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So, is the Kerry Campaign Finished?

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Stevendsmith Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 05:52 PM
Original message
So, is the Kerry Campaign Finished?
Edited on Tue Dec-09-03 05:53 PM by Stevendsmith
Hell, barring a major shakeup, isn't everyone but Dean and Clark finished?
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 05:56 PM
Response to Original message
1. If Kerry Loses New Hamsphire He's Toast...
And I respect Kerry.... I have no animus towards him....

Show me a scenario where Kerry loses in his own backyard and goes on especially when the race goes south with two southerners running...
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jpgray Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. I concur, and I like Kerry as well. (nt)
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:02 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Same Thing With Gep In Iowa....
The question is who will emerge as the primary post New Hampsire challenger to Dean....

Simple math says it's Clark or Edwards....

I put Dean as a 1 to 4 favorite to win Iowa and New Hampsire and a 1 to 2 favorite to win the nomination...
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jpgray Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #5
14. If Dean wins Iowa and NH, the momentum will be hard to stop
And we could do a lot worse, I might say.
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killbotfactory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #1
9. Kerry's spokesmen probably should have said this, then:
"When you look at the size of New Hampshire, it takes a lot of temerity to even call it a state," said Meehan. "It's really a pathetic little fringe colony. No wonder Howard Dean is ahead by 30 points in the polls. They don't even have an NFL franchise -- sad."
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:10 PM
Response to Reply #9
20. We All Know Know That Hampshire And Iowa Are Small Homogeneous States
Edited on Tue Dec-09-03 06:14 PM by DemocratSinceBirth
but the process is f--ked...

I'm just a handicapper....
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sallyseven Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #1
12. Don't rule him out.
He beat gov. weld even after people said he was going to lose. I still will support him as long as he is running. I like him, respect him. His stands on my issues are great. Environment, the war, veterans, taxes, you name it. He has honesty and forthrightness going for him. I trust him. If he wins the presidency the god forsaken moron on Beacon Hill will appoint himself senator and that would upset me greatly. I am still willing to stick with Kerry. Take an honest look at what he stands for. He voted to allow Bush to call for more inspections and if Saddam said no the he said he could use force. He didn't vote for war read what really was voted for. He didn't know bush "would f..k it up so badly" and neither did you ou there in democrat land.
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jpgray Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #12
16. I will support him as well until he wholly gives up the race
He is still an excellent candidate, and certainly worthy of this Democrat's support.
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WiseMen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:23 PM
Response to Reply #1
25. Yes, If the progressive movement than he's fought for lets it happen

Kerry is head and sholder above all the other candidates in terms
of his career of service and conflict for all the great cause:
from anti-war, civil rights, the environment.

We just need to do a direct comparison on each issue between
Kerry and Dean to see this.
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sleipnir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #1
33. Show me a scenerio that acutally has Kerry winning NH...
He won't, he can't, and I strongly believe he's done for. Multiple polls have Dean winning by a landslide or far enough ahead that even if, say 75% of the undecideds went to Kerry, Dean would STILL WIN. Kerry's only hope is a major bombshell that obliterates the Dean Machine...and that's not going to be happening.
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Hep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 05:57 PM
Response to Original message
2. Nobody is finished except Graham
n/t
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HFishbine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:03 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. Exactly
Nobody should be counting their chickens, least of all Dean supporters.
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Monte Carlo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:01 PM
Response to Original message
4. I've heard that Kerry's campaign is prepared to place 2nd in N.H....
... and continue to run and gain in the other states. If everyone thinks he's finished, any future surges will be a big boost to his chances.
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robsul82 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:04 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Clark is sneaking up on Kerry in N.H., isn't he?
A 2nd place finish wouldn't be good ANYWAY, but it looks like he might just get upset by Clark as well.

Later.

RJS
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Monte Carlo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:09 PM
Response to Reply #8
17. It ain't over 'til it's over...
And careful with your tone.
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Stevendsmith Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:22 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. Careful with my Tone?
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Monte Carlo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:23 PM
Response to Reply #23
26. Not you, the other guy. n/t
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Stevendsmith Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:41 PM
Response to Reply #26
29. Okay, sorry about that. n/t
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robsul82 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #17
27. He was speaking to me, Steve...
And waaaaah waaaaah. How do you like that tone...sir? Applesauce, hehe.

Later.

RJS
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Monte Carlo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:44 PM
Response to Reply #27
31. You're not doing yourself any good...
... or Dean any good on your pedestal, guy. It's baggage.
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robsul82 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #31
36. Again.
:nopity:

Careful with YOUR tone.

Later.

RJS
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #4
11. Whistling Past The Graveyard...
He loses his own backyard and a state he was expected to win...

Where does he make his stand?

South Carolina against Edwards and Clark ....I don't see it....


Today's December 9,2003 .... Kerry has as much chance of winning the nomination as the Cincinatti Bengals have of winning the Super Bowl..... The Cincinatti Bengals still have a theoretical chance because they can get a wild card which is sort of a ticket to the Super Bowl... Kerry is still "alive" and has a theoretical chance cuz nobody has voted but so do all eight others...

We're talking probablity versus possibility... Anything can happen but I'm predicting what wlll most likely happen...
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pscot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:02 PM
Response to Original message
6. I've been a Kerry guy
since the beginning, and I still think he's the best qualified candidate we have, but it's not looking good. If he takes a real drubbing in New Hampshire it's hard to see how he can go on.
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eissa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:06 PM
Response to Original message
10. No it's not
Clinton lost both Iowa and NH and went on to win the nomination. It's not over till it's over. Although I am happy my guy is leading so far ;-)
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:09 PM
Response to Reply #10
18. Clinton Lost Iowa To Tom Harkin-The Favorite Son....
and New Hampshire to a New Englader, Paul Tsongas....

That's how he was able to spin New Hampshire into a win...

New Hampshire is Kerry's backyard....
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cindyw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:21 PM
Response to Reply #18
22. New Hampshire is also Dean's backyard. So it is not as bad as if he lost
it to a Southerner.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:40 PM
Response to Reply #22
28. You Are 100% Right
If Dean loses NH he's toast just as is Kerry if he loses NH....


And Gep's toast if he loses IA....
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maddezmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:07 PM
Response to Original message
13. not a vote cast yet
They all are still in.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:08 PM
Response to Original message
15. The vote will start to move
Whether it shifts to Kerry, Clark or Gephardt remains to be seen. Kerry is painted off as a particular type of liberal elitist here. But when you dig into the polls and see who supports him, it's just not true. Gephardt's people could very easily go to Kerry, I don't think Gephardt is going to do well after Iowa. Kerry's people could go anywhere really. I think it'll be between Clark and Kerry next and neither one has that wrapped up by any means. When Kerry gets on the ground and starts talking to people, they see he isn't what he's been portrayed and the votes start to change. There's alot more polls out there than just the negative ones that get posted around here. And no, I'm not going to go dig them up and dissect them. Take it or leave it, I really don't care. So we'll see what happens. It's going to be a wild few weeks.
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robsul82 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:10 PM
Response to Original message
19. I sure hope that during the national election...
when (hopefully) Dean's leading Bush by 10 points a couple months before election day, none of you are celebrating because no votes would be cast then either.

Later.

RJS
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eileen_d Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. Enjoy that moral superiority while you can...
Edited on Tue Dec-09-03 06:15 PM by eileen_d
you'll need every one of us if Dean gets the nomination. The majority of us are willing to support Dean at that time. But folks like you who insinuate that people who support other candidates would rather vote for Bush make the prospect of supporting Dean more of a nose-holding process.

Can't you find a way of celebrating Gore's endorsement without dancing on the other candidates' graves?
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cindyw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:22 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. Thank you
:yourock:
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jmaier Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:44 PM
Response to Reply #19
30. I won't be celebrating then!
Bush led Clinton by that much a couple months ahead of the election and Gore, at one point, had a rather handy lead over * in the polls. I'll celebrate after the vote is counted, and recounted and recounted, if necessary and * is OUT.
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Parche Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:45 PM
Response to Original message
32. KERRY
WE HAVE ONLY JUST BEGUN

NEVER GIVE UP THE SHIP

NOBODY HAS VOTED YET


JOHN KERRY PRESIDENT 2004
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XanaDUer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 06:50 PM
Response to Reply #32
34. Correct.
No need for anyone to throw in the towel. Yet.
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WiseMen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-09-03 07:29 PM
Response to Original message
35. Next months Dean vs. Kerry matchup will leave Kerry WINNER
Kerry is not finished for the simple reason that a head-to-head comparion between the Dean and Kerry will leave Kerry the winner. This type of comparison is likely to happen in the media and on the streets as we get closer to the vote. Kerry is the one candidate that clearly outshines Governor Dean who is now the leader.


Personal Character

John Kerry answered his nation’s call and enlisted to fight and lead men in a dubious war in Vietnam rather than let someone else die in his place. The nation gave him the Silver Star, Bronze Star and 3 Purple Hearts for his bravery, service and sacrifice.

John Kerry followed his tour of military duty with a life of service, working to end the War in which he fought and fighting to make government more accountable, to strengthen the economy, protect the environment, and improve the lives of hard-working Americans.

Howard Dean heard the call to Vietnam service and produced X-rays and a letter from his Doctor. The nation gave him a bad-back deferment and 1 year vacation on the ski-slopes of Aspen.

Like George W. Bush’s Vietnam Draft-Dodge into the Texas Air National Guard when he was “young and irresponsible,” Dr. Dean’s youthful maneuver memorializes the most shameful aspect of class and privilege in America – that the moneyed class can avoid their responsibilities and gain special advantages, yet end-up being celebrated for their success in life.

Iraq War and National Security

John Kerry voted for the Iraq war resolution because he believed it was the only way to force Sadaam to accept U.N. weapons inspectors, and he believed the President of the United States when he said that war would be “a last resort”. At the time of the vote, he made it clear that he opposed unilateral war and that he did not believe that the threat was imminent. He has since led the protest against Bush’s “rush to war,” inept foreign policy.

John Kerry’s military service, his two decades of participation in international diplomacy as a leader in the Senate and as a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, allows him challenge George Bush’s conduct of war and foreign policy in a post 9/11 world and prepares him to take the helm upon being sworn into office.

Howard Dean opposed the Iraq war because he believed that it was the only way to get his campaign off the ground. Dean’s own campaign staff described this newly discovered anti-war sentiment as a political maneuver to capture the “activist” movement and make up for the fact that Dean has the same foreign policy experience as governor George W. Bush prior to his election, that is, NONE.

While a potent critic of Mr. Bush, Dean’s statements on what he would have done instead and how he will deal with Iraq as president are ill-informed and incoherent. Dr. Dean’s fails the test of Credibility as Commander-In-Chief of the United States Armed forces. This is a MANDATORY requirement for a campaign against a SITTING PRESIDENT and a MAJORITY PARTY at war.

Howard Dean has not yet read the book on fighting international terrorism. John Kerry wrote it.

Progressive Record

John Kerry gets the best scores from independent groups for his environmental record and for issues affecting the working poor. For thirty years Kerry has fought for labor rights, women’s rights and campaign finance reform. Kerry’s record is solid on education and social security. He has opposed capital punishment, the NRA and all the fat-cat special interest lobby groups camped out in Washington.

Progressives can count on John Kerry to stand up for their values!

Howard Dean gets his best scores from the NRA. While Dr. Dean is often characterized as an “angry liberal,” he has admitted that he is no liberal. Dr Dean’s current positions are difficult to pin down, but appear to be at odds with his record and certainly his reputation as governor of Vermont.

His record as governor has been characterized as “Rockefeller Republican”, and is decidedly mixed. Vermont voter say of their former governor “he never saw a welfare program he did not want to cut.” Through his tenure as governor Dean made major cuts in aid to education, retirement funds for teachers and state employees, health care, Medicaid benefits, and welfare programs earmarked for the aged, blind and disabled, all under the cloak of “fiscal responsibility”. At the same time, Dean presided over the highest tax rate in the state.

Now Howard Dean wants to roll back all of the tax cuts enacted since Bush took office. Not only is this inconsistent with his priorities as governor, calling for a roll-back the Democratic middle class tax cuts is terrible politics against George W. Bush.

Open Government

John Kerry has fought to expose covert government actions in South-East Asian and Nicaragua, for public disclosure of campaign financing and for the freedom of Information in the Nation’s capital.

Kerry has himself been a victim of a secret investigation carried out by the Nixon Administration in the 70's when Kerry lead the anti-war effort.

Kerry’s record of pubic service as a prosecutor, in State Government and as a senator is open to public scrutiny. Kerry made his private letters and notes written during his service in Vietnam available for examination by the historian Douglas Brinkley.

Dean has fought to keep his Vermont records secret, and has now rejected Campaign fundraising and disclosure rules. He refuses to disclose whether he is abiding by state primary spending limits. About the sealing of his records, Dean said, “We didn't want anything embarrassing appearing in the papers.”

The former Governor's action to lock away his own gubernatorial records for an unprecedented 10 years has made a mockery of the Democratic call for disclosure of the records from Dick Cheney’s secret meetings, and of Democratic criticism of the administration’s love of secrecy.
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