Electoral math for Clark?

[jumptheshadow]

Today on a local New York station that stellar trio of Alfonse D'Amato, Ed Koch and Mark Green were discussing Wesley Clark's candidacy. D'Amato is D'Amato (a horse's ass), Mark Green is a Kerry man and that old Grinch Ed Koch believes that George Bush is going to be reelected. Well, anyway --

Their consensus was that if Clark doesn't win South Carolina that he is out of the game.

Is this true?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. I Don't know about South Carolina but...

Kock is mad at the Dem's because Dave Dinkins beat him out in the 1989 Democratic Primary and ever since he's been ice cold to the Democratic Party! Ignore Him!!

[VOX]

2. You mean if he loses *one* primary he's washed up???

I don't think so...

[jumptheshadow]

5. This was their assumption...

They didn't think he would win New Hampshire or Iowa and that, in turn, would make South Carolina mandatory for Clark.

However, at least one or two of them saw Kerry as the eventual nominee. It currently looks like Kerry doesn't have a shot in New Hampshire. How is he doing in Iowa? If he doesn't win either of those two states then I don't see him prevailing in South Carolina. So maybe these guys are talking through their hats.

By the way, word is that they didn't want Mario Cuomo to join them on this show because he would have made all of them look like mental munchkins.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

3. Two Kerry Supporters and a Dean Supporter

All Clark needs to do is raise cash, maintain some momentum with the grassroots, and place better-than-expected in IA (i.e. 4th) and NH (i.e. 3rd). Anything more than that is gravy, and if by some miracle he wins either, he will crush the rest of the field. Anything worse than that is a minor down arrow.

There are over a half-dozen states up next, including SC, where Edwards is investing heavily. Clark must come in at least 2nd in SC, but preferably 1st. Another key, however, will be how Clark does in the other non-SC states on that day. He should win at least some of them, or else he has problems (unless he wins SC, then a bunch of second-places is probably survivable but still difficult unless he wins at least a couple).

Then Clark needs to split the Super Tuesday states, at which point he will probably CRUSH in the Southern Tuesday states unless Edwards manages to hang that long, and even then it'd probably be a split between Clark and Edwards.

Clark's natural advantage over Dean in the South and probable advantage among superdelegates gives Clark a lot of room. Dean has to hope Edwards stays in as long as possible; the sooner Edwards drops, the better it is for Clark.

By that same token, Clark will be boosted if Gephardt wins IA and/or Kerry (or Clark) wins NH. Although there is a chance that Dean winning both might actually help, if Gephardt and Kerry supporters then move over to Clark.

DTH

[Justice]

4. Good Analysis Of the Big Picture

Thanks.

[Kahuna]

7. DTH is our pundit extroadinaire!

He rocks!

[DoveTurnedHawk]

10. Thanks!

You're making me blush. :-)

:yourock:

DTH

[jumptheshadow]

6. Thanks

Interesting stuff.

[jumptheshadow]

8. You probably know this by heart

How is Clark currently polling in the half-dozen states that come up after Iowa and New Hampshire?

[DoveTurnedHawk]

9. 2nd in SC to Edwards

AZ, I recall Clark narrowly leading Lieberman and Dean.
DE, my recollection is Lieberman was ahead, but I could be wrong.
OK, I think Clark was slightly leading, but I'm not positive here.
MO, NM, ND, I don't know of any polls that have been released.

DTH

[CoffeePlease1947]

11. Clark needs to get 3rd in NH and 2nd in South Carolina

He is in third in NH and 2nd in South Carolina. He needs to win Michigan. He only needs to place 5th or 6th in Iowa. He can do that. If Clark wins either NH, SC, or Iowa, he will be the nominee. He would be unstopable.

Clark will move up as Gephardt and Kerry are bounced out of the race.

Mike

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I Am Very Disappointed In Ed Koch

NT