Josh Marshall on the "inevitability" of Dean winning the nomination

[pruner]

Some random thoughts about the Democratic primary race.

I had lunch today with someone who is not a politician but a fairly prominent Washington Democrat -- certainly not someone from the party's liberal wing. And in the course of answering the question, I said "If it ends up being Dean ..." At which point, with the rest of my sentence still on deck down in my throat, my friend shot back : "It's Dean."

It was effortless. He wasn't happy or sad about it. He wasn't trying to convince me -- more like letting me in on something I apparently wasn't aware of yet.

We went back and forth over the various factors that play into the race. But the conclusion was that Dean is just in the zone, hitting on every cylinder, doing almost everything right tactically, and having the added benefit of having tons of money. Plenty of candidates have money and go nowhere because they don't know what to do with it. But at least at the moment that doesn't apply to Dean -- and that's certainly related to the fact that the money itself stems from campaign ingenuity, thus creating a sort of virtuous circle of fundraising success.

(I also keep running into McCain types who are very into Dean -- something which is on one level pretty surprising, but on another not surprising at all.

…

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2003_11_30.html#002276

[AWD]

1. I heard the same thing last week....

...from two separate political gurus. It was said so matter-of-fact.

If he wins two of the first three primary states, I'm voting for Kucinich in Ohio. I need to see a full load of support for DK in the polls on March 2nd so he will return in '06 as a Senatorial candidate.

[KoKo]

29. Gingrich is alive and well on DU. He said on C-Span this a.m.: "It's all

about winning, winning for your side." (In reference to the Medicare Vote and the Senator who was bought off)

My thought was: "Oh Yeah Newtie, that's what the House and Senate Elected are there for. Not to "serve the people" but to "win for their side."

That's what it's about. Post about Clark and the opposing team comes at ya....post about Dean and the opposing side comes at ya.

Hey it's all a GAME! And "We the People" are just pawns on a chessboard or "the team with a different colored uniform."

:puke:

[Eloriel]

2. Very cool

Yes, not only is it a virtuous circle of fundraising success, it conmtinues to generate all kinds of momentum in other areas since they are running such an aggressive, dynamic, creative campaign and obviously know how to put it to good use.

Eloriel

[KittyWampus]

8. Virtuous? Dean's Presidential Campaign Was Seeded W/ Money From Big Energy

And this isn't 6 degrees of seperation/ guilt by association crap that Eloriel spreads about other Candidates.


Dean raises money from energy sources
February 27, 2002

By David Gram

ASSOCIATED PRESS

MONTPELIER — When Gov. Howard Dean wanted to raise money for a possible presidential bid, he followed the example of a former governor of Texas and called on his friends in the energy industry.

Nearly a fifth of the roughly $111,000 collected in its first months by Dean’s presidential political action committee, the Fund for a Healthy America, came from people with ties to Vermont’s electric utilities, according to a recent Federal Elections Commission filing.

It should be no surprise. Dean and utility executives have had a long and friendly relationship.

snip

But the governor himself has said the donations buy access. “People who think they’re going to buy a contract or buy some influence are mistaken,” Dean famously said during the debate over a campaign finance reform bill in 1996. “But they do get access — there’s no question about that. ...They get me to return their phone calls.”

EDITED BY ADMIN: COPYRIGHT

http://timesargus.nybor.com/Legislature/Story/43125.html

[slinkerwink]

3. mmmm, that's interesting

[FrenchieCat]

4. Yea, I know about Inevitability........

It's like an accident....oops!

This is what I think...starting out with these polls I keep seeing.

Today MSNBC came out with a story titled "Poll shows Dean Edging past Edwards in South Carolina". That shocked me, so I decided to look at this polls and look at Zogby overall. It has been said that Zogby polls are "not accurate", but I wondered why. I am documenting my findings right here. Thus far I have written to MSNCB, Joe Conason and NewHour and Associated Press. I will also be writing to media watchdogs. Zogby polls should no longer be used. Here's my case and my evidence, as was communicated to Newhour's Producers:

Dear News Hour Producers,
In reference to the Shield and Brooks segment, I am tired of Howard Dean being shoved in my face as the "Frontrunner". The poll that was cited from South Carolina is a Zogby poll. Do I need to remind you about Zogby's reputation and history? These Zogby polls are "push polls" meaning the questions ask lead to certain answers. I request that you do a story on that instead. I am very frustrated as I know that Howard Dean cannot beat President Bush. It all feels like a big set up and I don't appreciate your assistance to that process. Please read what I am enclosing. It's an analysis of the poll and the media propaganda that is going on in these United States. We will not allow Pundits and news organizations to pick our democratic presidential candidate. Please refrain from using the Zogby poll as a source of your information. It is not accurate and it is biased. Please see the case that I am making below:

http://www.cesame-nm.org/Standards/Zogby.pdf Please read for comments on Zogby's methodology and his reputation. Please note this passage from the 8 page report from Chris Mooney, the American Prospect, January 13, 2003. "Zogby is unusual in the extent to which he has blended partisan and interest groups polling with credibility-enhancing contracts for media outlets such as Reuters, NBC News, MSNBC, and numerous newspapers and television stations. As Zogby himself acknowledges, the repute he derives from media polling helps him sell his services to more self interested clients. The lucky group end up with the Zogby brand name attached to findings that advance their agendas. "Media organizations should have people who absolutely aren't polling for interest groups", observed Robert Blendon, who directs Harvard University's Program of Public Opinion and Health and Social Policy. Blendon notes that most major polling conglomerates, such as ABC News/Washington Post poll, maintain firewalls between their work and outside interests." But there is more. Read at your leisure.

Also please see the wording of the poll (sample here is New Hampshire), but my understanding is that's how it's being done all over.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=750
Please note that questions 2, 5 & 6 are Push Poll questions. Those questions asked will later elicit a desired answer when asking which of the candidates to you favor. Question 2 is biased against General Wes Clark. Questions 5 & 6 are biased pro Howard Dean, and biased against most of the other candidates

Zogby New Hampshire Poll
Regardless of how you intend to vote, in your view, how likely is it that George W. Bush will be re-elected?
Should the Democratic party nominate someone who is a lifelong Democrat, or would Democrats be wise to select someone who is a recent convert to their way of thinking?
Overall, how would you rate the job performance of George W. Bush as President?
Regardless of how you may vote in next year's presidential election, would you say you like or dislike George W. Bush as a person?
Thinking about the upcoming election in November 2004, do you think it is important that the Democratic Party nominate a presidential candidate who opposed the war with Iraq on principle, or should the party select someone who voted to...
In a race for president, would you be more likely to support a Democratic candidate who supported the war in Iraq, or would you be more likely to support George W. Bush?
Furthermore, I have 3 samples of newspaper stories, over a given period of time, which basically say the same thing. That one particular candidate is not going to make it...he has faded, or fizzled......the same person that says the same thing is John Zogby. Now that should be a story!


http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/41887.htm
Here's an article talking about Clark's slowing momentum, titled
DEM DEAN'S ROCK SOLID IN GRANITE STATE Dated October 25, 2003....using Zogby poll as reference.

Democratic front-runner Howard Dean has zoomed into a "juggernaut" lead in the key presidential primary state of New Hampshire while retired Gen. Wesley Clark's support has sagged into single digits, a new poll shows.
Dean is at 40 percent - more than double Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) who is second at 17, followed by Clark and Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) tied for third at 6 percent each in the Zogby International poll.

Several prior polls put Clark at 10 or 11 percent and clearly in third in New Hampshire, but this survey suggests "The General" has fizzled in the wake of Iraq flip-flops and the revelation that he praised President Bush and voted for Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

"Clark's fizzle is the key to these numbers. Clark was hurting Dean. Now Clark has just collapsed and the direct beneficiary is Dean," said pollster John Zogby. ]

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1091321,00.html
Here's another attempt....1 month later! Smear piece Titled "Democrats' general on the retreat" - In another valiant attempt to squelch Clark's momentum - Dated November 23, 2003 - Story uses Zogby quotes on what's wrong with the Clark Campaign.

As President George W. Bush arrives home from his state visit to Britain, he will have the satisfaction of seeing Clark's campaign in crisis. It is low on funds, has lost key staff and is fizzling out in key battleground states.
Meanwhile, the campaign of Vermont governor Howard Dean has captured the public imagination, securing his place as the frontrunner in the still crowded field of nine Democrat candidates.

'There was tremendous potential in Clark as a candidate, but there have been major problems in the execution,' said John Zogby, head of polling organization Zogby International which conducted research for Clark supporters before the general's announcement that he was joining the race.

That caused dismay among many supporters. 'People know that if Clark wins the Democrat nomination, those quotes are just a Republican attack ad waiting to happen,' Zogby said.

Now, here a quote from the MSNBC story just out today. Here's a quote , notice who's doing the talking. http://www.msnbc.com/news/1001091.asp?0cv=CB20," Pollster John Zogby said Dean is strong in all regions and among all voter groups. The poll of 503 Democratic and independent voters was taken Dec. 1-3 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points."

Now this is the news story that should be reported. Heed my word, this will become news.

THE INAVITABILITY OF DEAN'S NOMINATION IS A SHAM, FED BY THE MEDIA WHORES.

[pruner]

5. I finally figured out who it is that you remind me of…

Don Quixote.



keep tilting at those windmills Frenchie.

[slinkerwink]

7. ahhhh, that's an apt analogy for Frenchie

she's very relentless in supporting Clark and that I admire in her.

[Patriot_Spear]

9. Yes, Clark will makes an excellent VP...

Bwaaahhhaaaaaa haha!

[FrenchieCat]

18. Well since Deanies don't bother to read....

anything, cause they are so right about everything! Even things that don't make sense....figure that!

[slinkerwink]

20. and you Clarkites think you're right about everything also.....

;-)

[FrenchieCat]

24. whatever....

but logic is out of the style in the Democratic party...that's what I see. The priority of this election was to beat George Bush, but I guess you forgot. Xcuse me.

[slinkerwink]

31. seems like your priority of this election is not to beat Bush, but Dean

so where's the logic in this case? You don't EVEN post good threads about Clark, only anti-Dean threads!

[SahaleArm]

32. Please, your entire campaign is about taking back the party!

:wtf:

[slinkerwink]

34. so? the Dems haven't done a good job with the party so far....

;-)

[SahaleArm]

35. Just don't sink it into oblivion...

:nuke:

[slinkerwink]

36. we're planning not to.....

for chrissakes, before I go to sleep, the Dean campaign raised $50,000 for Rep.Boswell, who's running for Congress, and is planning to ask us to raise more money for 19 other candidates!!!! That's really taking our party back and unifying it.

[John_H]

26. He reminds me of someone who

does research that smokes anything I've seen you put out.

[Patriot_Spear]

6. I couldn't help but snicker...

Come Josh, resistance is futile; you will be assimilated. We will add your political distinctiveness to our own.

I see Dean People- they're EVERYWHERE.

WooooooooHooooooo!!

Edit: had to remove smirk (feverent wish)

[mumishka]

10. As Yogi Bear said:

It's not over until it's over. Dean deserves enormous credit for grabbing hold of the legitimate anger that many democrats feel. But no one is without weaknesses and flaw, and Dean has an arrogance, and now a tendency for secrecy which don't go well with the quiet democrats who don't make a lot of noise on the net but who vote.

And Dean has no coherent domestic policy and no foreign experience. People say Edwards is young but numerous pundits have credited him with the most coherent domestic policy and he has been on the Senate Intelligence Committee. But most important in contrast to Dean who seems to speak before he thinks, Edwards always thinks first and seems to connect naturally with average Americans. I think it is Edwards who could beat Bush and that Dean will self-destruct.

[Patriot_Spear]

11. Aren't you cute...

We Deanies just raised $270,000 in a little over 24 hours to spank shrubs ass and you think we're about to 'self-destruct'? LMAO

[slinkerwink]

12. lol!

and isn't Clark at $11,519 something on his fundraiser for his birthday on the 23rd? We can easily hit that in a hour.

[Patriot_Spear]

13. I'm ready for another bat- Bring it on!

...Josh will soon be one of us.

[FrenchieCat]

14. Not as long

as the he has enough money to pay for Zogby "push Polls"....the inevitability is only an allusion being fed to us.

[slinkerwink]

16. ahhh, so that's the new spin

when polls come out that has Dean in the slight lead in SC, you say they've been push-polled.....or that the polls are biased. I'm just loving your illogical arguments everyday-----and how much has Clark raised on his birthday cake so far compared to our $275,000?

[FrenchieCat]

22. Did you read what questions are asked

in the Zogby Push poll that Dean pays for with your money? Your money that will be meaninglessly wasted by the time November 2004 comes around. Since Bush will still be in the White House.

[ryharrin]

37. Yeah, bush'll still be there in 2004

Dean won't be inaugurated until January 2005.

[Pastiche423]

15. Like it thought before he voted

for:

IWR

The Patriot Act

Judge D. Brooks Smith

Homeland Security

Yucca mtn

the bankruptcy bill

?

[blm]

17. Dean was for

IWR as per Biden-Lugar which still provided Bush with final determination for use of force.

Dean SUGGESTED a Patriot Act just THREE days after 9-11. Russert asked him about it on his July, 2002 MTP interview. He also said he "tended to agree with the president" in regard to TIPS.

Dean pushed for Yucca Mtn. as far back as 96 and until it was finalized.

Koch Industries/Entergy/Vermont Yankee + Dean = sealed papers

Cheney lite?

[Patriot_Spear]

21. Links?

...or lies?

[John_H]

19. In a way I hope the Dean campaign people actually believe the stuff they

and the GOP putting out about the inevitability of his nomination. Nobody's inevitable this early, and to believe that their guy's a shoe in is exactly the kind of mistake that can lose it for him.

[Patriot_Spear]

23. Good point- Deaniacs should'nt let our guard down...

Eye on the prize...

[FrenchieCat]

25. Which prize ....

Nominating Dean...which seems to be y'all priority, or Defeating George Bush...which is mine?

[slinkerwink]

27. both prizes......oh, my dear little Frenchie.....

you're so relentless. *pets*

[slinkerwink]

28. :kick:

:kick: Go Dean!

[slinkerwink]

30. :kick:

:kick:

[ultrafoil]

33. Rather tame around here.

Try harder.

Hardly worth my time to click on it.