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Mid-Atlantic - New England -----> Isabel is coming

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radfringe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 06:12 AM
Original message
Mid-Atlantic - New England -----> Isabel is coming
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Tigerlily Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 06:56 AM
Response to Original message
1. Is it still a category 5, radfringe?
:hi:
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trof Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:00 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Hey Tiger
Haven't seen you around.
Still a cat 5.
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Tigerlily Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:05 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Hi trof!
I still read the DU boards, but don't post much. Hope all is well with you! :)
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:00 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. yep...for now...still a 5

Isabel Inches towards the East Coast
9/14/2003 6:53 A.M.
T. Ballisty, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Hurricane Isabel continues churning toward the west-northwest north of Puerto Rico as a category 5 storm.


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Cheswick2.0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:15 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. when it gets over cooler water, won't it downgrade?
I am not looking forward to this. We have had enough rain and wind this summer to last a lifetime. We also had some flooding this past month. I am in Pa now but I lived in florida in 1992. Andrew distroyed my marriage (my ex is a state roofing contractor, long story),now what is Isabel going to ruin?

Isabel could turn anytime and hit anywhere on the coast.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:17 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. Cooler water will slow it comewhat, but that water is probably pretty warm
and if it ducks up the chesapeake, it will still be over water.. Landfall is what deteriorates their strenght quickly..

batten down the hatches you guys :(*
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Ivory_Tower Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:24 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. Here's a graphic of predicted wind speeds
It'll downgrade, but a Cat 4 is still pretty big. And even a Cat 3 isn't exactly a drizzle.



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radfringe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 08:43 AM
Response to Reply #1
16. Hurricanes can gain/lose
windspeed several times before hitting land

Isabel was downgraded to Cat-4 yesterday morning, then back up to Cat-5 later in the day

heard one weather guy say that the winds closest to the "ground" were tracking at 160mph, but the winds higher up were measured at 192mph

In any event, this is a storm to take seriously. Those living in-land should be prepared for flooding, especially in the areas that have had alot of rain this summer. The ground is pretty saturated, river banks could "erode", trees topple from the ground being too mushy/wet to provide a good anchor

let's play this one smart, (no duct tape/plastic sheeting preparations) we've got a few days to prepare

Emergency supplies: flashlights, radio, extra batteries, candles, water, etc.

Put away/tie down or otherwise secure lawn furniture and other items that can become projectiles. Check tree branches and cut down those that may fall on powerlines or smash into windows.

Know where your emergency shelters are, keep a bag packed in case you have to get out fast. DON'T FORGET ABOUT YOUR PETS! Get their travel kennels ready to go!
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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:00 AM
Response to Original message
2. Here's an image from the NHC..takes it right over Wash, DC
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Ivory_Tower Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:10 AM
Response to Reply #2
7. Ruh-roh
Edited on Sun Sep-14-03 07:57 AM by Ivory_Tower
That's predicted to go right through my house....

This could get bad, if it goes staight up the Chesapeake. I'm hoping it keeps turning. In the meantime, I've got try to remember how to prepare for one of these.


On Edit: Just looked at the graphic again and realized that if it stays on that track, the poor Outer Banks of NC are in for a rough time.
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fishnfla Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:43 AM
Response to Reply #7
13. If its a strong car 4 or 5
and youre near the coast, just get out. Board up your windows, bag up all your electronic stuff, gas up the car and take a trip. I got a big place, come on down.
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Ivory_Tower Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:54 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. Luckily (I guess) I'm more inland
Closer to DC than Annapolis. I think I primarily need to worry about high winds, maybe flooding, and possibly some downed trees. Even the flooding is mostly because I have a basement like a sieve. If the power goes out, the sump pumps are useless. (Time to move my instruments upstairs, I guess...)

I was here when Gloria came through in the 80's, but I think that stayed farther east. We mainly got a ton of rain dumped on us.

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regnaD kciN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-15-03 01:46 AM
Response to Reply #14
30. I'm scared about Annapolis (and Baltimore)...
The college (St. John's) I went to is there. School would have just started earlier this month, and there are a lot of dorms there from the 19th and even the 18th century, some of which didn't feel too stable in good weather. If the Isabel follows the predicted track, it'll come right up the Chesapeake, which means it will hit Annapolis and Baltimore (where my daughter and ex-wife live) almost full-force.

:scared:
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Zech Marquis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #2
25. Holy shit, it's aimed right at me here in VA!
Let's see if Pat Robinson can pray Isabel off course , just like the other past hurricanes :eyes:
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midnight armadillo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:08 AM
Response to Original message
6. The last thing I need...
Argh, the baby is due any second now...the last thing I need is a hurricane to hit while my wife's in labor.

One prediction of global warming is more frequent and more powerful hurricanes. Some models predict Hurricane Andrew level damage on an annual basis.
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:22 AM
Response to Original message
10. Looks like it gonna rain like a muhfuh here in Richmond
I think I'll take Friday off.
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ClintonTyree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 07:43 AM
Response to Original message
12. By the time it hits land...............
this hurricane will have downgraded significantly. It will be a category 2, perhaps a 3 at most by landfall. Wind sheer, cooler water, and a low pressure trough now in the mid-west could degrade it even more. I sense a lot of rain for some folks, but no catastrophic event, as was Andrew.
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ringmastery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 09:33 AM
Response to Reply #12
19. I don't know about that.
Look at the National Hurricane Center intensity forecasts.

INITIAL 14/0900Z 23.3N 65.2W 140 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 23.8N 66.8W 140 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 24.5N 68.5W 135 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 25.5N 69.5W 130 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 26.5N 70.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 29.0N 72.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 33.1N 75.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 39.5N 77.0W 100 KT...INLAND

1KT=1.15 MPH

So we're looking at a 125 or so MPH Hurricane hitting the Outer Banks and then it slamming into the DC area at about 115 MPH. It won't weaken that significantly cause it'll be hugging the coast for a while. This is a nightmare.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 08:15 AM
Response to Original message
15. This site has some interesting interactive maps..
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demnan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 08:50 AM
Response to Original message
17. Time to stock up on bottled water, batteries
and stuff the pantry with ready to eat food. In the D.C. area the water supply could be affected if a great rush of water is expected on the Potomac/Chesapeake.

Folks in Occoquan, Old Town Alexandria, Colonial Beach, Northern Neck of VA, hang on and good karma to you.
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Raven Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 09:10 AM
Response to Original message
18. Some advice please!
I'm here in a log cabin on top of a little mountain in southwest NH. I have two dogs and two cats. My house is just outside Boston. Just a minute ago, the fellow who watches over this place (and me!) called and told me that I should plan to get out of here next week if this hurricane keeps on its track. He says that we could get 60-70 mph winds here, trees down, power outages...and so on. I figure that I'm better off here than in Boston and with proper preparations, I could ride the storm out if it comes. I have a cell phone and since Will will be back in Boston, he could watch out for my house there. So I'm inclined to stay put. Bring inside anything that could fly around; fill the car up with gas and park it on the road above me, get water and food and batteries...and scotch! What do you guys think?
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radfringe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 10:21 AM
Response to Reply #18
20. think you can ride it out
you are inland enough, storm should be pretty much shredded by the time it reaches you. Wind gusts could cause damage/outages and trees could block roads

but take precautions anyways, keep an eye on the weather reports

I think the big risk is going to be flooding/flash flooding and mudslides for those of us further inland. Lots of rain this summer - so the ground is pretty saturated

we are nervous here in NE-PA about flooding, back in '72 Hurricane Agnes came though, Susquehanna River flooded and downtown Wilkes-Barre had water up to the 2nd floor of buildings. levies and other flood control measures have been put in since then, but there are still places along the river that regularly flood out during a normal winter snow melt

My partner and I are on top of a mountain above Wilkes-Barre - our worry is losing power and trees and some major run-off because the ground is so saturated already
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Raven Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. I think I will stay here, thanks.
Will and I were in the '72 floods from the Susquehanna. He was a baby and we lived outside of DC next to a little stream that became a raging torrent in less than an hour. The National Guard took us out. It was very scarey.
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MaineDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #21
23. I've been through many storms in New England
Edited on Sun Sep-14-03 11:11 AM by MaineDem
I'm in the mountains in western Maine now and I don't expect Isabel to be a big problem here other than power probably going out. Being on the coast is obviously the scary place to be. I lived down the Cape during a few storms and my husband still gets angry with me (we really laugh) when we remember trying to put another anchor on our boat in the harbor prior to one hurricane.

I think you've got the right idea...have supplies in and be prepared to sit it out. Winds and flooding should be the biggies and I'm not sure flooding will be a problem for you.

Now, all that said, listen to the weather and the "locals". See what they say. But I'm sure you know all that. :)

Good luck. If this storm stays as big as it is and hits land there's going to be some major damage somewhere.

edited cause my fingers work faster than my brain sometimes.
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regnaD kciN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-15-03 01:53 AM
Response to Reply #18
31. By the time any hurricane reaches southwest NH...
...it will have downgraded into a tropical storm at worst. I've only heard of one (back in the mid-50s?) that actually made it to NH with hurricane status intact. Probably, you'll get lots of rain and some high winds, but nothing catastrophic; no worse than some of the blizzards you probably get several of each winter. Based on my time (including a couple of "former hurricanes") in New England, my primary concern would be power outages, which usually take a long time to restore if you're out in rural areas. Now, if you were living along the coastline of Connecticut, I'd be a bit more worried...


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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 11:05 AM
Response to Original message
22. Angle of attack
If you're on the "right" -- or relative east -- side of the storm, you'll get hit much harder, so keep an eye on that storm track. If it hits land as a Cat-3, it will probably take 18-36 hours to spin down to below hurricane strength. In that time, it could easily be halfway to New England.

I live north of Philadelphia in Bucks County, and if it comes in with a path through Chester County or Lancaster (both to the west of Philly), we'll get hit pretty good. With the projected track, anyone in the DelMarVa area east of DC, the Delaware Valley (Philly), most of New Jersey and the Western Suburbs of NYC should be prepared.

Of course, people in the "strike zone" should strongly consider battening down the hatches and maybe visiting friends in another state. Like California.

--bkl
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curse10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 11:21 AM
Response to Original message
24. Is there a real danger here in New England?
What about Boston? Perhaps just mega-rain?

I lived through Hurrican Alicia in 1983

I remember watching the neighbors fence fly across the yard and take out my swingset. (I watched the whole thing through a knothole in the wood boarding up our windows)

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Raven Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #24
26. There may be.
Read Post #22. Being to the east of a storm like this could be bad for Boston. The worst storm that I remember hitting NE was Hurricane Carol in the 1950's (yes, I'm an old broad!). We lost a row of huge pine trees in that storm and were heating with sterno for days. I must say, I think I'll feel safer in NH than in Boston if this one comes at us.
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curse10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 11:49 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. Holy crap!
but maybe school will be cancelled...

:-)
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Raven Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 11:52 AM
Response to Reply #27
28. I bet it will, unless you're at BU
and John Silber never cancels classes.
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curse10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-03 11:53 AM
Response to Reply #28
29. LoL, not BU
Thank goodness, Northeastern.
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SiobhanClancy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-15-03 04:27 AM
Response to Reply #28
32. They actually did cancel them
after the big snow storm last winter...I almost died of shock :)

Barbara(FORMER BU employee)
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-15-03 06:31 AM
Response to Original message
33. Outer Banks will get the bad hit.
and there will be a lot of downed power lines throughout the NE.

FYI as of this moment Isabel's max. sustained winds are 150MPH. Not what I would call very weak.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/15...
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theHandpuppet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-15-03 06:43 AM
Response to Original message
34. Don't forget CASH and GAS
ATMs will not be available and gas stations will be closed if power outages result from this storm. Get some cash a couple of days beforehand and make sure you keep your tanks filled with gas! Also, it might be a good idea to buy a bag of ice and store it in your freezer, so if the power fails you can keep your fridge cool a bit longer.
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