The NOAA is getting really good at predicting hurricane paths

[Egalitariat]

They've nailed Wilma's track. And that included a 90 degree right hand turn that I found really hard to believe would actually happen.

But they were spot-on accurate, and have been all year long.

[ClintonTyree]

1. Soon we won't have NOAA to warn us........

we'll have "Accuweather" and other such Companies after Rick Santorum's Senate bill gets approved. He want to "privatize" the weather and in affect, make the American people pay twice for the same information.
Yep, Ricky's bill is being considered now, and if the Senate allows this we'll be at the mercy of the private sector to warn us of approaching storms. If we pay them that is. If we DON'T pay, well..... tough shit for us.
Of course it's nothing but a giveaway to Santorum's campaign contributors, but that's beside the point. Rick's just trying to even the playing field. :eyes:

[Selatius]

2. Hey, this is capitalism. Privatization is more capitalism.

Privatization would naturally go well with capitalist ideology. To be a capitalist is to be in a state of control or ownership over resources for one's private benefit. Instead of having a resource for the people, it now belongs in the hands of a select few people who can levy whatever price they please according to market conditions to make a profit.

You go from non-profit to profit. You go from a system where information is given according to need to a system where information is given according to ability to pay. With the latter, a side effect is that the poorest have the most difficult time paying compared to other people who are more affluent.

[ewagner]

3. NOAA staff

are true professionals.

The folks I know who are associated with NOAA and NWS are real scientists who keep a tight leash on speculation and "wish-casting".

ACCUWEATHER, on the other hand is driven by ratings, profits and personality. God help us if they ever get responsibility for public safety.

[moobu2]

4. You’re right

For the last few years NOAA has been very accurate.

I’ve lived on the Gulf coast most of my life and not to many years ago, it was anyone’s guess where most hurricanes were headed.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Isn't NOAA More A Gatherer Of Information Than An Originator

It seems they sythesize the information accumluated by others...

[Dudley_DUright]

6. No, the national hurricane center also runs their own hurricane model

as well as taking into account other models.



They also run the famous hurricane hunter aircraft program that gives critical information about the intensity of storms.

http://www.aoc.noaa.gov/

On edit: Sen. Bill Nelson just said on Wolf's show that he is going to try to get funding for another hurricane hunter aircraft. NOAA has only one and it is down for maintenance right now. Nelson was actually on a flight earlier this week into Wilma.

[pitohui]

7. don't make me laugh out loud

i'm glad they nailed wilma's track, although they don't actually seem to know exactly where it is going, unfortunately, they had katrina hitting the florida/alabama state line for far too long

they have not in any sense of the word been spot-on accurate all yr long

we have only to look at the twists & turns of katrina or the needless evacuation of houston for rita, causing the loss of 103 lives, to see that prediction of hurricane paths is inexact at best

we need better technology, we need better science

yes, it's getting better all the time but "spot-on accurate" is a pretty cruel joke to the 23 old folks evacuated on the magical exploding bus out of houston that could have just as well stayed at home

i'm guessing you live outside the zone, what looks "accurate" to someone out of harm's way looks quite different when you're in the path of destruction

our prediction technology is still in need of serious, serious, serious improvement

[WindChill]

10. Exactly right

As one of the Houston "evacuees" I can tell you that when I got on the road Wednesday afternoon, Rita was projected to hit Matagorda Bay well south of Houston. In the next day and a half while I crawled toward La Grange (33 hours for what is normally less than three hours) the projections changed -- moving north so that at one point it was supposed to come right up Galveston Bay to where it finally made landfall around the Texas/Louisiana border.

I'd also add that the six models shown on the NOAA site that Wednesday were in almost total agreement.

[sleipnir]

8. I hate to burst your bubble, but....

Very late Summer and Autumn Hurricanes are pretty easy to predict, as any meteorologist will tell you. Also, it's not just NOAA that's doing the research, they basically compile the data from multiple computer models around the world and then make an educated guess as to what will happen.

They have been horribly wrong on several hurricanes this year, most recently with Rita. NOAA was getting it wrong day in and day out, while many independent models showed a more northernly track to the storm.

There's still an average 300 nm margin of error at 36 hours. That's a pretty sizable gap. When we shrink that down, we'll have really moved beyond educated guesses and into accurate prediction.

HOWEVER...Props to the people at NOAA, they really are doing a good job with an amazing and seemingly unpredictable season. Who knows what will happen? They are doing a great job for the majority of the storms.

[Metta]

9. Santorum proposed a bill in the senate to sever public access to NOAA.

They'd have to give info directly to Acu-Weather which is one of his supporters.