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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 05:56 AM
Original message
3 Cat 5 and 2 Cat 4 hurricanes this year
and we have 6 weeks left in the season.

21 named storms.

A superstitious person would put the blame on some supernatural being.

Scientists would be interested in the implications to the idea that we are experiencing climate change on a global basis.
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Cobalt Violet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 06:01 AM
Response to Original message
1. And Fox News blames it on liberal environmentalist.
If only we let them develop the hell out of all our wetlands!
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 06:16 AM
Response to Original message
2. Don't jump to conclusions.
While we are very likely entering a period of catastrophic global climatic change due to human activities, hurricanes appear to have a separate and documented ten year cyclic activity pattern and we are in the midst of the uptick.
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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 06:18 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. True enough, but no uptick in history was this intense
and that's why it is of interest to climatologists. And I do mean "of interest".

Of course, a single season cannot tell the entire story and any conclusions about linkage to climate change will be years away.
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Warren Stupidity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 06:31 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. That's all I meant.
It is too early to blame it on global warming. I happen to think it is possibly even worse - that the coincidence of cyclic uptick combined with GW ocean temperature increases could be one of the non-linear events that the GW folks have been truly worried about.

On the other hand if the greenland ice shelf decides to relocate from land ice to ocean water we will have to stop using 'global warming' as shorthand for catastrophic climate change :-)
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jobycom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 07:22 AM
Response to Reply #3
11. In measurable history, which is not the same thing
Americans seem to believe that the world began with recorded American history and ends with it. We've only been able to track hurricanes the way we do now for a couple of decades. We've only been able to track them in any detail since around the 30s. We don't know how many hurricanes formed in the ocean and vanished in, say 1900. We don't know how many Category 5s formed and fell apart a century ago.

Look at this century. We've had one Category 4 come ashore, and no Cat 5s. In 1900, that's how we'd have measured the storms. No Category 5s, one Category 4 (and they are arguing whether it was really a 3), a very weak Cat 3, and a couple of ones down in Florida.

There's a decades cycle, there may also be a century cycle. Insurers measure "100 year floods" as floods they can expect to hit every 100 years.

The reason I get upset with the automatic jump to climactic change, especially man-made climactic change, is that we don't even know how global warming would affect hurricanes. It's even been theorized that it would weaken them and reduce the frequency of landfall by having them form earlier in the Atlantic and go north into the Atlantic instead of into the Gulf (like the little oddball one that headed to Spain).

In a couple of years we'll have a better idea of what global warming (which I'm not casting doubt on) is doing to hurricanes. This could be a statistical blip, combined with our better measuring skills. This could be the result of climactic changes--man-made or otherwise. We don't know yet.
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Deja Q Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 07:44 AM
Response to Reply #11
14. The key word being 'theorized'.
Until we can control weather, to predict what it's going to do seems a tad pretentious...

Maybe it's not 'global warming'. But I believe the unnatural and excessive pollution has led to global ecological upheaval causing chaotic weather pattens.

Now if cities at the equator have had their average temperatures measurably rise over the last 50 years...
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jobycom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 10:23 AM
Response to Reply #14
22. I believe that, too
My point is when everyone screams "See, this proves global warming," what happens if the next three hurricane seasons are mild? Does that disprove it?

Every time a region gets a heat wave some people scream "Global warming," and every time we get a colder winter, someone else says "See, no global warming." That's not how it works. The ice caps are a better gauge, since they've been melting steadily and progressively for years now. A chart over the last hundred years showing a strengthening trend amongst hurricanes at landfall (which would factor out advantages in measuring hurricanes at sea, which have increased dramatically with satelites and computers) would be a better indication. Looking at one season and saying "Look! Big hurricanes at sea! Must be global warming!" is as scientific as saying "Look! Monkeys have hair! God must have created them separately from humans!"

That's my point. I'm not trying to argue against global warming. But these unscientific methods are going to weaken our case when the natural cycles of hurricanes fade, if we keep linking proof of global warming to these transient trends.
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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #22
23. But see, nobody said, "This proves global warming"
All I said was Scientists would be interested in the implications this has to the idea that there is global climate change. Nothing about it proving anything.
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jobycom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. Oh yeah, a lot of people are saying that. Read this thread
There is a lot of mockery of Bush for claiming GW is not happening based on this hurricane season. You may not have said it, but others are using it to illustrate their beliefs.

And anyway, my first post on this thread was only a response to the claim that this is unprecedented. It's unusual. It does TIE the record set in the thirties (think of what happened to the economy and the climate then--droughts, dust bowl, etc). But even then we didn't have satellite tracking, continuous monitoring, computer models, etc. We don't know for sure that their weren't storms as strong as we've measured this season. No one was flying into the eyes of storms. They weren't monitored and measured the way they are now. That was my first point. So any theory that says this is the worst season in history and it proves some unprecedented climactic change, aren't reliable. We don't know.
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liberal N proud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 06:30 AM
Response to Original message
4. When there is a CAT 4 or 5 storm in December - will they still
deny global warming?
I heard this morning, the last time an October hurricane hit Florida was in 1933.
This is a record storm in so many ways, but No There is no global warming.
This is NO NATURAL CYCLE in the weather folks.
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Ravenseye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 07:05 AM
Response to Reply #4
10. There is no natural cycle
Well yes and no. The El Nino is a pretty well documented cycle, and the local fishermen can tag it back hundreds of years.

The problem I have with them saying this is normal hurricane activity is that it's a pretty specious argument. They say that there was an uptick in hurricanes for what...twenty years or so, then it lulled, and now it's upticking again. See the regular pattern? I don't. What has it been for a hundred years prior to that?

Such a crock. I love when people say "Your evidence isn't scientific, see our evidence?" when theirs isn't scientific. It's high-larious.
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Tennessee Gal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 06:38 AM
Response to Original message
6. People are moving out of Florida in droves.
As a realtor I know that Floridians are getting out of there and moving to Tennessee and other areas. It has been a boom to my area this year. Some people call them halfways. They moved from the north to Florida. And now they are going half way back to the north. Anyway, we are happy to have them here!
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graywarrior Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 06:53 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. I'm out of here as soon as I can.
Thought I could wait til April, but if this thing is a big as they say it is, my house is toast, so I will have no choice but to leave sooner.
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Tennessee Gal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 06:57 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Come on up to Tennessee!
I'd be happy to help you!
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graywarrior Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 07:47 AM
Response to Reply #8
15. Thank you. I really appreciate that.
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Tsiyu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:34 AM
Response to Reply #8
17. Just had Floridians buy the property across the street
It seems no one properly educated them about life in the Tennesssee backwoods. Could you help new arrivals to Tennessee by passing along the following?:

1. If you buy property in the woods, do not leave your trash or store food items in bags on the ground. Animals will come make confetti out of the trash and the food WILL NOT be there when you get back and you will royally piss off the neighbors. We don't leave our trash outdoors in the woods. We take it to the dump.

2. This is snake country. Do not let your small children run around in the woods in bare feet.

3. If you buy some land, and then pick up a cheap singlewide to live in while you build, make sure you have some sort of foundation/pad/anchorage for the trailer, make sure your delivery-setup person can actually move the trailer down that teeny path you cleared ( they can't); get your phone, electric and water hookups sorted out BEFORE you bring the trailer along, and DO SOME RESEARCH about what you will actually need before you move in. That way, your trailer doesn't sit by the side of the road while you figure out what to do.

4. Do not put up a dozen neon, tacky "No Trespassing signs" along the front of your property that only your neighbors- who have no interest in trespassing - can see. The trespassers show up in four-wheelers on the BACKSIDE of your property. THAT'S where you put the signs.

A lot of folks are buying land up here and they have no clue what the hell they are doing. If you are moving to a rural area in Tennessee, it is a vastly different lifestyle from an urban or suburban area in FLorida. I've lived in both places, not just talkng out of my ass. I welcome anyone who has common sense, and I hate to inject this commentary in this thread, but real estate agents could go a long way toward bridging the local/transplant gap.

It seems many agents are selling property willy-nilly to clueless folks who want to "get back to the land" and then after the agents collect their commissions, these clueless folks become MY problem. And I don't get a dime for the aggravation.

*rantover*
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:40 AM
Response to Reply #17
18. OMG I just have to say ... (sorry Walt Starr) I love your avatar!
I don't know what my family in FL intend to do, but I hope they are moving fast as predictions are it's headed straight for them!
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Tsiyu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 09:03 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. Thanks, and Walt is cool, I hope
he's still eating all them homegrown 'maters he grew this summer, I bet!

:hi: Hi, Walt!
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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 09:05 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. Plants are still producing...
as well as the peppers.

I'm waiting for the first frost so I can harvest my Brussels Sprouts!

:hi:
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Tsiyu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #20
26. Brat! Seriously, lucky (and green-thumbed) you.
I had to lean on gardening friends this year. We got a few tomatoes and peppers, but once the chickens discovered them, our almost-ready- to-pick tomatoes disappeared one by one....makes me feel not an ounce guilty for anticipating the rooster roast we're gearing up for...I know them chickens got plenty of bugs and organic produce!
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nonconformist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 07:30 AM
Response to Reply #6
13. I am so glad my family moved from Florida
My grandfather, who is profoundly disabled was living in Florida with my uncle (his son and caretaker) until they decided to move to Michigan in 2003 to be closer to other family members after some additional health complications. My uncle doesn't drive and they live on a fixed income... I was always so worried about them during hurricane season. I'd be a mess if they were still there. :(
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DanCa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 07:01 AM
Response to Original message
9. Has our "Esteemed" Commander in Chimp changed his mind on
global warming yet or does he feel that god is just liberating the water?
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Jacobin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 07:28 AM
Response to Original message
12. We are at the start of a heightened 1500 year storm cycle
A scientist did core samples along the gulf coast several years back and found that he could determine from storm surge debris the frequency of hurricanes over the millenia.

We are now entering a new 1500 year cycle of heightened hurricane activity.

Was on the Discovery Channel a few years ago. I need to find the study. Didn't think much of it when I saw it, but it bears looking at more closely now
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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 08:03 AM
Response to Reply #12
16. That's VERY interesting
IF we are indeed in the beginning of a 1500 year cycle and we are experiencing an uptick in intensity due to global climate change, the next few decades could get to be a bumpy ride indeed!
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spanone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 09:05 AM
Response to Original message
21. One word for our stupid president.....KYOTO
dumb mo fo
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geomon666 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-19-05 12:31 PM
Response to Original message
25. How many CAT 5's hit land?
0

How many CAT 4's hit land? Possibly 1.
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