Dean and Gephardt Battle it out to the Political Death

[slinkerwink]

Analysis
Two See Iowa as Crucial Battleground
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, November 29, 2003; Page A01

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/images/I20274-2003Nov28L


DES MOINES -- The state of Iowa always plays an outsize role in the presidential nomination process, but perhaps never more so than in 2004. An intensifying battle here between former Vermont governor Howard Dean and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) suggests that the first major contest in the Democratic race may also prove to be the most important.

Dean has never made a secret of his strategy for capturing the Democratic nomination: beat Gephardt in Iowa, beat Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) in New Hampshire and dare any of his opponents to stop him. In New Hampshire, he already holds a solid lead over Kerry, but in Iowa, Gephardt stands squarely in his path. A Gephardt victory on Jan. 19 could significantly complicate Dean's path to the nomination.

"It's pretty hard to construct a scenario where somebody gets started from a standing start in all these states that come after that," Gephardt said in an interview when asked about the chances of stopping Dean if he wins the first two big contests. "But it's a question that we don't need to ask, because I'm going to win Iowa."

<snip>

[elperromagico]

1. I caught something on MSNBC yesterday,

on one of their "Campaign Embeds" segments, where the Dean-Gephardt dispute was being highlighted. Dean said something like, "I'm not gonna take any sass from Washington types." Maybe it was just the use of the word "sass," or Dean's defiant tone, but the comment cracked me up.

[slinkerwink]

5. lol, awww

wish I could've seen that clip.

[killbotfactory]

21. Hahah

Zounds!

[janx]

28. Wow, I haven't heard that word used in a long time!

My mother used it, as I remember.

[dfong63]

2. IA is a must-win state for Gep, but not for Dean

the fact that Gep is struggling in IA, where he was originally considered almost a shoo-in, is a testament to Dean's awesome campaign.

[virtualobserver]

3. and even if Gephardt wins Iowa.....

he won't win anywhere else. Gephardt is just takin' up space.

[slinkerwink]

11. Gephardt's strategy of putting it all in one state won't help him

if he loses. If he wins, however, he gets to take off the luster of the Dean momentum, and that's going to help whoever ends up being the anti-Dean.

[Zomby Woof]

23. he won there in '88

And he went nowhere. Iowa is mere hype. It rarely, if ever, determines anything of relevance about who the nominee will be, let alone the next president.

[slinkerwink]

33. that's because Gephardt didn't have enough money to spend in other states

and Dean has plenty of money to spend in other states other than IA and NH----he's also making a run for SC in opening up offices there this week.

[elperromagico]

6. Iowa is generally less important in primary politics than NH.

Iowa has approximately a 50% success rate when it comes to picking the Dem presidential nominee, and about a 12.5% success rate when it comes to picking a Democrat who goes on to win the Presidency. 25% of all Iowa caucus winners (Democratic and Republican) have gone on to win that year's general election.

New Hampshire has approximately a 54% success rate when it comes to picking the Dem presidential nominee, and about a 31% success rate when it comes to picking a Democrat who goes on to win the Presidency. 42% of all New Hampshire primary winners (Democratic and Republican) have gone on to win that year's general election.

[slinkerwink]

9. we'll see what happens, shall we?

so far, the Dean campaign has been bucking all political convention, and I expect for the combined combo of winning IA and NH to be a first in putting Dean into the nomination process.

[FrenchieCat]

4. The political death

of all of us is an accurate pronouncement.

[slinkerwink]

7. stfp........

geez........I'm so eager to prove you wrong when Dean wins the nomination AND the general election. But then, you're so blind to ONE candidate that nothing else matters but him. Let me guess, you won't lift a finger to help Dean win the general election if he gets nominated. Geez....now that's American political apathy for you!

[Scott Lee]

14. The Sky is Falling!! Aaaa!!!

Brie?

[slinkerwink]

15. with pecans and honey on top?

sure!

[slinkerwink]

19. more whining.....whine, whine.....makes me want wine....

I think I'll get a nice glass of whine (oops, I meant wine)

[JNelson6563]

26. ah yes, another assertion based on your elusive facts?

;-)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=788596#788614

There's the forest.....see beyond the trees.....

Handwriting on the wall says.....

Dean has a great chance at the nomination....
lousy chance of winning....

this theory is not made up, but based on facts...

Voters do want to feel safe.....and that's not what Dean is offering.

Do tell! Believe me, many of us are most anxious for these facts that are behind the opinion you share so generously! Why not just share the facts they're drawn from? Much more convincing to those of us who don't hate Dean.

Thanks in advance!

Julie

[quinnox]

8. It's a close race

It will go down to the wire, barring any major blunders by Dean (which could happen).

Although I like Gep, even if he loses there is interesting scenario that Edwards is helped by this possibility, speaking as an Edwards fan too.

[slinkerwink]

10. it's possible that Edwards will survive after getting a 3rd in IA

but political wisdom would say it's better to back the frontrunner if he wins both IA and NH, and comes in a close third in SC, and wins another bunch of primaries.

[NashVegas]

17. Edwards Fundraising

Don't know about the other Southern states and areas, but Edwards has raised far more money among the well-heeled in Middle Tennessee, according to a search I made on Open Secrets. Lotsa 2k donations among Nashville's wealthier zip codes.

[slinkerwink]

18. and Ashton Kutcher's helping him

;-) Why not? They both have good hair and a very youthful look...

[Arugula Latte]

35. Well, at least Demi

has cashed in her old, bald Repub for a young, hirsute Democrat. I'd say she made an excellent trade! :7

[Closer]

12. Word is, too, that

Gephardt has only raised around 750k this quarter, compared to probably 10 million that Dean has raised. This will be devastating to Gephardt. Dean will be able to just annihilate Gephardt in spending in the last couple of weeks in Iowa.

[slinkerwink]

13. good for him!

We need someone that's willing to duke it out and not to namby-pamby around stuff like Gore did.

[slinkerwink]

16. :kick:

[Adjoran]

20. Media coverage of the winner

will help his momentum, without doubt.

But this is not a typical year. There won't be the gap of several weeks between NH and the next primaries that usually helps the early winners. Several more states vote on Feb 3, and the whole schedule has been compressed.

Therefore, other candidates will have a chance to even the race up by winning one or more of the subsequent primaries. Clark is a prime example: by his late start, he really has no practical chance to establish an organization in IO and NH in time to compete, but is doing well in the following early states.

Gephardt needs Iowa, but he also has a huge lead in Missouri, which also votes Feb 3. Kerry, Lieberman, and Edwards have to look to win somewhere in those early states to remain viable.

Dean is the frontrunner, and a win in Iowa would be a big boost, since it could put him 2-0 in the first two contests. But in the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "It ain't over, 'til it's over!"

[phirili]

22. You have the power to control yourself

[RevolutionStartsNow]

24. Go Howard!

Love that picture! This is the photo that Drudge amusingly posted along with this article. He also used this goofy one of Gep, in case anyone missed it. What message do you think Matt Drudge is subtly trying to push? LOL.

[ozone_man]

27. He looks lifeless compared to Dean.

Maybe Slinkerwink's title needs to be changed to "Dean fends off living dead Gephardt in Iowa"?

[slinkerwink]

30. lol!

ha, that's funny.

[janx]

29. Yep. Drudge has been coming after Dean lately.

But so have a lot of the other right-wing publications.

[jpgray]

25. As others say, Dean can survive Iowa, but Gep may not (nt)

[Adjoran]

31. But the race will not be over after Iowa & NH

As was stated earlier, there is little correlation in winning Iowa in particular and securing the nomination.

Carter won in 1976, but his win was a surprise to the media and pundits, and gave him a strong surge of publicity that carried over to NH. Without a clear alternative, he rolled from then on.

In 1984, Mondale took Iowa but lost NH to Hart. The nomination was decided in the later primaries.

In 1988, Gephardt won Iowa and Dukakis took NH, his neighboring state. Again, the nomination was decided more by the failure of Gore and Gephardt to mount a challenge in the Super Tuesday round of primaries.

In 1992, favorite son Harkin won Iowa, and good neighbor Tsongas took NH, but Clinton won Super Tuesday convincingly and couldn't be stopped.

In competitive years, it is clear that Iowa and New Hampshire have influence beyond their size, but have no real history of determining the nominee. They are far more likely to sink a candidate than to crown one.

[slinkerwink]

32. yes, but Dean's leading in most state polls....

so I think it's safe to say at this point (although it might change) that Dean will win a lot of states in Super Tuesday.

[slinkerwink]

34. :kick: