http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aTw.gb2gTd5c&refer=latin_americaApril 20 (Bloomberg) -- An El Nino weather pattern, that threatens to cause drought in Asia and flooding in South America, will probably re-emerge by July, according to a computer model run by the Australian government's weather forecaster.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's so-called POAMA model assigns an 85.4 percent probability of an El Nino occurring within three months. The probability rises to 95.7 percent by August and 100 percent by September, the bureau in Melbourne said today on its Web site.
POAMA is one of 12 international computer models that track prospects for El Nino weather disruptions. Only three others predict an El Nino developing by August, the bureau said. The return of El Nino, which emerges first in Australia and takes months to develop, may worsen droughts that parched coffee trees in Vietnam, sugar-cane fields in India and Thailand and soybean plants in Brazil.
``POAMA is only one model,'' said Grant Beard, a climatologist with the bureau's National Climate Centre in Melbourne. ``It's very strongly in favor of an El Nino. But on the basis of one model, you wouldn't say we are going to have an El Nino. You have to be more conservative than that.''