Latest ABC/Wash Post Poll: Kerry does best up against Bush, Dean worst

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.washingtonpost.com//wp-srv/politics/polls/vault/stories/data110103.html


9. How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (Wesley Clark, the Democrat), for whom would you vote?


Net Leaned Vote: Bush 51 Clark 40

Other Neither Would No
Bush Clark (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin.
10/29/03 All 51 40 1 3 1 4
RV 52 40 * 4 1 3


10. (ASKED OF HALF SAMPLE) How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (Joseph Lieberman, the Democrat), for whom would you vote?


Net Leaned Vote: Bush 53 Lieberman 40

Other Neither Would No
Bush Lieberman (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin.
10/29/03 All 53 40 * 4 1 1
RV 56 38 * 3 1 1
9/13/03 54 40 * 3 2 2
4/30/03 61 34 * 2 1 2


11. (ASKED OF HALF SAMPLE) How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (John Kerry, the Democrat), for whom would you vote?


Net Leaned Vote: Bush 50 Kerry 44


Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin.
10/29/03 All 50 44 * 2 1 3
RV 52 43 0 2 1 2
9/13/03 54 39 * 3 2 2
4/30/03 60 34 * 2 1 2


12. (ASKED OF HALF SAMPLE) How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (Richard Gephardt, the Democrat), for whom would you vote?


Net Leaned Vote: Bush 51 Gephardt 42

Other Neither Would No
Bush Gephardt (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin.
10/29/03 All 51 42 * 3 1 2
RV 51 42 * 4 1 1
9/13/03 54 39 * 3 2 2
4/30/03 60 35 * 2 1 2


13. (ASKED OF HALF SAMPLE) How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (Howard Dean, the Democrat), for whom would you vote?


Net Leaned Vote: Bush 54 Dean 39

Other Neither Would No
Bush Dean (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin.
10/29/03 All 54 39 1 3 1 2
RV 53 39 * 3 1 3
9/13/03 56 36 1 3 2 2

[AWD]

1. Yet another misleading headline from a Dean-hater

Worst you say?

Gee, I didn't know that 4 candidates had dropped out.

Another horseshit Dean bash......

[flpoljunkie]

2. Check the link. These were the only candidates they polled about.

Take your complaint up with ABC News and the Washington Post, rather than attacking the messenger.

[AWD]

8. Gosh, I did read the link...

....and nowhere does it say anything about Dean being "worst:

Gee, could that have been YOUR bias that put those words in YOUR headline??

Yes, I think it was.

...and funny thing about this poll....there was a part YOU left out. This part, to be precise.....THE PART THAT SHOWS DEAN LEADING!!!!!!

998 (and 999). (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) If the 2004 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Joseph Lieberman, Richard Gephardt, John Kerry, John Edwards, Al Sharpton, Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley Braun, or Wesley Clark), for whom would you vote?


------------Lieb.-Gep.-Ker.-Ed.-Dean-Clark-Shar.-Braun-Kuc.-Oth.
10/29/03 All-13---13-----8---5---16---12-----7-----5----2----1
---------RV--13---14-----8---5---17---14-----7-----3----2----*

[madfloridian]

13. Ah, yes, I was just going to post that. Beat me to it.

Just left out a few parts, huh?

:hi:

[flpoljunkie]

20. These head-to-head matchups polled from across political spectrum...

not just Democrats, and Dem-leaning independents.

"The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll is based on telephone interviews with 1,003 randomly selected adults nationwide, and was conducted Oct. 26-29, 2003. The project included an additional oversample of 204 self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning political independents. Items noted as "asked of leaned Democrats" are thus based on a combined N of 642.

The margin of sampling error for overall results is plus or minus 3 percentage points, and plus or minus 4 percentage points for results based on the Democratic subsample."

[flpoljunkie]

29. This kind of name-calling and vitriol will get you nowhere...

I and others, however, think that Dean is an arrogant, divisive candidate. An increasing number of those in the Democratic party also fear that if he is the nominee, he will take the Democratic party down with him. That is also my fear.

[quinnox]

3. Good news!

This is the second time I have seen Kerry faring best against Bush in a major poll.

Kerry would be one of the best candidates to go mano on mano vs. Bush

[tsipple]

4. I've Got a Dukakis Poll I Could Show You

That one was three months before the general election, and that particular Massachusetts liberal running against another Bush was up 17 points -- well outside the margin of error.

I remember fondly President Dukakis's administration.

[quinnox]

5. What does that have to do with this poll?

n/t

[tsipple]

9. Everything

If your best case for your candidate is that he got the favorable random number within the margin of error 12 months out from the general election... Well, that ain't much to hang your hat on, is it?

There is absolutely no meaning to be divined from these polls right now (except perhaps that Al Sharpton has trouble and that MOEs are reported for a reason). Clark, Dean, and Kerry have all been the point leaders (within the MOE) in these polls at one time or another. I think even Lieberman "won" one.

And every time I point out the obvious. So I'm doing it again.

Oh, one more thing I see in this poll: every Democrat loses to Bush. Now I assume you'd say that the polls will change. And you'd be right.

My Dukakis comment points out the absurdity of looking at these polls. You had every political expert on the planet predicting a Dukakis win in August, 1988. (That's not November, 1987. It was three months before the election.)

Take a look at the recent Badger Poll if you don't believe me. They couldn't get more than 30% of Wisconsin voters to say whether they had a favorable opinion of any Democrat. (And that was Lieberman's number.) The vast majority had "no opinion." (Kerry was around 25%, by the way.) Do you think any useful numbers are going to result from that kind of fog? NOBODY is paying attention yet, except maybe Iowa and New Hampshire voters.

[quinnox]

18. Your opinion

If I was a Dean supporter, I would be concerned about these polls that form a pattern, namely that Dean is almost always on the bottom when going head to head vs. Bush.

[AWD]

6. Yeah! Kerry is Dukakis!

....and since national polls always decide primary winners, Kerry is King!

[AP]

11. The point is that RELATIVE TO OTHER DEMS, Kerry does best, Dean does worst

Dukakis may have been up by 17 points, but I bet the other DEMS which he did better than vs Bush wouldn't have been up 17 pts, and, therefore, Bush would have had an even easier time closing the gap.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Given The Fact That The Seventeen Point

Lead evaporated in the manner that it did and in the short time that it did I treat it as an artifact....

That lead was gone after the Republican convention, even with the Quayle debacle...

[AP]

15. Again, the point is, are we supporting the best available Democrat to run

against Bush?

The fact that Dean finishes at or near the bottom in all these polls vs Bush is the reason the RW wants Dean so badly.

[tsipple]

17. OK, So Why Do People Paying Attention...

...in New Hampshire seem to prefer Dean and not prefer Kerry? Something to do with the quality of his campaign?

Take this polling "data" to New Hampshire and make your argument. Good luck.

[AP]

22. With 10 people running, the person leading the other 9 candidates might

be someone who cant' get any more votes vs Bush than the votes they get against the other 9 Dems. Ie, Dean might be seeing 90% of his total support among all voters willing to show up at the polls to vote for him in the 27% of people who support him in the primaries.

[blm]

24. Like John Glenn's numbers beating Reagan in 84, but, Mondale

had the better primary numbers. Go figure. I love Mondale, but, Dems made a big mistake not selecting John Glenn, which would have spared this nation from 8 more years of Republican rule.

[AP]

26. I wonder if Republicans interfered in the primary to sabotage Glen and

help Mondale.

[tsipple]

27. Uh, No

Jesus Christ would not have defeated Ronald Reagan in 1984. And John Glenn, bless his heart, was a lousy presidential campaigner.

However, Walter Mondale was the Washington insider (DNC) choice in that campaign. (No, Republicans did nothing to help Mondale get the nomination. The Democratic establishment in Washington was gung-ho about Mondale.)

[blm]

28. Doesn't change the fact that Glenn had the better numbers...and the

name recognition and the FORTITUDE to go up against Reagan. Like it or not, military experience and heroic pasts make the country FEEL safer psychologically.

[AP]

30. Incidentally, when Reagan could barely remember his name in 2000

John Glenn was flying in space on the Space Shuttle (was that 2000? 1999?).

Isn't that an interesting contrast?

[tsipple]

31. Other Than Trading Ohio for Minnesota...

I think we would have had the same landslide in 1984 for Reagan. And probably no female Vice President (to break down that barrier).

We'll just never know. Mondale was the nominee, and Glenn wasn't.

[madfloridian]

7. You left out the best part.

Net Leaned Vote:

Democratic Other Neither Would No
Bush nominee (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin.
10/29/03 All 48 47 1 1 1 2
RV 48 47 1 1 1 2
10/13/03 All 46 47 1 2 2 3
RV 44 49 1 2 1 3
9/13/03 49 44 1 2 2 2
8/11/03 48 40 2 1 1 7
4/30/03 53 40 * 2 1 3

You forgot to mention this great aspect of the poll, ANY Democrat against Bush. It is a great figure!

[DrFunkenstein]

10. These Are The Electability Polls

It is no surprise that Kerry as a natural advantage. Strong foreign policy experience, a 15 year veteran of the war on terror, strong on corporate accountability, an environmental record to die for, led the Iran-Contra, Noriega, BCCI, and POW-MIA investigations, strong on veteran's affairs, chairs the Small Business Committee, a real bridge builder and a damn fine liberal that comes off like a centrist.

Also a proven brawler when debating. Bush doesn't stand a chance.

[wyldwolf]

14. You're right, Dean does worse against Bush out of the top tier dems...

I call it like I see it. Out of Kerry, Clark, Gephardt, Lieberman, and Dean, Dean would lose to Bush by 15%! Kerry by only 6%.

Sound like the Dean does the worst to me!

[DrFunkenstein]

19. If We're Going To Lose, Let's Register A Protest Candidate

That doesn't exactly resonate with me. I believe that it will take about 2 weeks for Karl Rove to paint Dean as the lunatic fringe wing of the Democratic Party. Certainly Dean has provided plenty of ammunition for the $200 million in TV ads that would run against him. Want a preview?

http://www.gop.org/Newsroom/RNCResearch/TLvideo2.htm

Thank you very, very much.

[madfloridian]

16. Another part of the poll has Dean ahead.

998 (and 999). (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) If the 2004 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Joseph Lieberman, Richard Gephardt, John Kerry, John Edwards, Al Sharpton, Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley Braun, or Wesley Clark), for whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote:

Wldn't No
Lieb. Gep. Ker. Ed. Dean Clark Shar. Braun Kuc. Oth. None vote op.
10/29/03 All 13 13 8 5 16 12 7 5 2 1 7 2 11
RV 13 14 8 5 17 14 7 3 2 * 5 1 10

10/13/03 All 9 13 10 3 17 12 4 6 2 * 9 1 14
RV 10 14 11 3 16 13 4 6 2 * 9 1 12

9/13/03 All 22 14 14 3 14 6 5 4 2 5* 3 2 7
RV 21 14 14 3 15 6 5 4 2 3* 3 2 8

7/10/03 All 13 10 12 6 8 NA 6 4 2 5* 13 7 16

6/1/03 All 14 10 7 6 3 NA 2 1 1 41** 3 2 11

4/30/03 All 29 19 14 4 3 NA 3 6 2 4* 1 0 14
RV 30 20 14 3 3 NA 4 7 1 4* 2 0 13

1/20/03 All 27 14 10 11 3 NA 7 NA NA 1 4 0 24
7/15/02 All 10 5 6 3 1 NA NA NA NA 57*** *

[flpoljunkie]

21. Margin of error for this question of Dems/Dem leaners is +/-4%...

which basically bunches Dean, Lieberman, Gephardt, Clark and Kerry within margin of error.

Do you really think Lieberman, with 13% ,willl win the Democratic nomination; this is basically name recognition with Democrats and Dean is benefitting from all the corporate media attention. Clark has also received a greal deal of media attention since he entered the race.

We are political junkies; most of the Democrats are paying very little attention to the race for the nomination, which is very sad, indeed.

[AP]

25. With 9 or 10 candidates, this tells you who does best when all candidates

are in the race. It doesn't tell you who's going to do best against bush when it's down to two people.

Dean covers a lot of territorry that only he covers -- which is basically the perception that he's anti-war and hates Bush the most.

There's way more percieved overlap between the remaining candidates (other than Sharpton/Kucinich) and Mosley-Braun gets some support just becuase she's a woman.

If you reduced the field down to four or five, and there were fewer candidates covering a broader range of the political left spectrum, you might find that Dean comes in second or third.

[Room101]

23. We are a year away, my friends don't even know who is running

Joe and Jane public don't get involved until someone wins the Democratic nomination. This is what they were saying back in 1991

[Woodstock]

32. Zogby had Dean doing better than Kerry

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=747

The fact is, there is still quite a bit of name recognition factoring in (evidenced by Lieberman's strong showing.)

Lots of people really haven't tuned into the race yet.

We have a good field and the frontrunners are gaining on Bush.

(Some of these silly threads give me the feeling we are all 12 again and on the playground at recess.)

[flpoljunkie]

33. No, he didn't. Please read Zogby poll more carefully. Kerry wins again!

The president would outpoll any of the current leading Democratic contenders if the election were held today.  He would earn 46% of the vote against retired General Wesley Clark’s 37%; would beat former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean, 47% - 39%; would poll 45% against Massachusetts Senator John Kerry’s 41%; would win over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt 47% - 38%, and would beat Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman, 46% - 38%

Bush beats Dean 47%-39% (8 point difference)

Bush beats Kerry 45%-41% (4 point difference)