Newsweek Poll: EVERY Dem is capable of beating Bush...

[TruthIsAll]

Registered voters want Bush out by 50%-45%, but Bush is ahead of each Dem by about 50%-41%. What gives? Simple. Each registered voter polled has a preference which is factored into the result, making it appear the Dems are all behind - when they are really ahead.

For example, assume the question is posed to a Dean supporter:
Who would you vote for, Bush or Kerry?

Some Dems/Repubs/independents/undecided leaning to Dean would subconsciously express this bias by saying they support Bush over Kerry. The bias exists for all Dems. That's why the preliminary individual polls are misleading; and they will remain so until the actual nominee is determined. As soon as that happens and the Dems close ranks, the nominee will pull ahead of Bush in the polls.

Bank on it. The Dems will win big, by at least 54%/46%...
...AS LONG AS THEY DON'T LET BUSH STEAL IT AGAIN.

Where will he get 5% more than Gore did? How about Greens, military, unemployed, Muslims, Hispanics, Unions, seniors, 10% of Repubs/Conservatives, 65-70% of Indies.

And a massive turnout by an energized base of Bush haters.
.....................................................................

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Dec. 11-12, 2003. N=822 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

"Suppose the next general election for president were being held TODAY and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and , the Democrat -- who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or , the Democrat?" Names rotated


Bush Dean Other/ Undecided
49 42 9

Bush Lieberman
51 42 7

Bush Clark
49 43 8

Bush Gephardt
51 40 9

Bush Kerry
51 41 8

Bush Edwards
51 40 9

"In general, would you like to see George W. Bush reelected to another term as president, or not?"

Yes No Don'tKnow
45 50 5

[Sliverofhope]

1. You're right.

They're almost all virtual ties, if you add the undecideds and fiddle with the margin of error. Interesting. While I think it's probably a bit more secure for Bush now than it will be later, it goes give you something to think about.

[On the Road]

2. That's a Very Provocative Thought, TruthisAll

That's one reason statistics cannot be taken at face value.

One thing that will happen is that people on the margin will swing to the incumbent. The other is that Democrats voting for Bush in the poll (whoever they are) will come back to the party.

[tedoll78]

3. I'll also note on behalf of Dean..

Gore was behind Bush in most of 1999 by 10 to 15%, he ran a lukewarm-at-best campaign, and he still beat the man by half a million votes. If Dean does indeed energize 3 to 4 million new voters to the polls, he wins easily.

I was having doubts about his electability, but no more.

[Dudley_DUright]

4. Good points TIA

Most professional political consultants know that when an incumbent's reelect numbers are under 50%, that politician is in serious trouble.

[Woodstock]

5. there is also a big "unknown" factor still about the Dem candidate

If someone asks Average Joe,

Would you vote for George Bush or Gsogtr Wehiodlg

he might just say George Bush because he doesn't know who the other guy is.

To a lot of people (it used to be 60% of DEMS couldn't even name a single candidate, now it's likely less but how much? Michael Jackson gets more TV coverage than the Dem candidates)

Dean, Clark, etc. = Gsogtr Wehiodlg.

[never cry wolf]

6. Nice post TIA

You are correct, and shrubbies numbers will keep dropping hopefully.

[mrgorth]

7. Good post

I see an all out brawl coming. Blood in the streets. My only fear is that it will be so dirty that the GOP will stoop to even dirtier tricks and the media will nudge things back to shrub.