Is Clark a threat to Dean in New Hampshire?

[Mattforclark]

http://www.tnr.com/etc.mhtml

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IS CLARK A THREAT TO DEAN IN NEW HAMPSHIRE?: We were about to post an item saying we didn't know quite what to make of the latest Zogby poll showing Howard Dean up 30 points on John Kerry in New Hampshire. On the one hand, it does appear that Dean is surging and Kerry is fading--both across the country and in New Hampshire. (A recent poll showed Dean up 9 points on Kerry in Massachusetts, Kerry's home turf.) On the other hand, Zogby's polls have at times been wildly off-base, as Josh Marshall catalogued in this Slate piece in 2000.

Then came today's American Research Group poll showing pretty much the same result, and we started to suspect there was something big going on here. Dean had the support of 45 percent of the voters surveyed by ARG, compared with Kerry's 13. Worse for Kerry, Wesley Clark was only 2 points back, well within the poll's margin of error.

As Mickey Kaus suggests, the real story here may be that Dean has dispatched of Kerry too soon. If present trends continue, Clark will be alone in second place in New Hampshire by the end of the year. Add to that the possibility, which we pointed out yesterday, that Clark could actually surpass Dean in fundraising this quarter, and it's not a huge stretch to think Clark could be within striking distance of Dean come mid-January.

Snippet--->

This is certainly not intended to be 'anti-Dean,' if anyone has that perception. I will support him (or anyone else) wholeheartedly if he/she wins the nomination.

[Forkboy]

1. No,not in NH

[KittyWampus]

54. There Are Still Undecideds In NH

And Dean's actual record IS going to come under closer scrutiny.

There are some very problematic bits and pieces to Dean that seldom gets acknowledged...

That some of the seed money for Dean's Presidential Campaign came from an EXTREMELY unsavory source indicates that there may be more to Dean's sealed records than meets many of his supporters' eye.

Before Dean was "People Powered" his Presidential AND Gubernatorial campaigns were "Nuclear/Big Energy Powered".

Also, Dean's stances on some pretty basic Liberal Issues changed only a year ago...

It sure looks like Dean is the "Man" in NH.... and, as a Clark supporter, I hope Dean, his campaign & his supporters become overconfident.

I sse an indication of this on DU this very moment.

[Forkboy]

72. Clark still isn't a threat in NH

of course in politics all things can change overnight,but I dont see it.But Clark doesn't need to be a threat to Dean in NH,just finish decently,which I think he will.Second place would be a great finish for him,and I think he'll get it.

[returnable]

5. I don't think Clark is a threat to the lead in NH...

...but a strong second-place finish certainly could alter the primary picture heading into February 3.

That's not exactly news to anyone :)

[Larkspur]

7. Dean did not dispatch of Kerry. Kerry is imploding.

His IWR vote has haunted him since Al Gore bowed out and Kerry was the designated front runner. Also, Kerry ignored the Dem base to his own detriment in his pursuit of large donors. Dean was wise to court the base first.

Dean's campaign is very lean, flexible, and powerful. Clark hasn't a clue how to derail it. He's failed to put a dent into Dean's anti-war base, and he entered the race late which forced him to take FEC matching funds. Taking the matching funds will kill Clark's campaign, should he win the nomination, against Bush's behemouth machine.

[Racenut20]

16. Sounds like a good analysis to me.

I saw that poll this morning that showed Clark leading Pinellas County Florida where all of us olllllllld vets live, and Leiberman ahead on the east coast for obvious reasons, and Dean ahead in the more liberal university areas.

[KaraokeKarlton]

17. If he had of entered earlier, yes, but at this point, he can't beat him

Dean supporters are fiercely loyal. Right now Dean has 45% in NH and there are only 20% undecided. The ONLY way Clark could even come close to beating Dean in NH is if everyone else dropped out before NH, and even then, Dean would pick up enough of those votes to still beat Clark.

[mdmc]

18. Nope!

NH takes its primary seriously. Clark got in too late. Most conservative dems in NH will not want to split up their block. Unless something happens to Gephardt, Edwards, or Leiberman, or if something happens in the Hauge (Milosovic trial), Clark won't be able too take much away from Dean.

[CWebster]

19. TNR is a centrist rag-

An anti-Dean mouthpiece. Dean could have 99% of the vote locked up and they would try to spin it as a potential Clark win.

Who needs Republicans...

[Renew Deal]

6. Attack the content not the author.

That's what you said the other day about the smear piece on Clark. Are you being a little hypocritical?

Who needs republicans? We do. We need all the votes we can get.

[CWebster]

43. You mean the one in the Nation

for which you ragged out on the author, the editor of the Nation, Indy-media and Commomdreams as well?

Of course they have a progressive agenda, which may be in conflict with your own.

This is a mouthpiece for the New Democrat, which has made it's anti-progressive, anti-activist agenda well known enough---why would their spin be a surprise?

Who needs Republicans....means who needs Republicans to bash democrats when democrats are more than willing to do the job for them.

[Khephra]

20. "Dean has dispatched of Kerry too soon"

Just another way for someone to say: "Dean's peaked too soon!"

Yeah, we've heard it already. It's not true now and it won't be true later on.

(No offense to the Clarkies. I like Clark a lot.)

[slinkerwink]

2. lol, I love those cries of how Dean has peaked too soon

;-)

[mdmc]

3. perhaps those cries

will be of joy later.... Dean supporter conceeding that it is still early.

[boxster]

4. It's interesting how many Dean supporters summarily dismiss...

the "peaked too soon" possibility and assume that he can't be beat - not in NH and not for the nomination.

There is certainly a history of candidates peaking too soon or a significant development changing the outcome of the primaries.

Just ask Paul Tsongas. Or Gary Hart. Or any other number of early front runners in the past.

Dean winning the nomination is not a foregone conclusion, and he needs to be careful not to let overconfidence make him believe that he can say or do anything and still get the nomination.

[DianeK]

8. and he peaks again!

[Khephra]

9. Well...

Maybe we dismiss it easily because people have been saying variations of the "Peaked" comment for more than 6-8 months now?

[KaraokeKarlton]

10. Dean won't "peak" until the last day of his second term as president

That's when he will stop fighting full force to set this country on the right track. He'll still work for the country, but not full time.

[Hep]

11. The problem with the "peaked too soon" argument

is the tense. PEAKED too soon? WTF? He's STILL PEAKING. You can't use past tense when something is still going on. Say PEAKING too soon.

And then tell me why you think, as Dean's support continues to GROW, now that we're what, 45 days from the Iowa caucuses, exactly when you think this decline will take place.

Seriously, looks more like a plateau than a peak to me. PRove me wrong.

[boxster]

30. Did you even read my post?

Nowhere did I say that I think a decline WILL take place. I said that Dean needs to make sure that overconfidence does not lead him to believe that he can do or say anything he wants and that he'll still get elected.

Many of his supporters are incredibly overconfident, to the point of absurdity. In other postings today, they're proclaiming his 1% lead in ONE SC poll as the end to all of the other candidates.

1% means nothing, especially in combination with the huge percentage of undecided voters. And a win in IA and NH doesn't lock away the nomination. Clinton won neither IA nor NH and obviously still won the nomination.

[Hep]

46. Did YOU read your post?

You're talking about peaking too soon. You knw what it means to peak, right? To say "peaked too soon" you conjure images of a decline. If you use the past tense PEAKED that means the peaking is over, that one is no longer peaking, which means that a decline has taken place. So YES, just by USING that term, you DID suggest that a decline has taken place. Which it hasn't. Hence the problem with using past tense.

We're not overconfident. That would suggest that we're laying off our efforts, like when a basketball team is winning by so much that they allow the opponents to catch up by not putting forth the same effort. It's an unfair characterization. We may seem to be gloating, and rubbing it in, for which I apologize, but we're not overconfident. We're more focused now and working more feverishly than ever at getting this nomination and winning the election. Every small victory makes us work harder.

1% means nothing, but to take any lead, or even tie in the south that dean is supposed to have no chance in, considering he has yet to OPEN AN OFFICE there, is pretty impressive. It means the PEOPLE do make a difference.

[boxster]

53. Oh, please. You must be joking.

Just because I used the term "peaked too soon", it means that I'm suggesting that it has taken place? In what world?

By your logic, I guess that if I say that Clark supporters summarily dismiss talk about him being a war criminal, that means that I'm suggesting that he IS a war criminal. Yeah, that makes perfect sense.

Please take a moment to realize how silly your statement is. My posting says NOTHING about me personally believing it has happened or that it will happen.

My posting warns of the dangers of overconfidence and of summarily dismissing concerns people have about Dean. Nothing more. To assume that Dean can deflect any and all concerns because he's going to win regardless (as some of his supporters have vehemently claimed) is misguided, and I'm sure it's not a view he personally shares.

[Hep]

59. Well

You say we dismiss it too readily. Are you saying you readily dismiss it as well? Do you thikn we should suvbscribe to notions that you won't claim to subscribe to? Do you think the "peaked too soon" term applies? If not, then why did you bring it up?

We deflect concerns when they're moronic. At least I do. I listen intently to valid concerns and pass them on to the campaign.

[robsul82]

68. I just wanna know...

...where that "He Peaked Too Soon - Inauguration '05" cartoon is. lol

Later.

RJS

[boxster]

71. No.

I brought it up because many Dean supporters, you included, write it off as "moronic", to use your term.

It's not moronic, it's realistic. It's a common theme in many elections in history and several in the past couple of decades. I'm not going to ignore recent history, and I'm not quite sure why you're so readily willing to do so.

As is quite obvious, I brought it up because it's a possibility.

Am I saying it's going to happen? Nope.

Do I think it'll happen? Probably not.

Is it a possibility that needs to be considered? Yes, because to do otherwise would be ignorant.

If Dean is going to win the nomination and go on to win the election, he certainly cannot have the same attitude of many of his supporters - that he's immune to a Donna Rice/Willie Horton/McCain's-illegitimate-kid-push-polling moment.

He needs to be careful that he doesn't create that moment himself or put himself in a position where he is constantly on the defensive.

For example, his flippant remark that he'd release his governor records "when Bush releases his" is the kind of moment that has the potential to make a difference. What if Bush calls his bluff? And, what if it turns out that there really is something there that can be used against him? Unrealistic? No.

Or his recent resurrection of the Soviet Union. While it obviously wasn't his intention, it made him seem a little detached from the world reality. We'll never see that comment in context - it'll always be sound bytes about how Dean doesn't understand that the Soviet Union has been Russia for 15 years. It's hard to bash Bush on foreign policy if there's even the (false) impression that Dean is ignorant about the rest of the world.

My point is this: I would much prefer that Dean be proactive and consider the ramifications of his statements and actions rather than see him have to become reactive and defensive.

Defensive doesn't work, as Al Gore can certainly attest.

If Dean wins the nomination, he will have my wholehearted support next fall. The bottom line though, is that he needs to beat Bush, or all of this is in vain. He won't do that if he's forced to constantly defend his statements and/or actions.

Is this something easy to quantify? No. Is it easy to defend against? No. All I'm saying is that Dean (just like every other candidate) needs to be understanding of the fact that every gaffe has the potential to become a big deal.

[Hep]

73. Look.

Saying he peaked to soon is something you don't have to even consider until he stops peaking. That's it. It IS a moronic claim to make and can be dismissed as such because it hasn't happened yet. It's like saying things are great until his impending car accident kills him.

Yes, when thinkgs unforld, we may be saying he peaked too soon. But right now, it is not only a moronic thing to say, but it's not even true. What's the point? Thats all I'm saying.

Dean's not ignorant about the world, and he has the same leeway that any of the candidates have.

You're right in a lot of what you say. There are many potential problems that loom before us. What can I say? We'll prevent the problems we can prevent and prepare for the ones we FAIL to prevent. We're ready, able, and up to the task.

[annxburns]

12. Asking some Dean supporters ....

... not to be self-satisfied and smug is like asking the sky not to be blue. I will support Dean if he is the nominee. But, I say again, if the dems put up a draft-avoiding, "I can hide my records cuz Bush does", raise your taxes, arrogant, abrasive yankee from a small northeastern state - then we deserve what we get. I hope it will be the White House, but I wouldn't count on it.

[Ripley]

14. Um, "abrasive yankee?"

As someone living in the south who defends it on a regular basis here at DU, that phrase sounds like something a hillbilly bigot would say.

Oh yeah, I'm not self-satisfied and smug. Gee, isn't that a great debate tactic...attack the candidate's supporters.

[Hep]

15. Yeah, god forbid that we be proud

of our efforts and energized by how well they pay off.

[annxburns]

21. You have a right to be proud ...

... but I am a little sick of those supporters, and yes they are in the minority, who delight in tearing down other candidates. There are other supporters who do it of course, but some Dean supporters act like we don't even have to vote, we should just "anoint" Dean, and as someone who feels the last election was stolen, that bugs me.

By the way, I am from the south too. And the characterization of Dean is not what I believe, but how I believe he will be painted if he is the nominee.

[Ripley]

24. Why are you buying into that crap?

Do you really think all southerners are afraid of Yankees? If Clark or Edwards is on his ticket, it's a done deal.

No Democrat running will get the hard core "nothern-liberal haters" in Dixieland, so who gives a shit what they think?

[annxburns]

35. Because ...

.. I am from the south. I just recently moved to Michigan from North Carolina and I feel I know the region. The top of the ticket is what counts.

Look, I HOPE you are right and I am wrong. I hope that Dean can somehow turn this hard-core democratic grassroots effort into a GE powerhouse that sweeps him into office ...

But I am afraid. Because I think this election is the most important of my life. I think America stands on a turning point in history, and we can either move forward with our allies and friends toward a safer and secure world, or Bush and his cronies will create a long-term disaster in the middle-east which my children and children's children will pay for.

I really don't care who wins the Democratic nomination. I don't. I like all our top-tier candidates and don't see a hell of a lot of major policy differences between them. But the dem nominee better win. I cannot take four more years of Bush, Cheney and the rest of the bastards that lied us into an unnecessary war.

[Hep]

38. I don't know when you moved

But NC is not only a strong Dean state, but it's a swing state in the national election waiting to be swung.

[Ripley]

39. I'd like to believe that too.

Most of my relatives live in NC. Lots of sad stories, like my cousin who was a manager at a furniture plant. Plant closed recently, lots of laid off people like him in their 50's. He had a heart attack and now is a short-order cook at the country club cafe where he used to play golf. Don't think he's a Bush fan anymore.

[annxburns]

40. Just recently ...

... and the latest poll I saw had Bush beating every Dem candidate by a wide margin - including Edwards, who is probably my favorite candidate right now.

Like I said, I hope you are right.

[Hep]

42. Hard to say

I like Edwards. He has recently vaulted into my #2 slot. But Carter in *1980* got a higher percentage of the votes in NC than in most other states. Clinton lost NC in 1992 by less than 1 percent, and a very similar set of circumstances exists today to those of 1976, the last time a D took NC. I'm optimistic, but I really think we can do it.

[Hep]

26. Singling out Dean people

is funny, considering the sheer numbe rof Anti Dean people who ALSO act like we don't have to vote, that Dean has no shot anyway.

It's just so funny that people leave that out. I expect the following reply:

"I know others do it, but Dean people are worse"

Maybe that's just because you're not a Dean fan. Maybe if you were it would look different.

[Ripley]

27. Yep.

If anyone thinks he should be annointed it would be Kerry. His fans will pretty much tell you so, after all he's worked in Congress for 30 years. (As if that is a selling point to most voters ;-) hah!)

[boxster]

31. The number of Dean supporters who think we should just hand

him the nomination is exponentially higher than the number of supporters of other candidates who think he "has no shot".

In fact, do you have a link to a single posting where any DUer said that Dean can't win the Democratic nomination?

Of course he can win. Saying otherwise would be silly and I think you're confusing people who say Dean shouldn't win with those (very few) who think he can't.

[Hep]

41. See?

Funny, I don't know anyone who doesn't wish the party would just hand their guy the nomination. But we Dean supporters know how much work is involved with winning this primary. WE'RE the only ones DOING the work. We're writing letters in the tens of thousands to undecided voters. We're traveling to other states for rallies and to knock on doors. We're donating record amounts of money.

Funny how we're doing all this work and putting all of this time, energy and money into this effort while people like you claim we're expecting the nomination to be handed to us. Lemme know when you open your eyes.

No one said Dean can't win the nomination. I'm talking about people saying he can't win the election. Do you really want me to forward every post I get that suggests that? You'd better have a luge inbox.

[annxburns]

44. Like I said ...

... it's a minority. I am not saying all of his supporters do this. And yeah, you must be tired of people saying he can't win the GE, it has to be annoying. But I do think there are some valid points as to why he may not be the strongest GE candidate. Maybe I am wrong, maybe he will really grow as a candidate and I am seriously underestimating him. But I haven't seen much to change my opinion, yet.

And, by the way, I don't think Clark is the strongest GE candidate yet either. He has gotten better but I think he is still too inexperienced. I think someone with more political experience like Edwards, Gep, or Kerry might have a better shot.

[Hep]

49. Valid arguments are valid arguments

and well thought out opinions are welcome. It's fair to not think Dean has the best shot or isn't the best man for the job. I certainly can't fault anyone for their opinions or their interpretations of facts. Most of us are just doing our best for our guy.

The really aggravating thing in this forum has been people talking as if their opinions are truth and that people who don't share them are idiots or brainwashed. And I wish I could say that Dean supporters are innocent, but no. Some of the Dean supporters have been among the worst violators of the rules of civility, but as I told someone else. That's a personality problem, and every campaign has people with that personality and every campaign distances themselves from those assholes as quickly and effectively as possible.

[annxburns]

51. Okay, thanks ...

... I would never say my opinions are the same as truth. I have been wrong and like I said, I hope I am wrong if Dean wins the nod. And
right now I am trying to help all our candidates by contributing and supporting the Democratic party, new registrations and GOTV is going to be so important next fall.

[boxster]

57. Ah, yes, you're the only ones doing any work.

"People like you" - that's rather elitist of you, don't you think?

Until fairly recently, I was undecided between Clark and Dean and was keeping an open mind towards several of the other candidates. I've tried very hard to separate the candidates from their supporters, because many supporters are doing more harm than good for their candidates.

But, honestly, it's people like you (your term, remember) who turn people away from Dean. Do you realize how condescending and arrogant your posting sounds?

Let me paraphrase it for you: "We're the only ones who work. We work so hard at this, so much harder than you. You don't do anything other than whine and complain that we want the nomination handed to us. You blind, ignorant fool."

Many Dean supporters, you included, act like they're the only ones who've had to work in this campaign. Oh, we work so hard. We knock on doors. We raise money. Sweat, blood, and tears.

No one else on earth does any of this stuff, of course. No one has ever considered the concept of a grass roots campaign. No one has ever knocked on doors. No one has ever raised money.

Gee, it's amazing anyone ever ran for public office before Dean did since everything he's done is so unique!

By the way, this entire thread and all of my comments have been regarding the primary, not the GE. Your comment about people saying Dean can't win was read in that context.

And, if you think the talk about Dean being unable to win next fall has been bad thus far, you better prepare yourself because I guarantee it isn't going to improve between now and the nomination. Politics is politics.

[Ripley]

60. I don't believe Hep was being arrogant.

He was responding to criticism that Dean supporters say "Dean should be annointed." He replied that Dean supporters do not feel that way, we actually work hard for his campaign. I did not see Hep say other candidate's supporters did not work hard, or that no one else had ever worked hard.

Why do you want to fight about who works harder?

[Hep]

64. Well, I have to admit

I did say we're the only ones. I should have clarified it by saying that this is my perception. That I know a lot of people are working very hard for their candidate. I just don't see the huge, grassroots efforts. I was being a bit arrogant. Sorry.

[Ripley]

66. Last time I defend you!

:spank:

You, you, you, aw shucks. You apologized, so okay.

[Hep]

63. I was hoping that someone would respond to that

Of course I don't think that we;re the only ones doing any work. But we're the only ones who have sent tens and tens of thousands of letters to undecideds in IA and NH. We're the only ones who get hundreds of people from various states to travel to IA and NH and SC to know on the doors of strangers to talk to them.

Arrogant and condescending as my post may be, shame on your for allowing a supporter to turn you away from a candidate. It shouldn't be that big a struggle.

Let me paraphrase it for you: "We're the only ones who work. We work so hard at this, so much harder than you. You don't do anything other than whine and complain that we want the nomination handed to us. You blind, ignorant fool."

That was pretty good until the last sentence. The facts remain. For the last five meetups, we've sat down and shared our stories with strangers in hand written letters, and every time we do it, Dean's numbers surge in IA and NH. What did you do at your last meetup?

We're the only ones in my community who are actively making sure that our county has representation on a precinct level. Party organization on a local level has bene tragic. We don't even have a headquarters, and I live in the liberal BASTION of my state. So it's DEAN people who decided to deal with it and solve it.

Seriously, I'll take it all back if you can show me what the grassroots in YOUR campaign are doing. I spend 4-6 days a week doing Dean things.

I never said no one has ever done this or that. I'm saying, no one is doing it now. If they are, you'd never know it.

[boxster]

74. Blind.

Re: "You blind, ignorant fool.", you said:

Funny how we're doing all this work and putting all of this time, energy and money into this effort while people like you claim we're expecting the nomination to be handed to us. Lemme know when you open your eyes.

I don't think my concise statement was terribly far from what you said. Especially, "Lemme know when you open your eyes." Hmm. I may not be blind, but I'm blind to your issues, apparently.

"shame on your (sic) for allowing a supporter to turn you away from a candidate. It shouldn't be that big a struggle."

Ah, you misinterpreted my statement.

I didn't say you turned me personally away from your candidate. I said, "But, honestly, it's people like you (your term, remember) who turn people away from Dean." What postings like yours do is influence people to take a closer look at Dean, which is partially your intent. What isn't your intent is that people will equate your attitude and project it on Dean.

I certainly didn't turn away from Dean because of you or any other Dean supporters. In fact, if Clark weren't in the race, I'd probably still consider voting for Dean. I've seen other posters, however, who appear to have reconsidered in large part because of comments and actions of supporters.

[maxanne]

61. as someone from the south

which gets a fair share of abuse here and everywhere else, it's interesting that you use "arrogant abrasive yankee from a small northeastern state." I am about as sick of hearing about how irrelevant small NE states are, as you must be of hearing ya'll are a bunch of dumb redneck cross burning nascar watching hicks.

Just so you know.

signed, maxanne - abrasive yankee from NH.

[Ripley]

13. Gary Hart was just stupid.

I don't think you're going to see a photograph of Dean on a boat called "Monkey Business" cavorting with a woman half his age who is not his wife.

And didn't Tsongas reveal he had cancer. Of which he died of not too many years later?

Dean does not have a major illness to reveal.

[boxster]

36. Again, it's the overconfidence that I'm concerned about.

All I'm saying is that Dean needs to make sure that overconfidence doesn't make him feel invincible. It doesn't take a Donna Rice moment to change voters' minds any more. The media latches on to the dumbest events and makes ongoing hack jobs out of them.

Tsongas was diagnosed with cancer in 1984, well before the '92 primaries. This fact was well known going into the campaign. His cancer recurred after the '92 elections, and he died in '97.

[Zomby Woof]

22. actually, Dean cringes at being called a frontrunner

He eschews it, because he knows this is a race, and not a cakewalk. Whatever my disagreements with Dean, he doesn't take his current standings for granted. He'll campaign as if he is behind.

[mmonk]

23. A second place there

would be a big plus. Momentum going into the states where he has a good shot.

[OKNancy]

25. Hummmmm what other Democrat got a second

in NH and all the talk was that it was like a win?

[Larkspur]

28. If Clark takes 2nd but gets blown out by Dean, Clark will NOT have

momentum because the news will be about how Dean scores an historic rout of the NH primaries and how that will help him in states like, Arizona, where Dean leads Clark, New Mexico, where Dean leads and has the support of most of Gov Richardson's network, and Rep Jesse Jackson Jr's endorsement coupled with the rout in NH and possible IA, will help Dean in Southern states, especially with the African American community.

[mmonk]

29. how silly of me

:eyes:

[Larkspur]

32. It is. What Clarkies haven't figured out is that Dean has momentum NOW

Clark is playing catch-up and has a long, very long way to go to catch Dean.

[mmonk]

33. If Dean gets the nomination

you folks are going to be hard to work with in the general election (as I usually help to get out the vote for the nominee).

[Larkspur]

47. If Clark really wanted to win the Presidency, he should have entered

sooner, as in a year sooner. His late entry did not give him time to build a campaign organization to handle the front loaded primary race.

What you Clarkies forget when you compare 2004 to 1992 is that Bill Clinton had more time to regroup after coming in 2nd in 1992 than Clark will in 2004, should he come in 2nd in NH. And I don't think Clinton was blown out in NH either. The DNC stacked the 2004 primaries so that a Dem nominee can be decided on by mid-March. This stacking favored the Establishment Dems with name recognition, but they squandered their chances. Clark has name recognition, but he had no organization to build a campaign network of political activists until he entered very late and that network met stiff resistance in Iowa and New Hampshire.

And of course, Clark and Clarkies have greatly underestimated Dean's superb campaign skills. Dean is way ahead of the field in building a coalition to support his nomination and general election battle, and his decision to forgo FEC matching funds was based upon the fruits of his efforts to build the greatest grassroots campaign in American history.

Clark may have been a great military tactician, but he is a dunce in the civlian political field compared to Gov. Howard Dean.

[boxster]

48. McCain stomped on Bush in NH in 2000.

Six months before the primary, Bush had a big lead. McCain beat him by 18 points. The news media was all over it.

Didn't matter, obviously.

A big win in NH does not mean the nomination is a lock.

And, how exactly do you think NH and IA help Dean in the South? Did the Tsongas win in '92 in NH help Paul in the South? Or the McCain win in '00?

You're making connections that, frankly, just don't exist. Strength in the Midwest and the Northeast means very little in the South.

[tsipple]

34. You Can Argue Expectations Both Ways Here

Is Clark peaking too soon? Now it won't be so much of a surprise if he manages to take (distant) second place in New Hampshire.

I'm not at all a fan of the dumb horserace stories, and this TNR article is yet another reason why.

[mmonk]

37. I thought a New England state

would be a stronghold of Dean and Kerry. Maybe I'm wrong?:shrug:

[tsipple]

62. Kerry, Certainly

Dean, not so much. Vermont and New Hampshire, despite sharing a border, are rather different. It's weird, really. Maybe it's the river between them (and the bridges you have to cross). Different media markets, too.

But you're changing the subject. :-) My point is that you only beat expectations if there's a surprise. Now that it's no secret that Clark may take (distant) second place in New Hampshire, it's not much of a surprise.

[SheilaT]

45. Dean and his supporters do not think he

deserves to be handed the nomination. He and they take nothing for granted and are working as hard as they can to get him nominated and then elected President. They've written more than 50,000 letters to Iowa voters. They've contributed more money to the Dean campaign than to any other Democratic campaign ever. They phone and leaflet and register voters. It's a grass roots kind of organization that no other candidate can match.

And I'll repeat: they don't think he simply deserves to be handed the nomination. They're willing to work and work hard for it.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

55. Nicely said, thanks

I have not seen any letup in the Dean supporters, either. We know it's going to take an extraordinary effort and we are working hard.

I'm off to Iowa next month, and hope to go to NH too.

A great deal of my free time (free meaning I don't get paid when I'm doing this!) is spent on the campaign. We can't take anything for granted.

[CMT]

50. I guess Dean will just have to take 'em one at a time

Right now he is battling Gep in Iowa (a new poll shows it close but Dean has taken the lead). He has been battling Kerry since January when Kerry was ahead and now Dean is solidly ahead. If Clark begins to threaten he will do battle with him. We will see what happens.

[annxburns]

52. Right now there is no single "anti-Dean" ...

... Clark, Gep, Edwards all have the possibility of stopping Dean. I think it may be too late for Kerry, if he doesn't get his act together RIGHT NOW, I think he is done. And Lieberman - I don't know, what the hell is wrong with him? Could he attack BUSH maybe once instead of attacking the other dems and the evil donut lobby?

And if Dean takes them all and knocks them all down - then, of course, he deserves the nod.

[unfrigginreal]

56. LOL

Clark better pay more attention to keeping up with Dean's momentum in what is a must win state for him, South Carolina.

[poskonig]

58. Not directly.

But if Clark gets 2nd place, he will get enough press coverage give the Dean campaign headaches shortly afterwards.

[slinkerwink]

67. yes, but not if he's a distant second

I think DC is the first primary, and then IA. If Dean wins in both places, his numbers in NH will skyrocket up to past 50%, I'm willing to bet.

[maxanne]

65. Sorry

Maybe if Clark spent every day here until the primary he'd be a threat.

He entered the field late, and he didn't spend much time here at all. Our impression was that he'd pretty much written us off. He's never been above the center of the state. The cities aren't all there is to NH - and that's been a huge tactical error on his part.

The worst though, was his entering the campaign so late. By then we'd had months to get to know everyone else. Kerry, Dean, Gephardt, and Lieberman had all been here a few times before Clark entered the race. All the campaign workers had been around forever by then - we were all buddies.

His campaign also made some poor staffing decisions up north. Sending a bunch of southerners to a mill town full of French Canadians might have been a tactical error. ;-) By the time they got sent up there, Gephardt was firmly entrenched as a union candidate.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

69. If Dean Pulls Over 50% OR If No One Else Gets 15%

Then second place will be close to meaningless, IMO. In the first case, the sheer magnitude of Dean winning an outright majority would be practically unheard of, given the large size of the field. In the second case, Dean would sweep all of the delegates.

Clark needs to shoot for 15% and second place in NH, and hope that Dean falls below 50%, in order to get some kind of bounce.

DTH

[neverforget]

70. There is a lot of time between now and the first vote being cast in

NH. I don't think anyone has the nomination because hardly anyone is paying any attention. This isn't a time for gloating.