Howard Dean- How is it possible to win the election?

[Dob Bole]

Personally, I see the greatest electoral advantage for the Democrats in some combination of Gephardt and Edwards/Clark. So I will pose this question to Dean Enthusiasts: Given that the Census benefited Republicans and it will be harder to win, what extra states will Dean carry that we didn't last time.

[La_Serpiente]

1. If Clark was the nominee,

I don't think he should be with Gephardt. However, I can see him with either Edwards or Grahm.

[quinnox]

2. Dean would have the most difficult road

to win vs Dumbya. I agree that Gephardt as perhaps v.p. with Clark at the head of the ticket might be the best bet.

[Eroshan]

3. Ticket should be

Dean/ Edwards or Dean/ Clark and yes it can win.

[onecitizen]

4. It's too early to tell..........

in my home state(WV) I think he has a chance. We went for bush last time. And I think a lot of people regret that today. One thing's for sure though, the guys will not give up their guns.

[blm]

9. What Democrat is taking their guns away?

That's a GOP generated lie. Why accept it? Fight it with the truth.

[onecitizen]

24. Well, it's not like we haven't tried..........

but believe it or not, a lot of the guys here were convinced that Al Gore was going to go door to door and confiscate their guns. And yes I realize that was a GOP mission and it worked here. Once they are convinced of something it's really hard to get them to change their minds. But we are trying.

[Code_Name_D]

28. It wasn't just the GOP making that claim.

There were plenty of democrats repeating it as well. Most noteably, the "pro-gun" dems who were running in their own vary conservative districts.

[markus]

5. We just need to win the same states

including Flordia, just like last time.

Which states do you suggest Dean would lose that we got last time?

I think third party defections of potential Dem voters is a much greater concern, and Lieberman, Edwards and Clark would all exacerbate that problem.

[JNelson6563]

6. I don't understand your reasoning

What advantage would Gephardt or Clark have over Dean because of the gerrymandering?

Dean has a huge grass-roots support built.

What I don't understand is this: How would any candidate who cannot beat Howard Dean stand a chance against Team Bush?

Julie

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

35. Yah-up.

As I've said before:

"If the elected Dem is unelectable, what does that make the unelected Dems?"

[dsc]

7. Dean would have a realistic shot at all of the following

Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He needs either one of the first two or two of the last three.

[loyalsister]

12. Missouri, too

Guns are a big issue here. STL and KC could easily go Dem and he could pick up rural voters with his position on guns.

[HFishbine]

31. Actually

NV and NH would result in a 269 269 tie. Electoral college elctors have been re-allocated based on the latest census. Play with this map here for different scenarios:

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

[ferg]

8. AZ, NH, WV

Based both on Dean's gun stance and his "plain talking".

The fact that Dean's a rural governor makes things interesting across the country, too.

I don't see what advantage Gephardt or Edwards would have, unless you use a simplistic home state analysis.

[Don_G]

10. I Wouldn't Mind Seeing Dean/Rockefeller

Plenty of experience, diplomacy and acceptable to a very wide range of the voters.

[gristy]

11. huh?

Given that the Census benefited Republicans

[Bucky]

26. "Census benefited Republicans"

IT's a common meme. The "red states" grew at a faster rate than the "blue states", so supposedly the Republicans are the future. Something like that.

The authors of the "emerging Democratic majority" insist that in actual numbers, the the demographically inclined Democratic voters increased more than the demographically inclined Republican voters, so Democrats are the future.

Of course that just assumes that after a generation of hard-working prosperity, all those voters are going to stay Democrats. Neither analysis is a given.

Ten years from now we're going to start hearing about the "browning of the Republican Party" and people are going to point to Bobby Jindal and JC Watts as the trend setters. The all-white Republican party will be as big an anachronism as the all-Democratic south.

Typically, the Republicans jiggle and twist the numbers to make themselves look better, while the Democrats look at all those minorities and just take them for granted.

The future of hte 50-50 nation will be whoever delivers the best campaign, reaches the forgotten moderates, and turns out the most voters.

[HFishbine]

32. Effects of Census

I think the point is that the census resulted in more electoral votes going to states that were won by Bush last time and a few were taken from Gore states:

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

[Scott Lee]

34. Voter turnout benefits Democrats

That is a time honored fact.

What are you going to do about it?

[Melinda]

13. Dean CAN win -- electoral analysis by Republican pollsters:

Howard Dean has many qualities that make him a strong candidate, but the best way to judge his ability to win is simply to do the math. Below is a list of states we believe Howard Dean could win. We have broken them down into three columns. The first column is basically the Democrat base. The second column consists of Democrat leaners/swing states. The third column is Republican leaning states where Democrats have won in the recent past and could do so again.

<graph here>

As you see, Dean can win even without Florida. Furthermore, of the 23 states that make up these 270 electoral votes, Bush only won two in 2002, squeaking by in Nevada but only getting 49.5% of the total vote, and winning West Virginia with 51.9%. With no significant opposition to Harry Reid in the Senate race and the nuclear repository issue alive and kicking, Nevada is going to be tough for the President. And West Virginia is a very Democrat state, where Dean’s willingness to work with the NRA on gun owners’ rights will go a long way toward deflecting the “liberal” charge.



Today there are four states that we would put in the lean Republican column but these states -- Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio -- could go either way.

The remaining states give Bush a base of 206 electoral votes to start. Basically, it will be tough for any of the current candidates to wrest these states away from the President barring any catastrophic developments. Oh sure, if Wesley Clark is a Veep choice he might make Arkansas competitive, but overall, Bush will have a solid South through the Great Plains and Mountain States. So Bush starts with 206 and Dean starts with 183. Judge for yourself whether or not you think Dean could be formidable in the states above. Because as Al Gore learned in 2000, the popular vote doesn’t elect the President. The Electoral College does, and when you do the math, a Dean candidacy is a lot more realistic than people think.

http://www.moore-info.com/Poll_Updates/2004%20Election%20%20Why%20Dean%20can%20win%20Sept%2003.htm

[Vikingking66]

19. interesting memo

"The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but he will not appear threatening to folks in the middle. More than any other candidate in the field, he will be able to present himself as one who cares about people (doctor), who balances budgets (governor), and who appears well grounded while looking presidential. To be sure, he doesn’t look that way to the GOP base, but that has no bearing on the election, because they will never vote for him anyway. He can appeal to the middle and Republicans can ignore his candidacy at our peril. We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover.
---this thesis is basically what we Deaniacs have been saying pretty much since the beginning of this campaign.
Howard Dean’s appeal is closer to Ronald Reagan’s than any other Democrat running today. Granted, that’s not saying much with this field, but there are similarities here. The Democrat party used to chuckle about Reagan and his gaffes which they believed would marginalize him to the far right dustbin of history. But when his opponents tried to attack him for some of his more outlandish statements, the folks in the middle simply ignored them. Voters in the middle looked to the bigger picture where they saw a man of conviction who cared about them and had solutions for their problems. Howard Dean has the potential to offer a similar type candidacy.
----I'd say Harry Truman, not Reagan. But coming from a Republican this is probably some sick kind of compliment.

Furthermore, the “far-left liberal” charge which Republicans have used effectively in the past to define Democrats has much less impact today than it used to. The problem here is that the GOP spent years warning America about the ills of a left-wing liberal Clinton presidency and how it would destroy the economy, ruin our children, and leave America a twisted wreck. Well, we survived and the economy actually did well during much of the Clinton years. America didn’t have a problem with Bill Clinton being a far-left liberal, they had a problem with his inability to tell the truth and his total lack of morals.
--- OH HO! The Republicans admit they failed and the U.S had no problem with liberalism! interesting...

Certainly Dean has made some gaffes and needs a little more seasoning before the general election. But the only people paying attention right now are the diehards on the left and the right. The voters who will actually determine the outcome of the Presidential race are currently checked out. They couldn’t pick Howard Dean out of a police lineup. And you can be sure that when they do begin to pay attention they won’t be searching back issues of the Hotline or the National Journal to research the guy. That’s insider stuff that is totally lost on the great majority of voters in America.
------So true, but the question is the extent to which Bush will be able to use this stuff. A lot of it would be difficult for him to use, considering the Republican stance on those issues.

...Ironically, if he does get the nomination, Howard Dean’s biggest problem will be Bill and Hillary’s attempts to subvert his candidacy. They simply cannot afford to have another Democrat in the White House, in short, if Howard Dean is elected President, Hillary never will be. So, the Clinton’s will do whatever they must to make sure that doesn’t happen. So maybe Dean can’t win after all. But that’s another memo."
-------God, the Clintons thing among Republicans is truly bizarre. I'd say Democrats hate Bush, but I don't think we would see him as so Machiavellian as to sabotage his own party.

[Scott Lee]

14. AZ, NM and possibly a Southern state or two

Now the question arising in my head as of late, considering the antiDean backlash from the Democratic establishment types, is "what traditional Democratic states will be LOST because they can't stomach Dean"?

I havent seen anyone address that question yet.

[ferg]

17. keeping the Gore states

I can't think of any.

I'd think the main ones to be worried about would be Pennsylvania and New Mexico, but the same reasons I think Dean would be strong in the West should help make those two more solid.

And Dean's certainly solidified the green-leaning states like Oregon, Wisconson, Washington, and Minnesota, so he wouldn't need to spend as much time on them as Gore did.

[Scott Lee]

22. That was heartening

Judging from the surprising amount of anti-Dean vitriol on DU, I was beginning to wonder if this would translate to the possibility of Dean rejection in traditional Dem voter bases.

Thanks for assuaging some of those fears.

[Orangepeel]

15. Ohio

n/t

[MasonJar]

16. Too Northeastern

The Dean/Rockefeller ticket while great for the country would be too regional, in my view. Edwards or Clark or Graham need to be on the ticket. Rockefeller could join one of them, as could Clark or Dean. I just want to win. I want someone who can save this country. I do not believe in its ideals as set forth by Stump. He has to go or we are going the way of the Roman Empire and deserve to do so.

[Rose Siding]

18. WV Rockefeller

Jesse Jackson Jr's name has been floated recently and I like him, too. Jay's good, and Richardson, Landreau and Clark all have strong pluses

[Code_Name_D]

20. It is the centrists who can not win.

The core argument of the centrist strategy is to discover and appeal to existing demographics. The latest demographic is of course the NASCAR dad. I am not sure what a NASCAR dad is, but it strikes me as nothing more than the male equivalent to the soccer mom, supposable the mothers who take their children to a long schedule of events & practices. Through the use of focus groups, the Dems try to learn about their political opinions, then taller the party platform to appeal to that opinion.

The problem however is that the Dems must go out and "find" their base. Like scavengers. They reject liberals and progressives because they fear they would chase away these undiscovered demographics, believing that liberals and progressives are two few in number to win. And there is some truth to this.

However, the centrist strategy fails to consider one alternative. The power of education, and the ability & possibility of affecting and changing the mind of the people. That through education, we have the power to latterly create our own demographics that would support us, and work to further the parties interest. It also fails to consider that loyalty of the voters must be erred by elected representatives also being loyal TOO the voters.

Let me paint it another way. Let me argue that the Republicans believe the world is flat, like a disk. Which we all know to be false. The Dem centrists, knowing that the world is not flat and trying to win elections, goes out and searches for its "center." They find a few scientist believe the world is round, but most folks believe in another view point of the universe, that the world is the back of a turtle, or the back of an elephant, or that the world is nothing more than a dream on the dreamers eye lid. But obviously they can only pick one democratic. The problem is that the Dem's adopted world view is no more correct that the Republican's world view. In fact the Dems world view is still weaker because the Dems adopt it through conveyance, and do not have the emotional conviction. The Centrist argues that the whole point of the campaign is to "win elections" forgetting the fact that the whole point of American politics itself is to serve the interests of the people.

The centrist strategy worked for about 8 years under Clinton. The problem however is while the centrist argues that we must "find" the demographics that will support us. The Republicans however, are busy building a real power base. They work to "convert" people to their political philosophy, then manipulate them to stay in power. They redraw districts to force out dems and hand seats to there own. They have taken over the media, refuse to permit damaging investigations and operate in secret. The Repugs even tell their supporters to "bread" and increase there numbers through "pro-family" arguments. Of the "supper pregnancies" where the mother gives birth to 4 or more (Wichita has two couples with sextuplets) you will discover that they are extreme conservatives. Mean while, the Dems, in order to avoid being painted as "partisan" will suffer numerous restrictions on even there legitimate authority. Recent changes made to the rules of the house and senate have all but physically evicted the Dems from the chambers. Zero political power remains within congress, the courts, and the press core. Even is the Dems could find a superior demographic, the Repugs hold all the switches to real political power.

But there is an alternative. Dean's resent "flap" with the confederate flag is in fact the vary means to the Democratic resurgence. The flap itself was born from the traditional demographic world view, seeing the confederate flag as a "code word" for racism. But this is only technically true, and failing to realize that we do have the right to try and change minds.

Dean's real comments touched on the truth of the mater. Be one a racists or otherwise is irrelevant, but the fact that they are watching there schools being closed, and their jobs going away is however, at the heart of the matter. Indeed, these real economic difficulties tend to give rise to racial strife as the races begin to compete for an increasing scarcity of recourses. Meet the needs of the people, and there is a good chance that much of the racial tensions shall ebb.

And if Dean continues to speak the truth about maters of such relevance, he would have the power to educate people about the reality of their fate. Regardless of there demographics. As math is the universal language, so to is the truth the universal demographic. And by pressing for the needs of the people, one begins to earn their loyalty.

[Scott Lee]

23. Agree, if for no other reason than the divisiveness of the present

If ever I have witnessed a time in my life that fence sitters are not welcome, it's this one.

[Code_Name_D]

27. But ironically, fence sitters are hard to find.

The Bush administrations partisan, and increasingly fascist behavior make its harder to be neutral, harder to stay on the fence. The problem is that the centrist insists on sharing the same side of the fence as the Republicans, and not even giving the other side an option to vote for.

My first unlikely law is; zero supply generates zero demand. Where as the Dems refuse to provide a true alternative to the Republicans agenda, there shall be no data to arise to argue against there position. Centrists insist that another McGovvern can not win, but how would they know if they refuse to let McGovvern even compeat in the elections.

[jeter]

21. The West

He'll do well out there. Remember that combined with Nader's votes - Gore would have carried many western states.

AZ and NV to start with.

Also, don't underestimate his power to appeal to people based on a) he's an outsider and b) his straight talking nature.

[jeter]

25. Can't the same be said of anyone?

Is it a bad thing that someone comes from a state that was carried by Gore?

I mean does this disqualify Kerry and Lieberman?

As for Gepthardt, he's behind in the polls in Missouri against Bush. He is only a Congressman after all. He represents a Democratic constituency.

Clark has never run for anything, so it's hard to test how electable he is other than people's word for it.

[quaker bill]

29. By getting your people out to vote.

It is always just that simple. Dean seems most capable of the candidates in the race so far to rally grassroots support. He also has the two largest unions backing him (lots of foot soldiers). In the end analysis, given we can get the votes counted fairly (a big given), then the person who can get people mobilized and out to the polls wins. Many states were decided by margins small enough to be easily changed by turn out.

Dean's concept of rounding up 2 million volunteers (and now contributors) is the way to get there. If he doesn't do this, someone else needs to.

If you want to do the electoral math check out the interactive map in John Edwards site.

[HFishbine]

30. Not a prediction

but a strategy. Hold all the Gore states and pick up OH, MO, or FL.

Here's an interactive map, courtesy of John Edwards that lets you play with various scenarios:

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

[Karenina]

33. Whoever controls the voting machines

"WINS."