I have a feeling that we are about to capture bin Laden

[underpants]

Just a gut feeling. There are many stories about him and his likeness has again popped back up on network newscasts. Perhaps this is natural in light of the Saddam capture but something tells me this is being engineered for the most publicity.

Of course we should catch him and try him. Now I know some will say that no proof has been given to actually link him to 9/11 (if you could offer something to support this I would appreciate it) but in practical terms he is already forever linked with that horrible day in the minds of most reasonable people around the world.

I'm just saying that you should not be surprised if it happens. If it locks up the election for W I don't give a damn and if you would rather not see him captured for just that reason you need to reassess your priorities.

Just a gut feeling.

[jcgadfly]

1. It wouldn't surprise me

if this bunch already had OBL and are simply holding him until a favorable time presents itself.

[UTUSN]

3. Good. Take Him and Saddam Off the Table Before Campaign n/t

[aquart]

5. There is no favorable time.

OBL's capture will make no difference to the strategy of terrorism, except give it another martyr.

The revelation of that central truth will not benefit George in any way. He is selling terrorism as a finite problem which can be totally cured.

[underpants]

9. Yeah I have also heard much about how alQaeda has changed

No outright command and control anymore at least not in the form of one manor a very few people. The reports say that OBL is out of the mix anyway but his capture would be HUGE in the eyes of the American people and the rest of the world.

[grannylib]

12. He would indeed be a martyr, whether captured or killed. Newsweek

reports that his temporary camps are surrounded with explosives; he will take himself out rather than be humiliated by being dragged out of a hole and inspected on international television.

[forgethell]

17. As I recall

he has sold this as a long term problem that will require years of effort. Years that Democrats will be unwilling to give it, but that Republicans, and G*B can be trusted to pursue relentlessly.

That is going to be his election theme, that the long-term, continuing war on terrorism trumps domestic policy, international relations with allies such as the French, etc.

Is my memory false here? I don't think so.

[bearfartinthewoods]

38. you have to be kidding!!

if bushco whips bennie out next fall we are screwed.

[kath]

23. Madeline Albright said the same thing a few weeks back

and got blasted for it, of course. Then she said she was just joking. But hey, at least she got it out there.

[sallyseven]

2. My gut feeling

No matter what,. Bush is going to lose. He has a lot of time between now and the election to really make a mess. It is going to happen. Have faith.

[0007]

28. Sally I hope your right! My feelings change on a daily basic

[DU9598]

4. Don't think we will get him

Bin Laden knows that his fearful elusiveness is a part of his power. I think if he is about to be captured he will go the way of Hitler. Killing himself and having his body destroyed so that America can live in fear of not knowing if he is really dead or alive. Heck, he may already be dead for all we know.

[underpants]

7. ABC reported a few weeks ago that he is probably in a 40 sq. mile area

in Pakistan. Very rugged territory and the locals would probably fight to the death to protect him as he is a welcomed visitor there. No US military is allowed there. The US obviously has the military muscle to control the area (it would take a lot) but until they can get in there......

Now the recent attacks on Musharaf send up red flags as a new leader may allow us in. It smells of CIA to me.

[radwriter0555]

25. Bin laden has been dead for more than 2 years. It's not possible that

he survived his kidney disease in the living conditions he was subject to. Between infection, lack of dialysis, or contaminated conditions, it's just not possible to stay alive this long in the poor condition he was in.

[forgethell]

33. Sure it is,

Allah will preserve him to maintain his jihad against the Great Satan! /sarcasm off

[Champion Jack]

6. Whatta you bet he'll have freezer burns?

[underpants]

11. What's the over/under on the number of times he will "fall down"?

38? or so?

[ewagner]

8. He MUST be captured.

There was one video of OBL released some time ago where he was bragging about the 9/11 operation to a Sheik/financial backer so I think his complicity in the 9/11 attacks is beyond "probable cause".

If he is captured, then there must be a trial. Our system of justice is based upon granting "due process" and we can't let our hatred of this man make us abandon our values.

Having said all this, I must point out that our intelligence community has to be very smart about OBL's capture. They have to do it in a way that will compromise and undermine the network he has established, which, I think has many redundancies built in to assure that it will operate even if he is captured or killed.

OBL must be brought to justice. I hate the fact that doing so could prove to be a benefit to the Bush* administration, but there is a larger cause to be served here.

[underpants]

10. Thank you

Very well put.

[trumad]

13. They already found him...

[fob]

30. Hey e-wag, do you speak whatever language the obl video

you referenced was recorded in? I don't mean that in a snide way, I would really like to know what was said by someone that speaks the language and NOT rely on the bush* admin translation of said video. I recall when the earlier videos came out, there was an initial translation that was in conflict with a subsequent translation, which was then further challenged by an aljezeera translation.

Point being that bush* = dishonest is very hard to overcome.

[ewagner]

44. I concede your point

but I can't believe the entire world is in on a conspiracy too.

My premise is that at least most of the translation was true or else there would have been a dissenting opinion posted in the foreign press. I don't recall seeing it at the time.

[Timefortruth]

14. I still think he is dead.

The last video tape of him showed that he was in failing health, he was paralyzed on one side of his body and his hair had gone white. There was a kidney specialist on some show that said that the way OBL appeared is how end stage kidney patients look. That doctor thought OBL's life expectancy was short, six months at most.

[underpants]

15. Good

but the recent tapes mention Saddam being captured so he seems to still be around.

[arcane1]

26. was that the fat, or thin, Osama?

I trust tapes from this admin about as much as I trust anything else they tell me.

[Timefortruth]

31. I'm sure tapes are being released, even by AQ

but I doubt they are of ABL. ABL loved the camera until that last video tape, then he stopped appearing in front of one. This shyness is out of character, to say the least.

I hope he is dead also, but sadly I don't think it will have much effect on AQ's operations. It used to be widely reported that OBL wasn't the brains behind the operation, so his death would only be symbolic.

[thinkingwoman]

35. I remember that expert

and he seemed credible, BUT...

OBL has 3 zillion close relatives who easily could have donated a kidney, AND...

I don't buy for a second that he's been in a whole in the mountains all this time. I think Pakistan is a more likely place and kidney transplants are fairly routine (as far as organ transplants go).

[bearfartinthewoods]

39. so is plastic surgery

which may be why we haven't seen the "new and improved" bennie in a while.

[demnan]

16. I don't think they will ever capture Bin Laden

Bush's bunch doesn't want to. They can always use Bin Laden for their political advantage. About half way down on Bartcop today there is an interesting story about William Safire predicting "major terror attack" on eve of 2004 election.

http://www.bartcop.com

Bartcop speculates:

<snip>

"Why would Safire raise this issue? He's saying they'll either do the attack or allow it.

Even if bin Laden hates all Americans, he must hate Bush more than, say Dean. bin Laden knows an October surprise would help Bush, so why would he help him?

Or is Safire suggesting bin Laden is still on Bush's team?

That's not as crazy as it sounds.
Thanks to Osama, Bush is the most powerful person in all of history.
Thanks to Bush, Osama is the most famous and respected Arab warrior in history.
Thanks to Osama, Bush's family will make a trillion dollars.
Thanks to Bush, Osama gets the Jihad that could unite all Arab countries - under him

The B.F.E.E. certainly knows how to structure a deal. "

<end snip>

[markus]

18. They have to report on the crappy holiday season sales eventually

so look for bin Laden to pop up as required to make sure that nasty little tidbit about our booming economy is lost on everyone except hardcore CNBC watchers.

In fact, it would be interesting to get a line chart of all the big financial announcements coming out of the government, etc. for the next six months, and track the war on terror events that occur together with the positive and negative results.

[Capn Sunshine]

41. There was grand celebration today

because the RATE OF LAYOFF ANNOUNCEMENTS declined 16%

That's right folks! We can celebrate now! They are only laying people off at a pace 84% as fast as last years! Whoopee!

[WilliamPitt]

19. Too early

I got an email from a man who says his brother, a soldier in Afghanistan, tells him that American forces know where OBL is and have had him bottled up for a while, and are waiting for just the right moment to bag him. Take that for whatever its worth, but this capture will suit them better six months from now. If you think they wouldn't use this for political means, well, you need to bone up on your reading (not 'you, underpands,' but the royal 'you').

[Dems Will Win]

20. Given the very short bounce of the Saddam capture

OBL will be taken from his box canyon where Newsweek found him on October 25th or so. Just like Nixon made "peace" with the North Vietnamese just before '72. Only this time it won't help the GOP.

(if Dean is magnanimous and doesn't pull a McGovern and give the raspberry to the DLC folks)

[underpants]

22. Oh the political means are not an issue

That is a given.

AS far as knowing where he is See my ABC reported....post above.

The attacks on Musharaf are what really got my mind rolling on this, I think they (W&Co.) are going to use either that threat or protection to influence him into let us in there.

[blondeatlast]

54. The attacks on Musharif are rather alarming--2 days befor 9/11

happened, the Northern Alliance leader was assissinated. My husband (Asian Indian) predicted then that bin Laden was planning something enormous. He was, of course, right.

[ewagner]

45. Try this mind bender....

...assume OBL has really bad kidney problems (I think that's been proven)

...assume that the US has him "bottled up in the mountains

...assume that they want to keep him for an "October Surprise"


BUT

if he dies, he's no use to anybody

Would somebody actually be trying to keep him alive?

I'm only half-serious, of course, but that's an amusing scenario.

[blondeatlast]

55. I don't think they could with his kidney problems.

But you are right--he's useless if he dies, except that we will never know if he is or not.

[SheilaT]

21. The capture of bin Laden

will no doubt be the October Surprise of this election. Think about it. The most evil man in the world (now that Saddam Hussein is in custody) captured and paraded before the cameras only a couple of days before we all go to the polls? How many millions of Americans would NOT ask themselves why now? How many millions would fall for the incredible propaganda machine that is the Bush administration and the corporate media they have in their thrall?

And it would look better than any other form of stealing the election.

[IronLionZion]

24. maybe in October, not now

there's going to be some kind of October surprise to help Bush. I hope America opens its eyes by then and ignores that kind of bullshit.

[bobthedrummer]

27. There is more hysteria now than during McCarthy and HUAC era

just wait until the show trials of Saddam and Osama begin.
:puke::puke::puke:

during an election year...

[0007]

29. Underpants you are so intuitive, LOL!

Cuz I've been gettin' lots of chatter, chatter in Wahhabi, chatter in Sunni. It looks like October 1, 04 the big transfer will be taking place. Just before Pakistan President Musharraf disappears.

[underpants]

34. Thank you ...now my ideas on Oak Island

Great article in Rolling Stone, thoroughly fascinating.

[knight_of_the_star]

32. It MIGHT happen

We can always run a campaign showing how politically convienient it is.

[Snow]

36. Aaaagghhh! Underpants! That's terrible logic! Go read the Popper thread...

You said " Now I know some will say that no proof has been given to actually link him to 9/11 (if you could offer something to support this I would appreciate it)"

You want me to offer proof that there's been no proof? Just so we're clear on this?

[underpants]

37. Popper thread?

:shrug:

[Snow]

48. Yeah - patron saint of testable questions....

now playing at DU
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=980850

[blondeatlast]

56. Underpants isn't even in that thread . . .

:shrug:

[Snow]

57. That's right - I referred him there for educational purposes.....

[Capn Sunshine]

40. NOT NOW!

Too early.American people have a short memory. Things despite the corporate media rhetoric to the contrary are NOT improving. I noted elsewhere that M3 is SHRINKING as of q4 2003 and this generally preceeds an economic downturn. The opposite of thisis to print money, really fast , lots of it, like they did before and the result is inflation on a major scale, which would literally kill of the dollar. But I digress. The point is despite the reports, thinsg are preyy screwe up out there and the Iraq quagmire is not going to get any easier or prettier, and ultimatelythe media willhave to broadcast the stories of the tens of thousands of wounded thousands of families dislocated by the war , businesses owned by reserviosts shuttered,..you get the idea.

So, no, I think closer to August for maximum flag waving effect at the convention a month later.

[underpants]

43. Uh they still remember 9/11don't they?

And that has been almost 2 1/2 years ago. Even Jacko MIGHT fade to the background if OBL is caught/killed and you will be reminded of it constantly.

[southpaw]

42. Wouldn't it be cool...

If some trigger-happy Pakistani hoping for a reward (or just a shit-load of face time on international television) were to kill OBL and turn him over to the Pakistani government tomorrow.

It would be a world-wide headline before Bushco could stop it. Goodbye October surprise! Bush couldn't capture Osama, but a Pakistani farmer with a varmint rifle took him out!

[OneTwentyoNine]

46. Dead cat bounce right now,more like 8 months from now....eom

[lovedems]

47. When the balloons fall from the ceiling at the Rethuglican convention

Bin Ladens body will drop with them! (Just kidding of course) I think they will produce BL when the Plame investigation starts to wield some significant information. That story has the makings of a political liability so they can just do something spectacular to over shadow the news of the leaker.

[AngryAmish]

49. Scenario I heard on TV last night

Do not remember what channel (cable news) but...

Some "expert" was saying that Gen Mushariff in Pakistan has cut a deal with the Islamists to give up his army post and rule as a civilian president. Then Mushariff will give them an easier time in Parliament. In the end of March is the traditional time for promotions and firings within the Pakistani govt.

So Gen. Mushariff is planning a big time purge of the army and intelligence services of all the Islamists (ie the people who invented the Taliban). Then and only then will he give up his army post.

So, the Islamists are trying to kill him before the purge hits. The Islamists in the Army have been giving away his movements to terrorists so they can kill him before they are purged. That is why there have been the 2 major attempts on his life.

If the Islamists are purged than it may be easier to grab OBL in tribal areas of Pakistan. If he is grabbed it will have to be after March.

Is this true? I don't know. I live in Chicago and I have no inside info. But the guy sounded convinced.

[Southsideirish]

50. 'bet we have been expediting his dialysis treatments! Keep him well!

Gotta keep this guy around until we REALLY need him. It will all depend on "junior mint's" polling numbers this summer and fall.

[Catherine Vincent]

51. He'll definitely be captured when the CIA Leak thingy heats up.

I guarantee it!

[Astarho]

53. Why not

they already sold out one CIA agent...

[loudnclear]

52. I think Bin Laden is already dead...but if not, he will not be taken alive

He will kill himself first...unlike Saddam.