The Dynamic of a Bush Scandal: How the Spying Story Will Unfold (and Fade)

[Presstitutes]

http://daoureport.salon.com/synopsis.aspx?synopsisId=a6da2e05-c808-4f7e-9ab2-3d2a01a82a15

The third button on the Daou Report's navigation bar links to the U.S. Constitution, a Constitution many Americans believe is on life support - if not already dead. The cause of its demise is the corrosive interplay between the Bush administration, a bevy of blind apologists, a politically apathetic public, a well-oiled rightwing message machine, lapdog reporters, and a disorganized opposition. The domestic spying case perfectly illuminates the workings of that system. And the unfolding of this story augurs poorly for those who expect it to yield different results from other administration scandals.

Here's why: the dynamic of a typical Bush scandal follows familiar contours...

1. POTUS circumvents the law - an impeachable offense.

2. The story breaks (in this case after having been concealed by a news organization until well after Election 2004).

3. The Bush crew floats a number of pushback strategies, settling on one that becomes the mantra of virtually every Republican surrogate. These Republicans face down poorly prepped Dem surrogates and shred them on cable news shows.

4. Rightwing attack dogs on talk radio, blogs, cable nets, and conservative editorial pages maul Bush's critics as traitors for questioning the CIC.

5. The Republican leadership plays defense for Bush, no matter how flagrant the Bush over-reach, no matter how damaging the administration's actions to America's reputation and to the Constitution. A few 'mavericks' like Hagel or Specter risk the inevitable rightwing backlash and meekly suggest that the president should obey the law. John McCain, always the Bush apologist when it really comes down to it, minimizes the scandal.

6. Left-leaning bloggers and online activists go ballistic, expressing their all-too-familiar combination of outrage at Bush and frustration that nothing ever seems to happen with these scandals. Several newspaper editorials echo these sentiments but quickly move on to other issues.

7. A few reliable Dems, Conyers, Boxer, et al, take a stand on principle, giving momentary hope to the progressive grassroots/netroots community. The rest of the Dem leadership is temporarily outraged (adding to that hope), but is chronically incapable of maintaining the sense of high indignation and focus required to reach critical mass and create a wholesale shift in public opinion. For example, just as this mother of all scandals hits Washington, Democrats are still putting out press releases on Iraq, ANWR and a range of other topics, diluting the story and signaling that they have little intention of following through. This allows Bush to use his three favorite weapons: time, America's political apathy, and make-believe 'journalists' who yuck it up with him and ask fluff questions at his frat-boy pressers.

8. Reporters and media outlets obfuscate and equivocate, pretending to ask tough questions but essentially pushing the same narratives they've developed and perfected over the past five years, namely, some variation of "Bush firm, Dems soft." A range of Bush-protecting tactics are put into play, one being to ask ridiculously misleading questions such as "Should Bush have the right to protect Americans or should he cave in to Democratic political pressure?" All the while, the right assaults the "liberal" media for daring to tell anything resembling the truth.

9. Polls will emerge with 'proof' that half the public "agrees that Bush should have the right to "protect Americans against terrorists." Again, the issue will be framed to mask the true nature of the malfeasance. The media will use these polls to create a self-fulfilling loop and convince the public that it isn't that bad after all. The president breaks the law. Life goes on.

10. The story starts blending into a long string of administration scandals, and through skillful use of scandal fatigue, Bush weathers the storm and moves on, further demoralizing his opponents and cementing the press narrative about his 'resolve' and toughness. Congressional hearings might revive the issue momentarily, and bloggers will hammer away at it, but the initial hype is all the Democrat leadership and the media can muster, and anyway, it's never as juicy the second time around...

Rinse and repeat.

It's a battle of attrition that Bush and his team have mastered. Short of a major Dem initiative to alter the cycle, to throw a wrench into the system, to go after the media institutionally, this cycle will continue for the foreseeable future.

=====

Posted in full with permission of the author.

[spindrifter]

1. It's kind of like donor fatigue, eh?

We uxpend a lot of energy getting no place--but then something with this Admin. will hit the fan--they have been remarkably unaware of their true vulnerabilities. We have some walking wounded among them--Kkkarl, for example. DeLay for instance. With them not up to their usual, I am optimistic that even w/ our own wounds, their will be an inevitable crash and burn before the term is up.

[ddeclue]

2. Not this time...

It's too out of control for spinning. It's too black and white in the law. As soon as Prosecutor Fitzgerald gets a hold of it, it's impeachment time.

Jonathan Alter over at Newsweek is already calling Bush a lawbreaker and saying this is impeachable:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10536559/site/newsweek/

"No, Bush was desperate to keep the Times from running this important story—which the paper had already inexplicably held for a year—because he knew that it would reveal him as a law-breaker. He insists he had “legal authority derived from the Constitution and congressional resolution authorizing force.” But the Constitution explicitly requires the president to obey the law. And the post 9/11 congressional resolution authorizing “all necessary force” in fighting terrorism was made in clear reference to military intervention. It did not scrap the Constitution and allow the president to do whatever he pleased in any area in the name of fighting terrorism."

This story is spinning out of control fast on Bush and he has maybe a week or two tops before he is past the point of no return.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[kaygore]

4. But he has already broken sooo many laws and gotten away with it

What's one more unless the Democrats can rally this time and do something about it.

[ddeclue]

11. Well here's why:

Most of the stuff he's gotten away with had some wiggle/weasel room in it, for instance -lying about WMD's - hard to prove he lied to the standard required to impeach him.

In this case (the wiretaps) the law is very plain and clear and the jackass confessed to it on national TV. The Special Prosecutor is going to go for this you can count on it and even the Republicans in Congress and the Senate are angry at him and are going to go after him - Arlen Specter, Linsday Graham, et. al. You can count on at least 10 Republicans defecting to vote for investigations and the more that this scandal unfolds, the more that will defect.

Don't give up so easy. Bush is counting on it.

Write and call your Congressman and Senators and newspapers and demand an investigation!

There's no two ways about this, this is an impeachable felony:

Please see my blog at:

www.brainshrub.com/president-wiretap

on this to see what I mean.

Doug De Clue
Orlando, FL

[kaygore]

18. I also write, call, email, FAX, and even show up at their doors

and, having "lived" in many different over the past few years, I do so to MANY senators and representatives--Democrats and Republicans. However, I am only one voice and the Democratic Party which is supposed to represent me just can't seem to get its act together.

The problem is NOT attracting enough moderate voters; the problem is the inability of the Party to speak with a unified voice and to stay focused on an issue long enough to hold the Republicans accountable.

[ddeclue]

24. I am only one voice is defeatist.

This is the way they beat us. They count on our apathy and self-defeatism. Don't give in to it.

You are one of millions of voices who are speaking out right now. Speak out and stand up for what is right.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[kaygore]

33. True, read "The Tipping Point"

[ddeclue]

35. Actually I already have and I was thinking that when I posted!

Great minds think alike!

[kaygore]

48. Great book isn't it.

I love the research-basis it provides for the fact that one individual CAN make a significant difference.

[Cha]

29. I will be calling my Senators

and Congressman tomorrow..we'll see what they think about this felony that bush has admitted on national tv.

"Listening in without a warrant isn't just impolite, it's a felony"

[librechik]

12. yeah. but this time he really looks like a craven lying p***y

The testosterone-dominated brain pool of RWers which has been hiding up Bush's ass for years is starting to feel itself shrink, which is intolerable, I am sure. They are trying out "my president right or felon" right now, but that won't last. They are all going to jail, and they know it, although Junior is delusional and pretending it's all OUR FAULT! As soon as they can devise a strategy to declare victory even though their pants are pooled around their ankles (i.e., Ollie North) Bush will find himself, well, let's just say that he "won't pose a theat to the US anymore."

we will get a reprieve. Bet on it.

Unless this really is the end. Which I doubt. Eternal war is a goldmine for the defense industry, but it wipes out ALL other industries. And the consumers which support them. It's madness. We've been down this road before, and most businessmen, while assholes, are rarely insane. In fact, insanity is rare, while assholes are everywhere! Businessmen remember what happened in 29 and in 93 and in the other 93. And they are assholes enough to dump Bush in a flash once he no longer generates profits. It should have happened sooner.


Anyway, eventually the market for eternal war will disappear one way or another.
Unfortunately, nowadays, the markets, along with everything else, could literally disappear forever. For a thousand years, if history is any guide. Or longer, given the half-time of plutonium.

Shrub must be stopped. Even if they don't realize it yet.

[Exiled in America]

13. I've been hearing that since 200-fucking-1.

[kaygore]

3. It's election rigging, it's torture, it's Gannon... all over again

It's too bad that there is no real Democratic leadership that can whip the party into shape and get it to form a single, coherent message.

If the Daily Show were on these two weeks, Stewart would have a field day with the whimpiness of the Democrats.

[ddeclue]

14. No it's not.

Bush never confessed before, the law was never so clear before, and the seriousness of the law was never so grave before.

It's 5 years and 10,000 dollar fine per count for each wiretap, 5 years for each conspiracy count and I don't know but probably also 5 years for each obstruction of justice count.

If he's tapped thousands of phones we're talking 5,000 years+ in jail just on the phone counts. Did you ever see the movie "The Firm" well this is like the mail fraud counts in that movie. Bush is in deeper trouble than he's ever been or could have imagined.

Take a look at Jonathin Alter's Newsweek piece on this. It's not just the bloggers who know they've got George this time it's the main stream media.

And Prosecutor Fitzgerald will no doubt go after Bush on this. It's a slam dunk case.

Doug D.
Orlando FL
(check out my blog on this at brainshrub.com)

[kaygore]

19. The we need to go after him and his with the law

and take them to court rather than count on Republicans to clean their own nest.

[ddeclue]

46. Don't think they can do that to the President...

Sorry but you could get everybody from the White House Pool man to the Veep that way but I'm pretty sure that the Constitution would require the Prez to be impeached first.

On the other hand, I think the Republicans are tired of covering for his ass. He's been screwing up bad ever since the reselection and they've got a mid term coming up in '06. Impeaching him themselves may get them out of trouble with the American voters.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[kaygore]

20. Bush et al. are criminals

and should be prosecuted in criminal court!

[kath]

26. Does Fittzgerald have the authority to go after W on this issue?

[ddeclue]

27. Well..

I'm sure he has pretty broad powers to investigate it as he is already doin Plamegate and has wide latitude there. I don't believe that he has the power to file charges against the President because the Constitution stipulates impeachment as the only valid method but he can certainly refer his findings to the leaders of the Congress and the Senate and they'll have a hard time sweeping it under the rug.

Fitzgerald can also go after lots of the underlings all the way up to the Veep (remember they got Spiro Agnew on tax evasion in 1973 and he was Nixon's Veep) and flip them against Bush. Bush can't start handing out "get out of jail free" pardons to them or the Congress WILL impeach because they can't be seen to be white washing it for Bush given their own corruption scandals.

Finally, if Bush IS impeached by the House and convicted and removed by the Senate, Fitzgerald can hold those criminal charges until that point and file them against him after he is removed. Bush will need his own Gerald Ford to pardon him if he doesn't want to spend the rest of his life in jail. (Check out my web-blog where I do the math at brainshrub.com)

Bush is in a world of legal hurt right now and I hope he has a few dozen good criminal and constitutional attorneys on hand.

Dontcha just love KARMA?

[gkhouston]

49. only if it's somehow connected to the CIA leak case.

If, for example, he somehow discovered that the Wilsons had been illegally wiretapped, I think he could pursue that angle. I'm not sure how Fitzgerald would discover that the NSA had been snooping on a CIA operative and her husband, though; I can't see the NSA giving up that information without a protracted fight, if ever.

[tblue37]

30. Pardon-pardon-bo-bardon--

bananafana-fo-fardon-fe-fi-mo-mardon--That's PARDON!

[tblue37]

32. And, yes, I know he can't pardon himself,

but he can pardon all of the other criminals in his administration, and then his appointed successor can pardon him. It's happened before, after all.

[ddeclue]

34. Yeah but hard to do unless it's you're last day in office.

Daddy bush handed out a lot of get out of jail free cards to his Iran-Contra buddies but waited until the end and didn't try to pardon his way out of trouble like that.

Doug D.

[tblue37]

42. Yeah, but I think Bush-baby will do it.

W has no concern at all about how others will view him if he uses pardons this way. He doesn't care if it harms Republican electoral prospects in the future. His concern is always and only with his own needs and wants.

I think he will do it, and that there will be a general public recoil if he does. In fact, there might even be noise about limiting the president's power to pardon if he uses it so blatantly to cover his own ass. Sure, his dad did it for CYA purposes, but there was a different degree of obviousness there.

[Tuesday_Morning]

45. You're so right...and WE get more organized

every time. We get louder every time. Our numbers grow every time.

This is NOT just same old, same old.

[Warpy]

5. I think there's something you haven't considered

and that is that Stupid's team did an end run around the law and used illegal and unconstitutional wiretaps because they were both taping an increasingly long list of enemies (DNC figures, Dem Congressmen, "unfriendly" judges, media figures) and may also have been conducting fishing expeditions for dirt to use when they twisted Congressional arms in their own party.

When Congress finally twigs to that one, we will see some real action. No, they'll consider themselves safe for the time being, until they start thinking about it or until they start having very personal things brought up to them by Fat Karl when Stupid is throwing a temper tantrum about unacceptable legislation getting stalled.

We've been here before, and this bunch isn't nearly as smart as the Nixon bunch were.

[ddeclue]

23. Well BUSH isn't as smart as Nixon anyways

There were some goobers under Nixon too if you've read the reports. The Watergate burglarly was such a stupid low yield high risk venture and they went back more than once because the bugs weren't very good.

It's true that Nixon did tape himself but as dumb as that was he wasn't dumb enough to invite the press corps in to watch him confess to thousands of felony counts on national TV. George on the other hand....

At this point stupid has got to be his new call sign.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[kentuck]

6. If the press fails to report this, they need to go after the press...

"Short of a major Dem initiative to alter the cycle, to throw a wrench into the system, to go after the media institutionally, this cycle will continue for the foreseeable future."

[Presstitutes]

40. Agree 100%

Here's my site: http://www.presstitutes.com/

[PetraPooh]

7. You hit my fear on the head.

I keep hoping, everytime something comes up, but seems it just fades and more goes on. Sure wish the dems would step up and hit the darn ball. Or as stated, stick with it till it takes him down.

[newyawker99]

44. Hi PetraPooh!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

8. Accurate 99.9% of the time. I am beginning to think this may be the .1%

Heres to hopin!

:toast:

[ThomWV]

9. What is so sad is that its so true.

My outrage never slacks up at all, its everyone else's I'm worried about.

[linazelle]

10. Bookmarked as a reminder in case I begin to believe Bush will meet justice

in this lifetime.

[C_U_L8R]

15. Baloney...

Your premise supposes that Democrats are weak.

We will prove you wrong.

[autorank]

16. Nice post and site.

But here's what I think. We're in a 'civil war' between dueling factions of the establishment. The anti-Bush group is coalescing and recognizes the need to move quickly. They can no longer point to tax cuts or reduced regulation because, after all, when we're all broke or dead from some eco-catastrophe, those things will not be useful.

The difference between a full blown collapse of * and the incremental version we're seeing is media coverage. They either don't cover stories (e.g., election fraud) or do cover them but only for a day. They are unable to focus and disincentive at too much focus, when they try because the 'final word' has not come down.

Watch for real press coverage that is SUSTAINED and you'll know the end is near. Or watch for real press coverage of election fraud and 2000 and 2004. That also means the dam has broken. That's the ultimate buzz kill for the ( administration.

We'll see. Nice post.

[lonestarnot]

17. Nope not this time!

[Jade Fox]

21. Yes, but there is a definite hammering effect happening....

Each scandal has had its effect, I believe, in weakening Bush. What we are working toward is that straw that broke the camel's back or critical mass, whatever you want to call it. This may or may not be the one. It has a better chance due to our insular nature as a country. We get more outraged by what is done to us than others, because we are able to live our lives without having to know much about what is going on elsewhere. That's part of why Katrina had such a powerful effect, but Bush was able to partially deflect the blame for Katrina. With this spying, he has come right out and claimed it--a dangerous move for him.

[drhilarius]

22. This is true because of, if anything, point 9...

I'd be surprised if more 40% of Americans actually knew what the fourth amendment entails (the only one most seem to give a damn about is the second). Hey, if bush wiping his ass with the constitution is what it takes to protect us from the terraists, then so be it....at least that's what many will think.

[sandnsea]

25. Pete forgot a step

Where somebody finds something to shoot the Democrats over and the issue dissolves into a spitting match among the left and Democrats, allowing Bush to scoot away unscathed.

I already saw inklings of it today when Josh Frank took a shot at Clinton. If this really unfolds as the rest of the scandals unfolded, it'll be about whether Clinton and the DLC actually started the spying which will be the new reason we should throw them all out. I predict that will be the debate within a week.

And no matter how many times people beg for it to stop, it won't, and then Bush will get away again, and the spineless DLC will be blamed.

And a whole lot of us will throw our hands in the air and ask "will they ever ever ever learn."

[Wordie]

28. Solution: Say it LOUD, say it CLEAR:

The dems need to choose only three issues, tops, and all of them need to start saying the same thing, over and over. Here are my choices:

1) Patriot Act: Stress that it is the PRESIDENT who has the choice. He has been offered a 3-month extension. If he thinks the act is so important for our safety, fine, sign the 3-month extension. Stress how he is playing politics, and he can't have it both ways.

2) Go after him HARD on his claims that he had to circumvent FISA because of time concerns (he is trying to claim that as an excuse). Show that FISA has a 72 hour grace period. They can start the surveillance and then they have 72 hours to get it before the court. That time argument is nonsense. If you can so EASILY show him to be lying, that's what will defeat him.

Part of the problem, imho, is that there are so many things about which to complain about Bush, that the message as a whole becomes diluted. And although there really has been a pattern like that described in the OP, but we just can't give up. More and more people are listening, if you consider the polls (not counting the moment-to-moment fluctuations).

[quiet.american]

31. Pretty much nails it -- and maybe just one more thing --

DNC Chairman Howard Dean will be quoted as identifying the elephant in the room, as in, "George W. Bush wouldn't know the Constitution if somebody read it to him, and he doesn't care about the rule of law, except in how he and his corrupt administration can repeatedly violate it without consequence."

Immediately, Joe(s) Biden and Lieberman, and perhaps two other "prominent" Democrats will announce Dean doesn't speak for them, therefore effectively nailing the lid shut on Bushco's scandal, while unleashing the "Dean moment of the month" news cycle for at least two weeks.

[Presstitutes]

39. So true

.

[fishnfla]

36. yup nt

[tinrobot]

37. Can the people who were bugged file charges?

Let's say Joe Doe discovers that his phone was tapped without a warrant.

Can he file charges in federal court?

If so, how can we get the list of people who were bugged so the charges can be filed? FOIA? ACLU?

[leveymg]

38. I think we'll find the list had a lot of Johns mixed in w/ the Mohameds

Don't be too surprised if there aren't also a couple Democratic Congressmen and career State Department officials who had their phones tapped without warrants, and the transcripts ended up on the desks of Bolton and some other Administration appointees.

Yes, there'll be FOIA filings and law suits galore over this. I'm VERY concerned, however, that this Supreme Court is intent on overturning the Nixon-era rulings on this and other abuses of Presidential powers.

We're headed for a real Constitutional crisis.

[info being]

41. The system doesn't work. If it did, it wouldn't have gotten to this point

Why, now, would anything be different? We are on a course for total destruction.

[Skidmore]

43. This scandal needs a face and a name...not a ---gate thing but

a living breathing person who has suffered and could be you, or me, or Joe Anybody. That will drive the egregiousness of this crime home.

[PetraPooh]

47. Weebles wobble but they don't fall down.

I was so expecting something more forceful from our side by now. . . but once again . . .weebles wobble but they don't fall down. WTheck does that man have to do for folks to see the admin for what it is! I am just dumbfounded by the way all of this is being reported on the news, how its not being handled by dems (talked to death but where's some impeachment or action of some type!), rrrrrrrrrrrr! HOW CAN THIS BE???????