Latest state polls for US Senate Races in 2006--encouraging

[WI_DEM]

This is from the latest Zogby interactive poll, published by the Wall Street Journal, released late last month.

Democratic Incumbents:
New York: Clinton 58%, Pirro 38%
New Mexico: Bingaman: 52%, Wilson 39%
Michigan: Stabenow 53%, Butler 38%
Florida: Nelson 49%, Harris 40% (other polls give Nelson a bigger lead).
Wisconsin: Kohl: 49%, Thompson 46% (Tommy Thompson, I'm almost sure will not run).
Washington: Cantwell: 50%, McGarick: 41%

Republican Incumbents:
Texas: Hutchinson: 55%, Kirk: 38%
Virginia: Allen: 49%, Beyer: 42%
Missouri: Talent: 46%, McCaskill: 46%
Pennsylvania: Casey: 50%, Santorum: 40% (a new Rasmussen poll out today gives Casey a 20-point lead)
Ohio: Hacket: 45%, Dewine: 35%
Nevada: Ensign: 45%, Goodman: 42%
Arizona: Kyl: 52%, Pederson: 42%


Open Seats:
Minnesota: Klobuchar (D): 49%, Kennedy (R): 43%
Maryland: Cardin (D): 50%, Steele (R): 42%
Tennessee: Ford (D): 41%, Bryant (R): 48%
New Jersey: Andrews (D): 37%, Kean (R): 41% (but if Gov-elect Corzine appoints Acting Gov. Cordey to the Senate we have an excellent shot of winning, since Cordey has a 71% approval rating).

Not included in the polls are Rhode Island, where Dems have a shot at beating Chafee and Vermont where Independent Bernie Sanders will probably win and vote with the Democrats.

There is a chance too that Trent Lott will not run again in Mississippi and if Democrat Gene Taylor runs he might have a chance to win this seat.

Summary:
Dems have good shots to pick up these GOP seats:
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Missouri
Tennessee
Nevada
Virginia (Allen's 7-point lead is not impressive)
and possibly Arizona, Kyl's 10-point lead is not overwhelming.

The Republicans have a shot in:
Wisconsin (if Thompson runs)
New Jersey (if Cordey is not the Democratic candidate)
Washington (Cantwell, I think is vulnerable, despite her 9-point lead)
Maryland--an open seat and depends on who the Dems nominate.
Minnesota--another open seat, but I think the Dems ultimately will win this one.

If it's a strong Democratic year like '05 we could see coast to coast victories with Democrats who seem in peril winning and incumbent republicans who are running even or a few points ahead losing. In that case I think it is very possible for the Dems to get the six seats necessary to win back control of the Senate.

My guess right now is that Democrats will win between 4-7 Senate seats in 2006.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash05a.html?project=elections06

[Nikki Stone1]

1. What is up with Cantwell?

Gotta get her numbers up by next year.

[David Dunham]

2. Forget Rhode Island. Chafee will likely win easily.

[WI_DEM]

6. even with a bruising primary?

[m_welby]

15. that seems correct

I know very few people who will vote against chafee just because he's republican.

Rhode Islanders like have a senator from each party for some reason. it has been that way since before Pell was a senator and that isn't likely that will change anytime soon. Well, unless by some miracle laffey wins the primary, then the dem candidate (whitehouse) will win. RI hasn't sent a loony to congress since eddie beard in the '70's, that was embassising enough for everyone.

[eleny]

3. I'm surprised they don't consider Colorado a battleground state

We currently have a Dem and a Repuke in the Senate. Allard isn't going to run again. And our state legislature is now Dem majority. We're a pretty shade of purple these days.

[WI_DEM]

7. Good point, with a strong candidate we could win in Colorado

[rockymountaindem]

8. There are no Senate elections in '06

Udall will likely challenge for Allard's spot in '08.

[eleny]

10. Oh - thanks!

I sure was wishful thinking there.

[Pacifist Patriot]

4. Yep, I saw a poll not too long ago that had Cruella scraping up 30 pts.

No way Katharine Harris will win a senate seat without a little help from her friends at Diebold, ES&S and Sequoia.

[BOSSHOG]

5. Gene Taylor will not run for Lott's seat

He will maintain his secure House Seat and continue to gain seniority. He'd have an uphill battle running against some neanderthal like Pickering. Too many klansmen and rightous religious zealots up north for a good man like Taylor to get elected.

However, Gene would make one fine ass kicking Senator from MS. He's a vet and a big supporter of Vets rights.

[Ediacara]

9. This is missing Montana

Last poll I saw had incumbant Conrad Burns (R) beating both (State Senate President) Jon Tester and (State Auditor) John Morrison by about 10-12 points. Burns is very vulnerable however, and is only leading because of high name recognition. He has very high negatives, and is honestly a senile old racist.

[WI_DEM]

13. I agree, Montana should be on the list too

this is an example of a race that can be won in a good democratic year.

[flamin lib]

11. Recommended.

Good post! Dems are growing spines all over the place. We've got a candidate here in TX against Joe Barton. It's a long shot but at least someone is trying.

http://followmetodc.com

[FreedomAngel82]

12. Looks good!

I hope so too! I live in Tn and would love to have a democratic senator whether Ford or Kurita. Any polls on Congressional seats?

[Deb]

14. Thank you n/t

[unblock]

16. new jersey's acting governor is "codey", not "cordey"

:hi:

it would be interesting if corzine and codey were to swap jobs. half-way there!

[MoonRiver]

17. What have you found regarding Al Franken's chances in MN?

I know he hasn't decided to run, but that decision may well depend on polls.

[rockymountaindem]

18. That race isn't until 2008

n/t

[Clark2008]

19. Another poll has Harold Ford Jr. beating all the Republicans

(NASHVILLE) -- The latest poll for Tennessee's upcoming U.S. Senate race shows Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. leading all rivals in the campaign.

According to the survey taken by Global Strategy Group, Ford leads each of his possible Republican opponents for the November 2006 election. Ford leads failed 2002 Senate contender Ed Bryant 38 percent - 37 percent, failed 2002 gubernatorial nominee Van Hilleary 40 percent - 38 percent and failed 1994 Senate candidate Bob Corker 39 percent - 36 percent.

“I have been conducting survey research in Tennessee for years and the results of this poll, coupled with current national trends, show that Congressman Ford can win, “ said Harrison Hickman, Partner at Global Strategy Group. Harrison Hickman served as senior political advisor recently for U.S. Senator Mark Pryor, when he was elected in 2002 and former U.S. Senator John Edwards, when he was elected in 1998. Hickman’s current clients in Tennessee include 8th District Congressman John Tanner and State Senator Roy Herron – he also served as pollster for former Tennessee Governor Ned McWherter in both of his gubernatorial wins.

http://fordfortennessee.com