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[BurtWorm]

1. How do you deal with the paradox that Kerry can't seem to beat Dean?

And I'm not asking this to be snide. But it follows that if Kerry has problems getting competetive with Dean, even in NH, then it DOESN'T follow that Kerry can then beat Bush.

[kiahzero]

10. Elections aren't transitive

You're arguing that P(x,y), P(y,z), therefore, P(x,z). However, elections don't have the transitive property. It's entirely possible for there to be a cyclical ambiguity: Bush beats Dean, Dean beats Kerry, Kerry beats Bush.

However, this case is much simpler: Bush isn't in the race, and the tactics to run against Dean are completely different from those to run against Kerry.

[BurtWorm]

20. Okay, but I'm still having trouble understanding this

aspect of the paradox. Dean apparently has the wherewithal to make Kerry seem irrelevant at best and undesirable at worst, not just to DUers but to all Democrats everywhere. Now add the rest of the electorate into the mix for a general election. You have the impacted core of Bushist voters who haven't budged one millimeter since 2000 (assuming the worst). This amounts to 45-48% of everyone who will vote in 2004. How is Kerry going to undo the damage Dean has done to him and capture the 48-50% of Dems and other voters he absolutely needs to beat Bush?

I would really like to see more fire from Kerry, because if you're right (which you very well could be), he's going to have to make a major impression sooner rather than later if he's going to win the nomination. How is he going to do that?

[DieboldMustDie]

35. Hmmm... it's like rock, paper, scissors.

;)

[ModerateMiddle]

55. Oh, this is just sooo true.

One of the reasons that Kerry is struggling to find his voice in these primaries is because he is running and has been from the beginning against Bush. He is running his general election campaign now. That's also why he does so well in the head to heads against Bush - even now.

Dean started running for the anti-war activist base and has been firing them up for months. But those positions aren't what will win a general election. That it might win the primary is disturbing, and I share Pete's fear.

[RetroLounge]

69. Uhm, yes, they are.

Kerry cannot beat Bush if he cannot beat Dean, because Dean wiull be the nominee and Kerry won't.

if A > B and B > C then A > C.

pretty straight forward...

[WilliamPitt]

11. Actually, that's pretty straightforward

Primary voters are the base of the party. Dean captured that base with his Iraq stance. 2 + 2 = 4.

[BurtWorm]

25. So how is Kerry going to capture that base, which he will need

away from Dean?

[MrPeepers]

15. It's not really a paradox.

Dean has recieved a lot of media attention, Kerry hasn't. Dean had a sudden spike in support, now he's starting to slip and Kerry is building up speed. Kerry campaigns are well known for their tendency to start out slow and build up as time goes on. I think it's too early to say that Kerry can't seem to beat Dean. Also of note, the Primaries are a very different animal from the General election. Dean is a moderate, this is true. The media, however, has painted him as a very liberal guy, and this is bringing a lot of left-wingers out of the woodwork. You're not seeing the moderates, the independents, in a primary vote. You're seeing the activists, and many of the activists support Dean for his simple Iraq is Wrong opinion. Not to mention that Kerry is polling best against Bush among the Democratic candidates.

Peepers

[pruner]

26. please post evidence supporting your assertion(s) that…

Dean is slipping and Kerry is building up speed.

this is the newest NH poll. if anything, it looks like Dean's support has solidified and Kerry is slipping.


Dean 31%
Kerry 19%
Clark 12%

Trailing with single-digit support were Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich. Al Sharpton and Carol Moseley Braun had less than 1 percent support.

Twenty-three percent of respondents were undecided about the Democratic primary.

The poll was done for the Concord Monitor by Research 2000, a Rockville, Md., company.

MOE ± 5

The new poll was conducted Oct. 16-Oct. 20 among residents who voted in the 2002 presidential election and who are likely to vote in the upcoming election.

http://www.projo.com/ap/ma/1066846550.htm

[MrPeepers]

98. Evidence supporting my assertion(s)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=694&e=1&u=/ap/20031020/ap_on_el_pr/new_hampshire_poll

Dean may be leading, but you can't just look at the numbers as they are now. You have to look at trends.

"Dean was favored by 25 percent while Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, was backed by 19 percent. Dean led 26 percent to 17 percent last month."

Dean down 1 point, Kerry up 2.

"n this poll, Kerry's favorable rating increased from 58 percent in late September to 66 percent in mid-October. Almost that many, 60 percent, viewed Dean favorably."

I think it speaks for itself.

Here's a different Poll, if you like.

http://www.suffolk.edu/opa/news/poll_deanleading.html

Peepers

[Woodstock]

155. Pete doesn't go in for evidence, just personal feelings

[Clovis Sangrail]

46. dupe

dupe

[whirlygigspin]

63. La Kick

[Clovis Sangrail]

47. apples and oranges

The winner of the primary is not neccessarily the person who would stand the best chance in the general.

I agree with the orignal poster that Dean is going to get hammered by the media, and I think that he needs to get significantly better at dealing with unscripted media appearances.

That said, I think the vigor of his supporters (provided it can be maintained) and his ability to harness anger at the current adminstration gives him the best chance in the general.

[Hippo_Tron]

122. Well the theory is that Dean's candidacy is just hype...

And that Kerry will be around once Dean's hype is gone... Not my opinion necesarilly but I'm just explaining.

[ulysses]

2. other than instinct,

why do you think Dean can't beat Bush?

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

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[ulysses]

18. ok

re: military credentials. I'd like to introduce you to Max Cleland. Military credentials are not a magic token, Vietnam vet (or four-star general) notwithstanding. As to foreign policy creds, a lot of swing voters in 2000 didn't seem to mind voting for a neophyte Texas governor. Maybe Dean could run with the same "I'll surround myself with people who have a clue" idea and have done with it.

re: the media. Well, sure. How is that going to hurt Dean and none of the other leading candidates?

[lastliberalintexas]

67. Thank you Uly

But be prepared- the response you will get is that everything has changed since 9/11. Now, voters will by God demand that someone have foreign policy experience. The economy? Oh, it means nothing. The fact that Iraq is a quagmire? Oh, that means nothing either. :eyes:


Pete, this is just your opinion. Just as some here are afraid that Kerry will lose to Shrub. That is not me, btw, even though I am a Dean supporter. I see that Dean, Kerry and Clark currently all poll within the margin of error against Shrub!

Also, the same attack machine that will define Dean as an anti-war liberal freak (when we all know he's not) will define Kerry as a Taxachusetts liberal a la Dukakis (when we all know he's not).

You play into their hands and by their script when you allow them to define the debate and the issues.

[AlinPA]

33. I worry about the "gay marriage" issue

Rove will turn the law in VT on civil unions into a "gay marriage" line and I'm sorry folks, the dirty bastard rPIGs and their 100s of millions will put this in front of the American public on cable TV and radio and they will swallow it and vote to "save the sacrament of marriage".

[ulysses]

36. know what, though?

Any Democrat currently running will face the same lineup on cable and radio. Any of them.

Farking Lieberman - bless his conservative soul - just voted against banning D&X abortions. Think that wouldn't come back via Rove in the general election?

[AlinPA]

40. By "lineup", you mean the $$?

or that they will all face the "gay marriage" issue?

[ulysses]

43. I mean the money, the smears,

the kit and kaboodle of what it means to have a right-wing corporate media in this country. No, only Dean will likely face anything like the "gay marriage" issue. The others will have some other "ultra liberal" stance or vote thrown at them. You can bet the bank on it.

Specific to Dean, I think he has the candor to deal with the issue forthrightly.

[AlinPA]

45. Right.

One thing he won't have to "beat around the bush" on it. He's honest on that issue.

[poskonig]

82. A: Mary Landrieu and Max Cleland

Their elections are unexplainable under the "you need be an unpolarizing figure with military credentials" theory.

1) Landrieu and Cleland were both in the south
2) the election was a lot closer to 911 than we are today
3) Landrieu ran to the base in the runoff and won
4) Cleland took the Daschle "Bushlite" strategy and lost, despite military credentials

This would show that Dean has the right idea by planning to mobilize the three mammoth growth groups of America-- minorities, professionals, and working women, which all lean Democratic. Kerry outright refuses the juice them up, despite his liberal credentials.

[KittyWampus]

106. Thought Cleland Lost To BBV- Which Is It Folks!

This is one of my pet peeves.

Many of the same people who insist that Cleland lost due to BBV on one thread... say that he lost due to DLC strategy in the next.

[poskonig]

119. I'm Jason Bowden, not "folks" and not "same people."

Therefore, you aren't going to find a contradiction, since I've never argued that Cleland lost due to BBV (black box voting, I'm guessing).

[CWebster]

105. Great

We should reinforce the worst aspects of nationalism. In other words, accept their interpretation of the framework by bolstering it rather than making issue of its failure.

[HFishbine]

132. Exactly

Since we're dwelling on opinions here, here's mine.

I repudiate the world-view Bush has manufactured. Give me the choice between a candidate who says he can operate better than Bush in the paridigm of fear and one whose message is of peace, hope and a return to sanity, and I'll take the second.

[janekat]

109. I worry about his potential to stick his foot in his mouth - he has a long

history of that. I also think that his "angry" persona - while it may be good for "riling" up the base - it will NOT play well to the general population at all.

And then - I agree with the conventional wisdom that because of the gay civil union thing - brave as it might be - it will be a killer in the general election. It's a pity because in my book - it's one of the few things that he's done that I agree with him on...

[wryter2000]

3. I hear you, Pete

But I can't agree that Kerry stands a better chance than Dean. If you feel that in your gut, well, I respect your gut. But I think that any of the top tier dems can beat Bush unless his numbers/economy/war get better. I think someone who's more of an outsider (Dean) has a good chance to pick up people who are disgusted with the whole mess in Washington.

Of course, if Kerry gets the nomination, I'm behind him 100%.

[cally]

4. I agree wholeheartedly

I also don't think Dean can win. I'm dismayed when I see him on the political shows. I think his lack of foreign policy experience and the skiing after the medical deferment will end up defeating him. I respect him, but I sure hope he doesn't get the Dem nomination.

[MODemocrat]

84. How can a ski trip possibly compare with AWOL/Deserter Bush?

If this is all the right wing can come up with, they are a pretty sorry mess. No one in this race knows less about foreign policy than president Bush does. :shrug:

[cally]

89. Oh, I agree

Bush's foreign policy is abysmal. I think the voters this time want someone with foreign policy experience. Chimpy plans to run on fear of terrorists. Thus, I think Dean will be vulnerable on this issue. I hope I'm wrong if he gets the nomination.

[pruner]

5. I think John Kerry looks too much like a Frenchman to beat Bush

I'm not bashing Kerry, that's just my opinion.

:eyes:

[rogerashton]

31. I think Bush looks more French than Kerry does.

Kerry looks Austrian.

[killbotfactory]

6. I think Dean has one of the best chances against Bush

I can feel it in my bones. That's why I support him so much.

[ozone_man]

170. I feel it too.

To me, he seems to have all of the right characteristics, but overall, he seems direct, personable and not afraid to attack Bush on his record. People are energized by this, and they know or will know by election time that the economy is in shambles and Bush failed.

[AWD]

Can't argue with that....

....well spoken. I still think that Dean can beat Bush too, butyou just laid forth your case in a wonderful fashion.

Thank you.

[denverbill]

7. If Clark became the frontrunner you'd feel the same way.

Same with Kerry, same with Gebhardt.

Whoever is leading the pack is going to be buried: right now by his fellow Democrats, later by the right-wing Scaife media and Republicans.

Don't let the Republicans pick your candidate for you based on fear of losing. Dean can make Bush look like a moron in a debate, and Dean has a fighting chance to match Bush in terms of advertising dollars.

[RummyTheDummy]

71. According to the latest polls in Iowa....

Dean isn't the front runner either. I understand he's the overwhelming frontrunner on this board, but he's not the front runner among the moron masses aka the real world.

[HFishbine]

133. Source Please

Hey, it's not just DU. 60 Minutes, last night, presented Dean as the front runner.

As for Iowa:

Gephardt: 22
Dean: 21
Kerry: 9
Edwards: 7
Clark: 7
Lieberman: 5
Kucinich: 1
Mosley Braun: 0.5
Sharpton: 0.4

MOE: +/- 4.5%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=748

[pmbryant]

8. I don't understand why some people think Dean can't beat Bush

I think all of the major Dem candidates can beat Bush. All of them.

--Peter

[Cha]

12. This is NOthing new...I know Dean "scares" you!

:scared: :scared: :scared:

bush is going to lose in 2004 and whomever the Dem candidate is ..is going to be President! That's what I feel in my Bones! So I want the best candidate for our Country! :kick:

[RummyTheDummy]

72. Yes Dean does scare me.....

He scares me into thinking if he wins the nomination we'll be handed a 49 state ass whipping.

[Woodstock]

159. yep, nothing new here

hmmm, what if we all started a thread every day about our feelings about Kerry every time the mood hit

[VolcanoJen]

13. Pete, thank you so much for opening up.

I never knew these things about you. I also feel a deep-seeded love of America, and I'm sympathetic to your uneasy feelings about Howard Dean's ability to beat Bush.

Unfortunately, when we choose candidates, we are sometimes put in positions that force us to back a perceived "winner" instead of a candidate who matches our "grocery list" of what we look for. I can fully understand your sentiment, and remain undecided myself, although leaning more heavily Clark (who has all but replaced Kerry on my short list) by the day.

I'm not about to rule out Dean nor his ability to win in '04 though. I need to hear more, and I need to be convinced by more than his impressive ability to seize the power of the internet. I'm also interested in what your gut is telling you about Dean's inability to defeat Bush; I can't even seem to put it into words myself.

Thanks again, so much, for telling us more about your life.

:-)
Jennifer

[LearnedHand]

19. Jen and Pete:

Thank you both for posting these things. Pete, I feel the same about Dean, also: fear that he can't beat Bush*. I don't know about Kerry; I haven't settled on a candidate, yet.

However, just yesterday I was imagining the televised debates between Bush* and Dean, and you know what I imagined? Dean imploding on national television, right in front of the entire nation. I fear he'll lose his cool when what he needs to do is rip Bush* a new asshole!

Them's my fears. Hope I'm wrong. Gawd, I hope I'm wrong.

[VolcanoJen]

24. Well, I really don't fear a Bush-Dean debate.

In fact, I'd pay good money (provided it was donated to the Democratic Party) for a front-row seat to that exchange.

Any of the Dem candidates, but Dean, Kerry, Edwards and Clark in particular, could hand Bush his ass in front of a national audience come debate time, in my opinion. I don't think Dean would implode at all... against Bush? They wish, but Bush will be the one sinking under the crushing weight of defending his own deceitful policies come next fall.

[janekat]

110. Remember THAT'S what we said about Gore debating Bush

I still think that Gore slaughtered him in all 3 debates - but what's apparently important is who wins the "spin" war. If the media claims that Bush won - then he won in the minds of most people.

[dsc]

38. He has run for office

not once, not twice, not three times, not four times, not five times, not six times, but seven times (once for VT House, twice for VT lite gov., and four times for gov.) yet I haven't seen, nor heard tell of, Dean losing his temper in a debate. It should also be noted that Dean has been in several debates so far running for President. So just what evidence do you have for your theory?

[janekat]

113. Vermontian: "the shoot-first, apologize-later pattern has been prevalent"

http://www.tothebarricades.com/MT/MT/mt-comments.cgi?entry_id=536

WASHINGTON -- Howard Dean's fire-breathing campaign rhetoric has inspired some party activists, but the inaccuracy of some remarks, as well as his characterizations of some rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, has prompted him to issue several apologies this year.

.....Garrison Nelson, a University of Vermont political science professor who has watched Dean over two decades, said the shoot-first, apologize-later pattern has been prevalent throughout the former governor's political career.

''Howard's a pop-off. I've been the target of his pop-offs, too,'' Nelson said. ''He is a loner who keeps his own counsel. He also has a very short fuse.''

The professor linked the behavior to Dean's history as a doctor.

''That may seem like a non sequitur, but doctors do not get challenged. They live in the rarefied profession where they are not challenged. Lawyers get challenged. Professors get challenged. But Howard pops off when he gets challenged,'' Nelson said. ''At some point you run out of apologies.''

[gully]

44. As Dean pointed out he hasn't imploded at a debate in 11 years

of doing them so? I think were safe... ;)

[JaneQPublic]

14. I know how you feel.

Because I feel pretty much the same way... only about Kerry.

I just can't see the guy "connecting" with people in the midwest or the south, let alone "catching fire" the way Dean did this past summer.

On paper, he's great, but in person, he's too stiff, stodgy, and his speeches are a crashing bore.

Plus, there's that whole mess with throwing "someone's" medals over the White House wall, marrying a Republican heiress, and the stink the Repukes will raise about him protesting Vietnam while soldiers were still in the field fighting, not to mention him being Dukakis Jr., and supposedly flip-flopping on Iraq.

No, he's too much of a risk of being Gored.

[Woodstock]

162. Jane Q - Kerry at risk of being Gored - PRICELESS!

:) Never heard that before, but that's it in a nutshell. If they had a field day with Gore as being stiff and remote and ivory tower, they'd have a tournament with Kerry. He runs the gamut of emotions from A to B.

[ScreamingMeemie]

16. Go and listen to him speak. I was able to do this this past weekend,

He is a man strong in his convictions-even though I don't agree with them all. Kerry has never seemed to play a straight game with me. I cannot get past what I perceive to be his own half truths and out and out lies to his constituents. As for the rah rah patriotism, don't be sold on what the media tells us is going on right now.

Thanks for sharing your opinion in an easygoing way. :)

[veganwitch]

17. not asbestos!!!

that stuff is bad bad bad for you. without going into too much detail its an integral part of my work.

but hands you a fire extinguisher.

back on topic. there are reasons your gut tells you something, and you just have to go with it.

my gut tells me that dean is not sincere so i would have a hard time voting for him. my gut tells me that even were he in office, the major problems of this country, that were exacerbated by Shrubco, still will not be solved.

my gut tells me that his presidency would bring reform when what we need is change. this country is on a one way track to no where, getting a new car isnt going to fix that.

edit: when i started typing this i was the only one here!!!! wow. fast reaction!!!

[farmbo]

21. We Democrats were high fivin' in 1980 when Reagan won the GOP...

...nomination. He too was viewed as an easy pushover for the incumbent, owing to his seemingly out-of-the-mainstream views.

We were wrong... there was a movement afoot and we (or at least the Dems in power) didn't realize it.

This year the shoe's on the other foot. Dean's historic inroads among independents and new voters on the internet and elsewhere suggests a tausami brewing against the incumbent...if he's challenged by an outsider with new ideas.

And Howard Dean has the smarts, charisma and organizational skills's and outsider credentials to do it.

[bearfartinthewoods]

48. do you have any data? polling of indies or anthing to prove

Dean is drawing them in historic numbers?

[farmbo]

118. His internet and fundraising numbers are historic...and he's bringing

...in the McCain Independents

http://www.deanindependents.org/archives/000093.html

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2003/09/07/dean_holds_strong_lead_over_kerry_in_nh_poll/

[Silverhair]

137. In 1980 the public wanted to fire Carter

Reagan was outside the mainstream, but the public was angry with Carter. Remember that inflation was in the high teens and unemployment was at 9+%. Americans were being held hostage in Iran and the rescue attempt was an overcomplicated blunderous operation. And then the Ayattolah Kohemhi (I misspelled both. sorry)warned the American public against electing Reagan. That was seen as an endorsement of Carter. All Reagan had to do was reassure the public that he wouldn't blow up the world and he would have been elected.

[qwertyMike]

22. The committed don't elect Presidents

The voters are (say) 35% Dems. 35% Repugs.
These people rarely change. It's the other 30% who elect the Prez.
The Sheeple, Great Unwashed, Undecided, call them what you want.

If you look at it that way you can see Bush's appeal, and I'd say he's STRONGER with that crowd than he was in 2000.
Don't mock the Aircraft carrier landing. Those things play well in middle earth. * is good at the common guy thing (God knows why) His dumbness may be an asset there..

So we have to look at a candidate who can appeal to that constituency.
Which of the 9? I really can't see any there who can beat Bush at this game.

[lovedems]

23. My toss up

is that Bushco. has taken us so far to the right, it is scary. Is Dean going to look good to the voters, being left of center or is he going to look bad because people are going to shy away from anything more than a centrist? I don't have my candidate yet but I feel good about all the front runners in the primary so far (maybe except for Gebhardt) I think, whoever the candidate is will stand a good shot at winning. That especially holds true if "things" continue to get worse for Chimpy! I hope!

[THUNDER HANDS]

27. I feel the same way you do

I'd have no problem with Dean as the nominee. Because I like the guy and all...

But Kerry just LOOKS like a president. I'd have a hard time imagining that the American people, if given the chance to see John Kerry side-by-side with Bush, would pick the idiot over the war hero.

Kerry has the height (6'4"), the deep, commanding baratone voice and the intelligence to wipe the floor with Bush.

And as for Dean. Well, whether he is or not, he's going to be labeled a flaming liberal and that's going to scare away people.

And for those who say "But, but, but, Dean has a 100% rating from the NRA!" Well, I bet so does Bush. And Bush never signed a civil unions bill into law.

So for ANY gun votes you might pick up you'll lose the homophobic vote.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

28. You are right becasue Dean polarizes

whereas Kerry does not.

[BurtWorm]

30. Unfortunately, Kerry polarizes Democrats

[blm]

49. no...the MoveOn poll showed him with second highest favorables

for presidential choices. Conason dissected that poll and said it looked great for Kerry.

[jab105]

29. In the Florida 2002 election for governor...

they said that Reno couldn't possibly beat Bush, so they encouraged everyone to vote for McBride, cause he could beat Bush (this is Jeb we are talking about here)...

So, I hold my breath, pinch my nose, and vote McBride...but in the debates, he was demolished by Bush...he didn't have the fire in his belly...he seemed to be a candidate because of a good resume...he was a good candidate on paper...

But, without that fire in his belly, he could not win...Dean has that...I think Clark has it to an extent...but I think Kerry is playing politics, dont get me wrong, I saw him at Take Back America in June, and he's an excellent speaker, but that spark isn't quite there...until I see fire, I cant vote for him in the primary...

I think that's what he is lacking right now...you just cant be a presidential candidate because its just what should happen, you got to believe that this country is going in the wrong direction, and without mincing words, stand up and fight to get this country back!!

[Cha]

37. I know what you mean, jab! You've hit it right!

I was soooo disappointed in McBride. It's like ..What Happened to him?

Dean has the Fire in the Belly that some People don't seem to be able to notice!

[pmbryant]

41. You have an excellent point

I was "worried" that Reno couldn't beat Jeb Bush. Too divisive, I thought. So I was pleased when she lost the primary. Then McBride got devastated in the general election. :-(

In retrospect, Reno may not have won, but she certainly would have made it a much more competitive election.

--Peter

[Orangepeel]

54. no she wouldn't have

I don't regret my support of McBride for a minute, despite his limping performance at the end. There is no reason at all to believe that Reno would have done better. She ran the worst primary campaign in history (she lost an almost 60 point lead). Her campaign was disorganized and poorly planned. She spent half the time talking to tourists in shopping malls instead of voters.

In fact, I truly believe that part of the reason that McBride's campaign fell apart near the end was because they hired too many of Reno's ex-staff who were just plain awful!

(end of rant) :-)

(edited for incorrect double negative)

[ModerateMiddle]

58. Kerry does excellent in debate formats

and in one-on-one interviews, or in front of a group of people. He doesn't do rallies very well - although he sure rocked in Boston at the end of his announcement tour.

But there isn't a candidate who is better informed, with more understanding of the issues facing us today.

And yeah, those issues are *complicated*.

[ibegurpard]

32. Funny. That's a lot of what I feel about Kerry.

n/t

[Orangepeel]

34. And I don't think Kerry can beat bush

we're all entitled to our own opinion.

I think that we can't win with a traditional media based campaign and that's all Kerry seems to be able to run. We need someone who can excite people and who can run a guerilla grassroots campaign.

If Dean wins the nomination and then, god forbid, loses to bush, I won't regret doing all I can to get Dean nominated. Because, if that happens, other candidates would have lost too. Dean is the best fundraiser, draws the largest crowds and is running the best campaign. If he can't win, no one can.

[chimpymustgo]

39. Why do you think Dean in on tv all the time? They WANT him.

Inside Politics - 3 different times today - beginning, middle and end, in coverage that could have and should have been wrapped into one piece.

Dean on 60 Minutes II tonight.

Dean on JAY LENO tonight.

They're not even trying to be coy. They want to push Dean over the top before Clark or Kerry or Edwards can get going.

If you had any doubt who THEY want, you should not anymore.

[Orangepeel]

50. I don't make my decisions by trying to second guess republicans

"We'd better figure out what THEY really want and then do the opposite!" That's the Democratic party's problem in a nutshell!

Instead of trying to figure out what "THEY" want (are they telling the truth? Is it reverse psychology? double-reverse psychology?) we need to trust our own instincts and do what we think is best.

Howard Dean has a good message of hope and empowerment and change. He is right on the issues. He is charismatic and has shown the ability to attract very large crowds and a very large number of small donors. I believe that the media gives him a lot of time because he's the most interesting candidate. But, even if it is because they are in some unholy alliance with Karl Rove, it doesn't mean that they are right.

[whirlygigspin]

60. the mysterious "they" conspiracy

the press just play to whatever sells, forget it.
If OJ were back in his bronco running from something else,
you wouldn't hear anything else from the infotainers.

And yes, Kerry is a very fine and articulate legislator,
a big problem for a country that resents intellect.
People love Bush because he sounds like Joe six pack.

Unfortunately he acts more like his mother, the prison warden,
and he never learned that his actions have consequences--*see 9-11.
He has effectively destroyed NATO and severely damaged America's
leadership position in the world, to the point where countries
like Venezuela so completely distrust the corruption of America's
polical process, that they scoff at even the offer of help with
elections from the US and turn to Canada instead.

That may not mean much to you now, but is relatively earth shaterring
to anyone who still beleives this land, as the cradle of Democracy & Freedom, should remain the leader of the world. That position is severly compromised today; out of petulance and sense of intitlement,
this so called pResident has weakened us more than I fear to imagine.

Our founding fathers endured far less when called to revolution.

[Guaranteed]

99. If Dean said THAT, he'd win.

That's all it takes. Someone calling it like it is: Bush has nearly DESTROYED the United States.

[janekat]

115. Well - it's obvious that the media wants Dean to win - why I'm not sure...

n/t

[TLM]

125. THe media coverage of Dean followed his support...

not the other way around.


I know that Dean Bashers would have us beleive that Dean's supporters are all so fucking stupid that we've been duped by the media coverage into thinking he's is some pacifict super liberal and when we figure out he's a moderate, we'll all bail.

The fact is that Dean wasn't even on the major media radar 12 months ago. Dean's support grew massive to record numbers via meetups and the net. 10 months ago nobody in my city knew who Dean was... at the first meet up there were 12 people. Now we have 9 different meetups here, because we're overflowing venues.

Dean broke records, broke new ground, and changed how campaigns are run... then the media started paying attention. After Dean was drawing thousands to speaking events and meetup had tens of thousands meeting each month for Dean... then the media started to focus on him.

The media did not pick Dean... WE DID. And we busted our asses to make the media pay attention, and now that it is paying off and now that we have a guy who is getting his message out effectivly... some shiteads have to attack the fact he's working the media.

It is like you want to lose.

[janekat]

144. touchy, touchy - we can't even comment that Dean gets a lot of media

coverage - without being insulted?

[TLM]

150. Nice try, but it is not simply commenting on coverage...

but trying to deminish the hard work of the Dean supporters by attributing the coverage to some conspriacy, and not the fact that we've been working our butts off for 10 months to get the word out.

[mlawson]

51. I agree, orangepeel68!

I think that Dean, Edwards and maybe Clark could beat bush. But none of the others, because they are not LIKABLE enough, and they don't have the personal touch that is needed to get to the 20% apolitical voters who actually elect the prez (assuming the SCOTUS doesn't do it again).

[gully]

42. Pete, Dean went from 2% in the polls to being the front runner.

Who'da thunk?

Deans got something we've never seen before. He's making history and were part of it.

I understand that fear. I'll have it no matter who gets the nomination. We have to fight like hell for whomever that is. I just hope it's someone who's willing to fight like hell right along with me, Howard Dean.

*In addition, you can bet this Dean supporter won't berate you for sharing your opinion (as you have in a respectful manner.)

[Upfront]

56. Dean Will Win

My heart told me so the first time I heard him speak. Unusual, but my brain has followed my heart for once. Dean took it to Bush hard and he was the first I heard do this. He has not backed down at all. He is out with his openion on the issues all most as they happen. He is getting news coverage because he is exciting. He is saying something, and that makes news. Pete, I have followed your posts for along time, and I respect your thoughts and you are not in any way bashing. This kind of talk with each other is why I love this place. I will back our winner, who ever, as I know you will. We must win!

[realFedUp]

52. I frankly think we can run a real donkey against Bush

next year and the ass would win over the smartass.

I like Dean and he has the momentum, the
interest of new and old voters, money raised from the
grassroots, the prompt and correct responses to what BushInc.'s
doing to this country and the intelligence to choose
good people to be in his administration. I like
that he's a doctor also because health coverage in
this country is the number one concern next to jobs
and getting Iraq governing itself again.

I'll vote for the Dem nominee whoever is chosen
by the people, and I hope it's Dr. and Gov. Howard Dean.

[KaraokeKarlton]

53. Pay very close attention to what I'm about to say to you

As long as people like you are willing to vote for Dean in the general election (everyone who voted for Gore, assuming you did), there is NO WAY Bush can beat Dean. Let me exlain why.

First of all, Dean has woken up one hell of a lot of disillusioned and never before voters. Unless you are involved in at least the meetups, you can't see just how significant the numbers are. This is SO HUGE! It's not "the liberal base" that is fueling Dean's campaign. Sure, there are plenty of those people behind Dean, but they are FAR outnumbered by moderate Democrats, new voters and typical swing voters. This primary is going to consist of voters not much different than voters in the general election. The polling numbers aren't even scratching the surface of telling THAT story because pollsters typically re-poll the same group of people each election.

Kerry does "appear" to be more likely able to beat Bush, but he really isn't. He does stand a chance, but it'd be a real squeaker, and it's not a sure thing. Kerry isn't attracting all those new voters, and frankly, his dumb attacks on Dean is REALLY turning off those NEW VOTERS. A lot of them might not vote for Kerry. Dean is the one who has worked the hardest and inspired the people to get off their duffs and take the country back from the religious right. All those normally complacent and disinterested Americans have chosen Dean as their man at a much higher rate than anyone else. Clark would probably come in second, but the jury is still out on where he stands and whether or not he's the kind of candidate people want. He had an initial surge in the polls, but it's sort of looking like that surge was short lived. Only time will tell.

I've seen Howard Dean in action campaigning and he's got what it takes and he's willing to bust his balls to be successful. Nothing sticks to him and he's downright scrappy and won't be stomped on. Kerry doesn't have the ability to brush off the mud slung at him. I still hear jokes about his hair cuts and "looking French". At another time, he'd make a decent candidate if it weren't for his dumb ass proposal to force kids to do community service to get a diploma. I absolutely DESPISE that idea. I'm all for encouraging kids to volunteer and like the college in exchange for service idea, but NO FORCED service. Okay, back on track now...Kerry is NOT the right guy for THIS election. He doesn't have the executive and budget experience that Dean does. Any of the candidates can get foreign policy right if they use common sense and treat others with respect. The same can't be said of financial and budgetary issues. If you don't know what you're doing with a budget you stand to make one hell of a mess. Voters understand this and it's exactly why the vast majority of the time they will vote for a governor over a senator in damn near every case.

Dean is the one.

[burr]

57. let me remind you of another progressive ideal...

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself." Perhaps you think this is now outdated. But every political candidate or party which made fear the defining rationale for governing has been ultimately doomed to failure. :nopity:

[welshTerrier2]

59. The Wheel's Still in Spin

An Important Post, Pete ... thanks so much for writing what you did ...

i don't have a crystal ball to know whether Dean will or will not stack up well against bush if Dean is the nominee ...

but wise DU'ers would be well served by continuing to evaluate all of our democratic candidates ... one may gain and another fall back as events unfold ... there's still a whole lotta miles from here to the convention ...

it's important to be well versed in the ideas of all prominent progressives ... I've seen some real movement in the Kerry campaign over the last month or so ... there seems to be a new energy that i hadn't seen before ... and, call it politically expedient if you must, but his vote against the $87 billion was, for me, a real acknowledgement that Kerry "gets it" about the madness going on in Iraq ...

I was prepared to dismiss him because of his IWR vote but i've come to see him as one of our top chances to beat bush ... I think that when it boils down to just plain old knowledge of the issues, Kerry is clearly one of the top tier guys ... style and momentum are great, but there's no substitute for real knowledge when it comes to debating ... it could be the difference between winning and losing ... and let's face it, we can't afford to lose ...

your post has the "right" tone that we all should be receptive to ... it's not just about whether you support Kerry or whether you support Dean ... we need to win ... and if you're in one camp or the other today, it would still be foolish to not view both of these guys and their ideas as our best hope ... we still have time to sort thru the details ... let's use that time to make sure we get the best, and the strongest, possible candidate ...

the time for negative campaigning is over ... let's take the best ideas of all the candidates and weave them into a platform that can win ...

keep your minds open, DU'ers ... it OK to support one candidate and still keep your mind open to all the candidates ... who knows who will ultimately be our best chance for victory ...

from a bob dylan song:

come writers and critics who prophesize with your pens
and keep your eyes wide the chance won't come again
and don't speak to soon cause the wheel's still in spin
and there's no telling who that it's naming ...
and the losers now may be later to win
for the times they are a changing

[blm]

62. Wow...welsh, that means alot coming from you.

You've held all their feet to the fire over these many months.

You earned my respect long ago with your relentlessly probing style, but, you doubled it today.

[welshTerrier2]

68. my criticisms of Kerry were never personal

i would never have voted for the IWR and will never agree with the votes of those who saw things differently ...

i've said from day one that i would readily "look beyond" the IWR votes if any of our candidates found his way to the truth ... it wasn't about getting an apology ... it was about having allies against bush's insanity in Iraq ...

How could so many democrats hand bush his $87 billion ??!! i'm so disappointed in so many in our party ... i expected a solid "NO" vote from Kennedy and Byrd and a handful or two of the other democratic heroes ... but i was afraid Kerry would just "stay the course" and go along ... it takes real guts to acknowledge how bad things are over there ... even some of our best DU lefties are arguing "now that we started it we have to stay there " ... i don't buy that for one minute ...

Kerry did a great thing by standing up for the truth ... we need all the allies we can get and Kerry's a good one to have ... for my money, and vote, I'm taking a fresh look at Kerry and all the candidates ... i think we risk losing the election by not taking the full primary season to see how things shake out ...

ruling out any of the nationally viable candidates this early, and for that matter any of the candidates, is in my mind a dangerous business ... these things have a way of twisting and turning as time passes ...

kerry seems to have a renewed energy in his campaign ... i'll be watching him ...

[Beaker]

61. I agree and disagree

While I agree that Howard Dean could have a problem getting elected...I don't think that John Kerry is the answer. IMO, Kerry will have a harder time winning than Dean.
Sharpton and Kucinich make the most sense, but have absolutely no chance. John Edwards screwed the pooch with his coward's approach to the partial birth abortion vote, and CMB isn't even worthy of mention in any discussion of potential presidential contenders. Lieberman? let's just say that CMB is more worthy.
Gebhardt is a nice enough guy, but just not....presidential.

Kerry, Dean, and Clark are only possible nominees, and the repukish dirty tricksters and garbage-collectors know it too. They seem to be most scared of Howard Dean, as evidenced by the uniformity of their answer of his name to the question: "who would you like to see Bush facing on the ballot in Nov. 04?"...c'mon, not one of them would rather be up against Sharpton, Kucinich, or CMB??? They definitely seem the most scared of Dean, and are probably working up the thickest portfolio with the slimiest campaign tricks to use against him.

From the admittedly limited exposure I've had to each of the Main 3, I'm most supportive of Wesley Clark. I very much like the idea of a Clark/Dean ticket. Ultimately, beating the boy king is the most important thing.
and BTW, like you- my wife and I will be leaving the country of our birth if that abomination of a PNAC figureheadis re-installed in his current position. We refuse to live under fascism.

[FubarFly]

64. Candidates who rely too much on DLC tactics and advice

scare me. The GOP already knows how to crush a traditional Dem campaign: Smear your opponent with irredeemable character faults, control the terms of the debate by speaking in generally accepted emotional terms and empty platitudes, and then let your opponent yak to high heaven about the nuances of serious policy differences which most Americans won't listen to anyway. Why not? Because once credibility becomes an issue, it becomes THE issue.

To fight this you need a solid and committed base of support, a strong vocal presence, and an ability to connect with people in basic human terms. No matter how badly they smear you, you have to be willing to stubbornly stand your ground and fight for your principles until you can get your message through. Because in the end, right is right, the truth does matter, and even if people do disagree with you, at least they'll respect you.

The mythical center that the DNC is chasing is a pipedream. If you show Americans strong convictions, vision, and positive values, they will follow your lead. The center will come to you. The over-reliance on polls is one of the most asinine and poisonous aspects of American politics. Bold action informs mainstream opinion, not the other way around. A real leader would understand this. Does John Kerry?

[CWebster]

102. Great post

says it for me.

[frank frankly]

65. Yes, but you seem to be scared of Dean every day!

no offense, I enjoy the debating!

:hi:

[Woodstock]

164. Thank you!

"Yes, but you seem to be scared of Dean every day!"

Now why couldn't I have thought of that. Perfect response.

[onebigbadwulf]

66. I completely disagree

Variables that you're forgetting...

1. Most greens don't want a bush repeat and will vote Dem

2. More soliders dying = Less approval rating

3. Unknown running mate

4. The only reason you think Dean won't win is because the right-wing media tells you he won't win. Why would you ever beleive that?

5. Debates Debates Debates

[quaker bill]

70. Why Kerry scares me

1. Skull and Bones

2. Anti-war activist who votes for war when politically convenient.

3. No energy in his speech (Gore like)

4. Pro-war "liberal" from Mass.

5. Pandering on taxes

[frank frankly]

74. zing!

succinct as hell, quaker!

[Woodstock]

166. bada bing! we need to start some of these "scared of Kerry" threads

I'll practice:

Kerry supporters are the greatest! I love you guys.

But Kerry scares me.

I'm deeply concerned about Kerry.

In my gut, I know Kerry will lose.

I see Kerry People!

Kerry, Kerry, Kerry, Kerry!

[LittleDannySlowhorse]

73. I'm a "Deanie-bopper" but I understand how you feel

The thought of four more years of these people SHOULD scare the living shit out of you, and the fact that you're keeping critical distance from things and weighing options is a good thing. I feel very passionately about Dean, but I know that only gets you so far, and I know that there is the matter of his electability (personally I think he's very electable, but I certainly understand where those who don't feel that way are coming from).

The stakes are very high, possibly higher than in any other presidential election in our nation's history. You have to go with the candidate who feels right to you for the reasons that feel right to you. Trust your gut.

[Jacobin]

75. I have the EXACT OPPOSITE gut instinct

And I have 53 years on my bones. :-(

Kerry will flop in the south and midwest.....he will be vilified and targeted as a "Kennedy liberal" and let me tell you, its probably the worst epithet that can be used among the people whose vote we desperately need.

Oh yeah. They can vilify and will vilify Dean and make up new names to call him. But he's not running on his wife's money, he doesn't have that "too suave" look that is anathema to my fellow denizens of RedVille, he's a doctor (which among many rural folks can be akin to bein' a "preacher" and somewhat beyond reproach), and he speaks in a way that is regarded as earnest.

NYC, I understand ya. I do. If Kerry gets the nod, he'll get my vote and my support. I think he won't have a chance at cracking the heartland vote.

I think Dean can do it.

[Guaranteed]

96. He can.

And he will.
I think people are underestimating exactly how vulnerable Bush is. When Dean gets through with him, I'd be surprised if people aren't throwing tomatos at him or even calling for his head.

Bush is suddenly going to look downright evil to middle America.

[sendero]

76. I can't believe I opened this thread....

....at least I had the good sense to only read a few posts.

I cannot *wait* until the primary is over and these STUPID, MORONIC, UNFOUNDED, and generally TRANSPARENT arguments no longer appear on an hourly basis here in GD.

Why don't you PUSH YOUR CANDIDATE and stop telling everyone what is wrong with theirs. Believe me, you don't want to get me started on your man. And lucky for you, I don't want to engage in that sort of bashing.

thinly veiled bashing deleted :)

[Name removed]

77. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[janekat]

78. Primary voters are much more to the left than in the general election

We've been screwed a few times becasue of this phenomenom.

[janekat]

79. I'm having the same nightmare that you are.... McGovern all over again

n/t

[w4rma]

120. Gov. Dean and Sen. McGovern are not at all alike unless you are afraid of…

… grassroots support.

Dean has taken McGovern's populism, Truman's firey straight-talking, Carter's ethics, Clinton's ability to connect and Gore's intellect and wisdom. Dean is the combination of some of the best qualities of many past Democratic candidates.

Dean Is the New McCain …
And the new Carter, and Goldwater, and McGovern, and Reagan …
By Julia Turner
Posted Thursday, August 7, 2003, at 3:48 PM PT
http://slate.msn.com/id/2086718/

Also, unlike McGovern's low budget campaign of an army of volunteers, Dean is well funded. In fact Dean is the best funded of any of the Democratic candidates.

Unlike McGovern, Dean neither served in the armed forces nor was a U.S. Senator.

Unlike McGovern, Dean is a centrist. McGovern was a liberal Goldwater, IMHO. Dean is a passionate centrist.

[incapsulated]

80. I wouldn't support Clark if...

I had real doubts about his chances against Bush. Winning is too important right now, to me. I worry whenever his campaign screws something up, I worry about anything he may have said or done that Rove and company can use against him. He is not perfect, nobody is. He will have problems, but most of them will be in the primaries, imho. I think he and Kerry are the best canditates to run against Bush in the general election. I'm sure many will not agree.

I don't like Dean, and won't hide that fact. But I will support him as best I can if he get's the nod. But his behaviour in his campaign, statements about medicare, congress and other issues give me a lot of anxiety. He has given the rethugs a lot of material to work with and they are very good at destroying people with only a tiny bit of half-truths.

Obviously, most Dean supporters will disagree. I would urge them to remember that winning the primaries is only half the battle, and to win the White House you will be going up against the princes of fucking darkness who will use anything and everything they can to stop him. I would remind them that although his "passion" may appeal to them, it may well put off the very people he needs to win.

Let's hope for the best, whoever wins the primaries. But let's be honest with ourselves about the canditates, too, including our own.

[janekat]

116. Well said - I agree with you...

n/t

[haymaker]

81. Key word: THINK. That is what you THINK.

Good for you. I am also not quite sure whether the Beruit stuff gives you more insight than anyone else. I tend to think not.

Thanks for telling us what you think.

[Name removed]

87. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[MODemocrat]

83. I truly understand your fear

of having BUSH for president for another term; but, we Dean supporters are NOT riding a loser by supporting him. He is brilliant, and as my husband said tonight "he's very focused." I remember when Harry Truman scared so many of us because it seemed there was no way he could win; but with determination, and a sort of rebellion, he came through. We need to have a strong, no-nonsense candidate to stand up against the Bushgang. :think: :)

[DrFunkenstein]

85. Dean Will Lose On TV To Bush

As important as grassroots work is, national elections are won and lost on TV. We all know that Dean is a center-left candidate, but to regular America he is a radical. If they don't think that now, they will after $200 million in TV ads by Rove.

Dean has left in his wake a motherlode of footage for the GOP to use against him by painting him as unstable. Dean's Howard Beale routine mixed with the pissed-off expression that never leaves his face make him seem slightly scary to middle America - people who are desperately looking for a sense of security.

If you don't believe me, take a look at this ad the GOP has already put out. Tell me that an endless barrage of Dean looking possessed like this won't scare the hell out of Americans.

http://www.gop.org/Newsroom/RNCResearch/TLvideo2.htm

<>

Too hot for TV?

[Guaranteed]

94. Good...

That's exactly what we need: passion.

[TLM]

126. This is another lame meme...

First off, people don't want someone who never gets mad anymore than they want someone who only gets mad.

With centrists and moderate republicans, democrats are seen as pussies... specificaly because we don't get pissed off. People are angry, and fustrated, and they want someone who feels like they do, who understands their anger while also bringing hope for something better.

Dean's anger isn't scary... not being pissed at what Bush has done to this country, now that's scary.

We do not need that Joe Lieberman shit eating grin, smile all the time and bow to the guy who wants to kick you in the head mentality. We need a fighter, and Dean is a fighter.

I think the "he's so angry' meme and the "he's no good on foreign policy" meme really should cancel each other out. Because Dean showing anger is exactly what we need to counteract the idea that democrats are weak, and no good on defense.

[sistersofmercy]

86. Pete, took guts to say it and I totally respect the intuition. I have a

similar intuition about Clark but it has more to do with trust.

[Guaranteed]

97. I'm not sure Clark will be as aggressive as Dean.

I think Clark has similar business connections, so his hands are tied. That's one of the great things about Dean- since he's an outsider, he has a lot of freedom to criticize. And that's what we need to do: attack at all costs. We need to rip this guy apart. Somewhere along the line people got it in their head that he's a good guy. We need to show them that he's a corporate, murdering thief, which should be easy enough as long as we have someone with the passion and courage to actually stand up to him and DO it.

[sistersofmercy]

100. But I think...

all of the candidates have (well except Lieberman) done a fairly good job at bashing the "fearless" poopoohead. I just don't trust Clark and this was before the video of him praising the misadminstration. I used to really like Dean but I have a problem with the dem debate when he misconstrued Gephardt's Gingrich comment then used it for grandstanding. I know we all make mistakes but I just thought it was a snap judgement in the wrong direction.
I do agree Dean has a lot of good things to say and I have a tremendous respect for physicians. If he gets the nod I will gladly vote for him.

[Guaranteed]

103. My biggest concern

is that whoever gets the nomination is going to breath a sigh of relief and then hunker down and take the beating and loss Rove is going to hand to him (ala the IWR.....see?). That's not what we need. Bush is going to win any "tame" or "typical" campaign, like the 2000 one. People will just stick with what they perceive as their mediocre president instead of trying something new.
We need to put a pitbull up there...someone who's going to latch onto Bush and not let go. We need someone who will paint Bush as the corporate, murdering thug that he is. We need to attack him on all his policies, show how he lies, and tie everything together into one, massive character- who Bush really is. All of Bush's actions, threats, maneuvers, when analyzed, can be traced back to and shown to be a product of his ulterior motives and horrible character. We need someone who's willing to take on that task.
And, oh yeah...they definitely need a PLAN, too. ;)

[sistersofmercy]

108. OK

I completely agree with what you're saying but I also think Kerry won't rollover either. I really think it's going to come down to Kerry, Dean & Clark. But the choice of VP will make a huge difference. At this point, I sense Gephardt might be Kerry's running mate and Gephardt will carry the midwest as well as appeal to the southerners. I really like Graham and think he'd make a wonderful VP as well.

[Skwmom]

131. Clark has his hands tied by business connections?

What connections? I've read Dean is in good with the enery industry just waiting for more deregulation and was a friend of big business in VT.
You're not sure Clark will be as aggressive as Dean. Just because Clark doesn't come accross as an angry little man does not mean he won't be aggressive when required.

Check out http://www.buzzflash.com/interviews/03/10/int03221.html

"I want to be careful how I say this, but he has an almost feline presence -- and by that I don't mean "catty," as in bitchy. I mean like a big cat. I once encountered a mountain lion in the Point Reyes National Seashore in California, on a rainy day in winter, when I was all by myself. We stood stock still staring at each other for a few seconds. And there was this moment of "Gee, that's a cougar, this is really cool." And then an instant later, came the feeling of "My God, that's a lion!" There's nothing between me and him, no fence. Clark has a little bit of that kind of presence. You sense a tremendous personal authority about him held in and contained by self-discipline. Not somebody to fuck with, is another way of putting it."

[HFishbine]

139. How About Clark's

lobbying efforts for Acxiom to build a digital dossier of every American?

Retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark helped an Arkansas information company win a contract to assist development of an airline passenger screening system, one of the largest surveillance programs ever devised by the government.

Starting just after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, Clark sought out dozens of government and industry officials on behalf of Acxiom Corp., a data powerhouse that maintains names, addresses and a wide array of personal details about nearly every adult in the United States and their households, according to interviews and documents.

Clark, a Democrat who declared himself a presidential candidate 10 days ago, joined Acxiom's board of directors in December 2001. He earned $300,000 from Acxiom last year and was set to receive $150,000, plus potential commissions, this year, according to financial disclosure records. He owns several thousand shares of Acxiom stock worth more than $67,000.

<snip>

"The privacy impact of anti-terrorism initiatives is certain to be a major issue in the presidential campaign," said David L. Sobel, general counsel at the Electronic Privacy Information Center, an advocacy group in the District.

"The public is extremely skeptical," he said. "He owes the public an explanation as to how, if elected, he would limit the government's expanding collection of personal information about citizens."

Others believe that Clark faces skepticism about the money he took to represent Acxiom, even though many former military leaders have done the same thing.

"There's something unseemly and, yes, mercenary, about a distinguished general lobbying for a company trying to get government contracts," said Charles Lewis, executive director for the Center for Public Integrity.

Clark declined repeated requests in recent weeks to discuss the lobbying and his thoughts on information policy. After announcing his presidential ambitions, Clark quit working as a consultant for Acxiom but maintained his seat on the company's board.




http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A7380-2003Sep26¬Found=true

[Bertrand]

151. i disagree with Clark here

From what i understand, Stephens (clark) was contracted by acxiom to lead help them land govt contracts. While what they were advocating wasnt TIA, i think some of their solutions arent the best couse of action to to protect american citizens while balancing civil liberties.

That said, ive noticed that this is your third seperate thread post on this issue in about the last 15 minutes. I believe that would constitute what many would consider spamming the board, not to mention promoting a hostile atmosphere where people would want to get revenge by "spamming" anti-______ posts on some of things your candidate has done.

[VermontDem2004]

88. I have a gut feeling Dean will beat Bush

it only took me one sentance to say that, not 5 or 6 paragraphs.

[FrenchieCat]

90. If in doubt,

VOTE FOR Clark....

That's where the smart money is

"IT'S THE ECONOMY AND YOUR WAR, STUPID!"
A REAL MILITARY HERO TELLS A GENUINE INTELLIGENCE FAILURE

[CWebster]

91. Pete, you have been plying the board

with persistant efforts and going to torturous lengths to justify Kerry's record while getting in shots at Dean and his supporters. I don't see Dean supporters posting thread to take shots at Kerry to prop up their candidate.

This is little more than flamebait.

Tonight while speaking with my activist Mother on the phone, I asked her what she thought about Kerry. "He'll never win" is all she said. I have nothing to add.

[DrFunkenstein]

92. I Asked My Non-Activist Mom About Dean

And she said she supported kicking Saddam's ass, but it should've been done right.

She's one of those people who reads People magazine and gets her news from the occasional network show. She thinks Dean needs a better tailor and shouldn't point so much, because it's rude.

[CWebster]

101. Can't imagine she would swoon

when Kerry swoops by on his windsurfer get-up.

Marriage to him must be hell, all those walks on the private beach in Nantucket, huh Funkenstein?

[Name removed]

111. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Woodstock]

168. Thank you! I've noticed the same thing

again and again

I'm glad we don't pull this sort of thing:

Kerry, Kerry, Kerry, Kerry!

[Guaranteed]

93. You're just scared.

You're scared of Bush. That's the problem. You're afraid of his attacks. It's true, he's nasty. But he's also very, very vulnerable.

Dean's gonna come out, charm the hell out of people, and tear Bush a new ASSHOLE. That's the plan, that's what he's going to do, and that's how he's going to win.

[Name removed]

112. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Guaranteed]

123. Well, of course...

I misspoke. However, what I meant is that we have to take on that massive machine with courage and integrity. We have to commit to a full, frontal attack. I know it's scary, and we could lose big time. This is going to be knock-down, drag out- but, it's the only way we can win.

If people sense any kind of timidness in us, we're...gonna...lose. 2002.

We have to attack this with everything we have. And what's at stake is more than just our party...our country is truly counting on us here. This really is a war. And we have to win. Perhaps for the entire world.
Fight...you know that you're right...have faith, and fight hard.

[unfrigginreal]

95. And the point of the post?

Another of your "not bashing Dean" posts?

I know that it's not just so you can get it off your chest because it's become a regular excercise of yours.

Maybe every single Dean supporter should start a post every week about our fears of the Nov. 2004 election results should Kerry get the nomination.

Lucky for us Dean supporters that we do live in a normal world, and we're sick of candidates and supporters that think they can game the system by voting with the conventional wisdom. We'll take our chances with a guy that actually believes what he is saying.

My bones are probably creakier than yours after 45+ years, but the one thing that I'll agree with you on is trusting my instincts.

[Name removed]

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[Woodstock]

173. Thank you - many of us have noticed this - well said

The weekly post (sometimes more) about his fears is QUITE the regular exercise.

[hedda_foil]

104. Let me add something I just snipped from a blog comment

This is from an ordinary Dean supporter, not a member of the staff. It's on of a couple of hundred posts on the 60 Minutes II thread. (If you'd have taken the opportunity to watch it Pete, you might feel differently, but it's your call.) In any case, here's what this person from Vermont posted.

Our local CBS affiliate in VT did a brief interview with Rather on our 6:00 news. When asked if Dean was Presidential he said yes he was certainly Presidential. He was also asked what his impression was and he said he had never met a candidate for any office that had more focus and determination than Howard Dean.

[KittyWampus]

107. Anger Is Corrosive- Dean Would Wear Away Support

Well before Election Day if he gets the nomination.

[madfloridian]

117. To bare my soul as well, Dean is inspiring to many political novices.

He is getting many people who had either never paid attention, or who had sworn off politics to be interested again.

I fully believe he has every chance to win the nomination and the election. I did not really think that for a while, but I do now.

[rhite5]

121. You know, I have a hunch the anger factor will be appropriate

a year from now. The masses who have supported Bush and the War or who have been too distracted to think about it ARE just beginning to wake up. I see it every day, little things like the proprietor of my small town book store saying, "We used to be so careful to hide our outrage in front of customers unless we knew for sure they shared it. Not any more! People that we knew were conservatives are coming in and sharing THEIR outrage. Taking us by surprise."

It is spreading and it will continue to spread over the next year. When people who finally realize they were totally fooled before actually wake up, they are ANGRY. In this election they will connect to the guy showing anger and passion. It will be appropriate, in a way that probably was only true when FDR was elected.

That's why I think Dean's persona is right for the times. Dean's demonstrated fiscal conservatism will appeal to them too. They are angry about all the money in the Treasury that has disappeared.

Anger will work in this General Election on several levels.

[FrenchieCat]

124. I disagree, that anger will work....

MANY AMERICANS ARE TIRED OF BEING ANGRY;

Tired of being angry at what was done to Clinton
Tired of being angry about the 2000 Election
Tired of being angry and vengeful for 9/11
Tired of terror alerts and fear
Tired of protesting and not being heard
Tired of being angry for being dragged into a no win war
Tired of being angry that they have lost their job
Tired of being angry that tuitions have gone skyhigh
Tired of being angry that the Media and corporations are screwing them over
Tired of being angry about not getting any of the Democratic agenda passed.
Tired of all of the secrecy

PEOPLE ARE JUST PLAIN POOPED!

People want solutions
People want answers
People don't want to take a gamble
People want to win
People want a reassuring future for themselves and for their children
People want to vote for someone who will signal affective change
People want bipartisanship to get things done
People want to be uplifted with a positive message
People want to feel like someone is in charge

PEOPLE WANT REAL LEADERSHIP

visit the Photogallery: http://www.clark04.com/photos/

[TLM]

127. Your Clark advertisment aside...

I understand that republi-Clark's meme corps want to push the meme that anger at the system is bad and we all need to relax, forget or anger and vote for another hack warmonger/profiteer puppet like Clark so the same insider power elite cabal can maintain their hold on things. However it isn;t going to fly.


The fact is that people are angry. People all over are pissed off. Dean has tapped into that anger and that's why he is winning. People want to see someone is human and that they understand that were pissed off, and share our fustration. People also want to see answers and solutions to the things we are angry and frustrated about. Dean provides both, and that's why he is doing so well. Like Clinton, Dean has found the perfect mix of anger and hope to motivate, inspire, and move people to support him.

He will win.... because we're going to make it happen.

[Guaranteed]

128. I think Dean

is tired of and wanting all of those things, too. People can see that. Dean is going to speak against some very powerful, manipulative people....people who start wars to make money....and the people will see that he is right, and that he's going to do something about it. It will all make sense, and they'll vote for him.

[thebigidea]

157. people want ALAN COLMES

not a DROP of anger in his whole body. Can Clark clame that? HARDLY.

All Hail Alan Colmes!

"uhhh, err... back to you, Sean."

[IrateCitizen]

167. NOOOOOOO! Not again!

I can't take much more of this, TBI!

[dkf]

129. I used to be scared too. I thought that there was no way Bush would

lose to anyone because his poll ratings were so high.

And then I heard Howard Dean and I lost that fear. Now what drives me is hope and enthusiasm, because I believe in my candidate.

I believe that I have the power to change this country. I will participate in my party caucuses because I am not wasting my time, I am doing something for myself and my fellow Americans.

Howard Dean has done that for me.

You say you are supporting Kerry because of your fear. If you are the typical Kerry supporter then Kerry has got problems. Where is the joy in the work that you do for your candidate? Slogging through it all is not inspiring in the least.

I am tired of being afraid and of thinking that we the people are inconsequential. I can make a difference in this world. I will do my darndest to make sure that Howard Dean is elected and I will be enjoying myself the whole way.

[Name removed]

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[CWebster]

130. Because you continually post these ridiculous threads

replete with ludicrous explanations and rationale for Kerry's record as some sort of admirable election strategy in the war against evil, resort to all manners of slippery slopes and emotionally invested arguments, i.e. I lived through hell and here are my impressive credentials and I am here to ring the alarm bells that we all should be ascared of that terrible looming threat of Dr. Dean.

C'mon Pete- Get off it.

[Name removed]

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[CWebster]

140. We all share your concern, but I question your agenda.

I don't question your sincerity, but Kerry has real problems. He has a myriad of image problems--has run a nasty and ill-advised campaign and has taken contradictory, convoluted positions. He can not have both. He has the unfortunate tendency to talk around issues rather than confronting them directly and just doesn't resonate with the common man while alienating the Left with his endless military status references during a time of another disasterous act of US aggression. What could he possibly be thinking? Clark takes the wind out of those soldier boy sails. Even without a proven record Clark has more stars and an ousider's slick charm. Do you really believe Clark could've been induced to jump in if Kerry was a serious contender?

[Name removed]

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[CWebster]

142. Well you can't pitch a more emotional plea

than painting a fearful image of forboding should Dean win.

I think the major momentum of the Dean campaign is hope and determination to confront and revitalize. I think he is the perfect antidote for the dishonesty, exploited fearmongering and shattered illusions this country is laboring under. I think we need a candidate who eminates a practical well-groundedness in reality and a assertive feisty character who doesn't speak down to people but seeks to include them in the process - instead of outward displays of medals as compensation and vain display.

I am not tearing into Kerry because I support Dean, I am only sharing with you what I think Dean's strengths and Kerry's weaknesses are.

[mmonk]

134. Dean doesn't scare me, but Bush does.

One thing that bothers me about Dean however, is that he seems big on state's rights (or do I read him wrong?).

[Jonte_1979]

135. Paraphrasing Blue Oyster Cult here

Baby don't fear the deanster!

But seriously, there's nothing wrong with having reservations about some of the candidates. I'm a deanie but, truth be told, I really have no idea how he'll do with the american voters against the chimped crusader.

[mrgorth]

143. I'm a Dean supporter and I'm worried

but there's no guarantees with anyone. Maybe the time is right for someone like Dean.

[Hep]

145. Here's more of that FAKE concern!

"I'm just scared that he can't win. I can't talk about which policies would lead to his demise. I can't point to anything specific. I just have this 'fear' that he can't win, and I'm going to share it with anyone."

PeteNYC, would you want to put up with this shit if it were about Kerry? Vote for Kerry. If he loses, vote for the D. Get your friends to vote D. Throw your crystal ball away.

[Woodstock]

171. I see Dean People!!!!

Amen, Hep.

Enough already, or I'm going to start posting daily deep personal thoughtful gravely concerned sincere frequent update everyone on DU threads about how Kerry scares me!

Facts, anyone?

[Duder]

146. Kerry would lose to Bush

IMHO, he would be the worst of all candidates because you won't beat Bush by trying to outrank and outflank him on National security issues. That's playing their game. Kerry's carcass will be his senate record and Rove will feed it to the masses for an image of a wishy-washy candidate whose positions are about as cloudy as his IWR position has been portrayed. Add to that Kerry's perceived aloofness and inability to connect to the general populous and you'll have the recipe for four more years of Bush.

The Bush strategy in 2000 was in avoiding the issues and going for a populous message and that's the strategy that could bring him down in 2004. The best candidate to put Bush on the defensive and offer the public a clear alternative is Howard Dean, imo.

Kerry is too scary.

[Name removed]

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[Duder]

176. Nope, my heart felt talking points

If issues and resumes were all it took to win elections then the one in 2000 wouldn't have even been close and Gore would have won by a landslide.

Think about it.

[Dover]

148. And why do you think Kerry IS more electable? What indicators

are you going by? Why not Clark instead? He's supposedly the media sweetheart.

[Name removed]

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[Hep]

153. How exactly?

Becauase he won senate races? No dirty tricks in governors races I guess.

And Kerry's done a great job of dealing with right wing thugs. He's made sure that there was at least ONE vote against SOME of their bills.

Thanks, John!

[Name removed]

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[Hep]

161. OK

He did good stuff in the 80's and early nineties. let's make him president!

[Woodstock]

152. Still at the passive agressive Dean bashing, I see, Pete

I reluctantly put you on ignore solely because I was tired of stepping through your daily oh so transparent passive agressive Dean bashing threads, and I didn't log in before I saw this thread.

So one last "I'm looking through you" comment from Woodstock to Pete NYC (and I can predict your indignant response, just like before.)

Day after day of Pete NYC threads that go like this:

Dean supporters are wonderful! (passive)

but here's my personal thoughts about why he sucks (aggressive)

Yawn City. Been there. Done that.

Kerry is going nowhere but back to the Senate. It's going to be Clark or Dean.

[Name removed]

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[Hep]

163. Sincerity and directness?

THat passes for poop where I live. Helms was sincere and direct. He still pushed a BAD message. You're pushing NO meswsage at all. Just passing on that FAKE concern.

[Name removed]

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[Hep]

177. Try really hard to understand

I know you can do it. I can appreciate someone being "sincere" and "direct", but it doesn't make a person RIGHT, and it doesn't make what they're saying VALID.

I wasn't comparing you to anyone, I was giving an example. But you take it how you want to. BTW, Hitler was sincere and direct too. Can we end the thread now?

I live in a very strange place. Here where I live, we don't use magic 8 balls to determine who can beat bush and who can't. No ouija boards, no tea leaves. We support the guy we want to, and we pledge to vote D in November 2004. It doesn't surprise me in the least that this comes off as strange to you.

[IrateCitizen]

154. Pete, you have to realize that "Dean" is much bigger than just Dean

One reason that so many people are attracted to him is the MOVEMENT, the PHENOMENON that he represents.

I'm a Kucinich supporter first (although I harbor no illusions that he will get the nod, I just think many of his ideas are SO important to be heard right now), but I must say that I'm encouraged by the phenomenon that the Dean candidacy has become.

Why? Because it is not based on Washington insiders or pollsters, but rather a vibrant grassroots movement. It is something that took people who have never been involved in politics before, and got them excited about something political. And it scares the living shit out of the Democratic Party insiders, because it represents a force that could actually wrest control of the party AWAY from their incompetent hands.

I don't harbor any illusions that Dean is some kind of ultra-progressive candidate. I don't think a lot of people attracted to him do, either. But I do realize that, thus far in his campaign, he has allowed this great mass of people to take a meaningful role in the shaping of his message and campaign strategy. And that is important.

As much as Dean scares you, I have to say that Kerry is the one that scares me. I don't see much more from him except the same Clintonesque policies that cede too much to the Republicans and only serve to nibble around the edges. His stance on trade is totally misguided, if we want to have any hope of recapturing ANY of rural America. He's a Washington insider AND an East Coaster, which makes him seem out of touch with a large majority of America. And most of all, he seems wedded to the same advisory teams that have fucked up the Democratic party so badly over the past several years.

Sure, I'd vote for him in a heartbeat if he were to get the nomination. But I also hope like hell he DOESN'T get it, for the reasons I outlined above. We need a real change right now, and I just don't see Kerry being the kind of force to make that change. Not in the way that the "Dean Phenomenon" could, should he stick with it in the event he wins the nomination.

[Name removed]

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[Scott Lee]

165. Dean scares you? How about the perpetuity of "Never Ending War"?

Pete I thank you for your thoughts and I respect your experience in the real hot spots of the world. We don't get that too often in the comfortable seat called the USA.

That being said, I want to address your sentiments on Howard Dean. But in order to do that, I should let you know a little about my past. I spent several years in the Anti-Nuclear Testing movement. Accrued three arrests, a near run over by an angry truck driver as I tried to block his entry into the Nevada Test Site, a few beatings by police and even a couple of wild bullets. Suffice to say I felt passionately about peace, and pacifism. I never fought back, never took a swing at my attackers or resisted arrest. I was positive that the peaceful would prevail with determination and holding to our principles. What did it get us? After a few year moratorium on nuclear testing (we thought we won), now the assholes behind the New American Century fascist plan (hawks like Cheney, Wolfowitz and others in the Bush crew) are going to start up underground testing again. And that is only icing on the cake of their drive for perpetual war.

What I had done was actually the smaller version of appeasement.

Howard Dean is not nearly as approachable as Kerry, nor does he come off as being as amicable. Dean is like a doberman, Kerry, your golden retriever with your house slippers in his mouth, greeting you at the door as you return home. Like you, in a perfect world, I'd love to vote for a guy like Kerry. But I can't, because as much as liberals do not want to hear it, we are in the first hard stages of a war at home. A culture war, a war for American principles and fair play in the world for which we on the Left fought so hard. That nasty reality means that we have to employ warriors of our own. Dean is a warrior, Kerry sadly misplaced (even as a vet himself) in a time that demands resistance instead of touchy feely attempts to persuade.

In the end, Howard Dean may not prevail over Bush. But his presence at this time, the amazing campaign he's waged already, and the shocking size of his support base are all good news to us who have been bloodied by the the thugs on the right long enough. He represents a fighter when we need one. He represents the flashpoint of the silent-until-now majority of Americans who have had it with Bush. He represents the once fierce righteousness with which the liberal democrat went about changing their world for the better.

Not to parrot a campaign slogan, but it bears repeating - Dean DOES represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.

There's an old saying that says you don't bring a nerf bat to a gunfight. My friend, we are in a gunfight. Lets not pretend otherwise.

To victory.

[blm]

169. Yes, Dean fought Bush on Yucca Mt, Sierra Blanca, and deregulating

electricity. He's a REAL Democrat.

Oops...no he didn't, he supported all three.

btw....Kerry, the golden retriever is the one who refused to let go of BCCI, uncovered IranContra, and exposed CIA drugrunning. He was the first lawmaker to advocate for gays to serve openly in the military. Helped craft CHIPS, Hate Crimes bill, and the Kyoto Accord and wrote a book about terrorism as the new war in 1997.

What an ineffective nobody he turned out to be.

Care to list all the things that Dean FOUGHT FOR as governor?

[Polemonium]

172. Dean's got the grass roots to keep the energy going

And who ever gets the nod, is going to get a whole lot more energy. I assume if Dean wins the nomination your not just going to throw up your hands and surrender, so your fear is misplaced. A candidate without deep grass roots, and many progressive supporters is the one more likely to loose. For two or three elections Rethug-lite has not worked because the left has no where to turn and the centrists can't make up their minds between two similar choices. It's time we put strategy (so far a loosing one in the cellar). Dean is not the most liberal, or the best candidate for many of us, but then he has engaged more people than any other candidate and for that reaason is our best chance.

[rbnyc]

175. Confession!

You're the person I was talking about when I wrote this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=472591

I respect your point of view so much. And I have no business telling you there's no validity to your concerns. To say that I don't agree isn't quite right. But I can't let my primary vote be fear-driven. It just goes against who I am.

:loveya:

[rbnyc]

178. My lunch break is over...

...but I'd love to talk more about this later.

:hi:

[Name removed]

179. Deleted message

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