to be the party's eventual nominee. Even among Kerry's supporters, more than a third, or 37 percent, see Dean as the inevitable winner of the nomination -- while none of the Dean supporters can envision Kerry in that role.


New Hampshire poll. MoE +/- 5%.

(October results in parenthesis.)

Dean 42 (37) <- Climbing...
Kerry 19 (24) <- Dropping like a rock...(Keep talking about Dean...)
Clark 13 (8) <- Climbing...
Edwards 7 (9)
Lieberman 5 (5)
Gephardt 3 (7) <- Former House Majority Leader...
Other/Undecided 11 (10)


http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/articles/2003/12/14/dean_gains_in_poll_of_nh/

[Kahuna]

1. An unnamed Dem does better against bush in the latest

ARG poll. More Dems crossover to vote for bush if Dean is the candidate than if the candidate is unnamed. Spare me the Dean is leading in NH by this much posts. Bush is going to win NH. What difference does it make?

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/nhp45.html

[dsc]

2. That is true of every single Democrat

and you damn well know it. Shame on you for pretending otherwise. Oh and BTW the difference is well within the MOE. An outstanding twofer of dishonesty.

[beyurslf]

6. Winning NH in Nov isn't the point.

It is one of the most important primaries because it comes first. Bush will more than likely win OK but its primary is important also. They help pick the Dem nominee regardless of whether we take the state in Nov.

And don't be offended by Dean doing well there. He is well established. Clark's plan is to take 2nd or a strong 3rd and then do well in the South on Feb 3.

[douginmarshall]

3. Dean leading?

Dean 43%
someone other than Dean 47%
Undecided 11%

As candidates drop out their support will, I believe, not go to Dean. NH may be too soon as most will still be around, but as they drop out you will see Dean begin to come back to the pack


:kick: Bush out of office, vote Clark.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

4. Yes, Dean leading...

I bet a lot of those polled have Dean as their second choice; it's ridiculous to say that none of the votes would go to Dean if others dropped out. (That's a DU phenomenom, not the real world...)

[beyurslf]

5. You misrepresent the wording of the question

It is "unnamed Democrat" in the first and Dean in the second. They do not poll "someone other than Dean."

And in every "unnamed Dem" poll, the unnamed does better than any of the named candidates.

[helleborient]

7. 8, count them, 8 candidates total 47%...only 1 exceeds 20%...and he is at

43!!

Only 8 points out of a majority...any other candidate needs to more than double their support to even catch up.

Dream on that this is something positive for Clark.

[Jerseycoa]

8. Nah

Nobody thinks Clark will win NH. It's positive he's moving up toward second, though.

[jmaier]

9. Nah

I think Clark will win NH but then again I also figured Gore would carry TN in 2000! :-)