What my Doctor said today about the bird virus

[William769]

I had called him after seeing all the news and was worried out of my mind ( I happen to be in a high risk group). This is what he said paraphrasing here "that S.O.B (meaning Bush) is trying to scare Americans into submission for his own little games." He also said that it is not an airborne virus that if you wash your hands on a regular basis (after touching things from other people) thats half the battle.

I put alot of faith in my Doctor (he's been my doctor for years). I think I'll sleep a little better tonight.

[StellaBlue]

1. Thanks for sharing this.

My ex and I were really concerned about this when I was living in the UK over the past 12 months or so...

I have mixed feelings, but your post made me feel better.

[converted_democrat]

2. That is reassuring, thank you.n/t

[Radio_Lady]

3. What kind of a doctor is he? Specialize in infectious diseases --

or a general practitioner?

[William769]

8. infectious diseases

He is my HIV doctor.

[Radio_Lady]

25. OK. Hope he knows more than the people who are treating me.

We're flying to Hawaii, closer to Asia, ages over 65, and we can't even get our REGULAR flu shots yet.

Lots of Luck....

[triguy46]

46. Only high risk individuals ...

are getting flu shots before 10-24, per CDC guidance. Now that said, its a guidance, not law. Expect some problems if your usual source of flu vaccine did NOT order from sanofi pasteur (aventis) last year. They are taking care of their past customers first.

[Radio_Lady]

52. Safeway stores here in Oregon have the shots available NOW.

Go figure. My HMO can't or won't give me the shot until 10/15/05 -- when I'm already on vacation.

[napi21]

120. Do you have Kroger grocery stores in your area?

I live in Ga. but I thought Kroger stores were national. If you do, contact them. All their stores are doing flu shots on a schedule by store location. They started yesterday and have a schedule posted on the net by location.

My husband works for a competitor grocery chain, and they also are doing the flu shots.

Cost is $25.00.

[Radio_Lady]

138. Kroger owns the Fred Meyer stores in Oregon. I'll have to check on

the vaccine availability. Thanks for the suggestion, napi21!

[hedgehog]

97. Is the focus on avian flu meant to distract us from the vaccine shortage

for this year's flu? I have a family of asthmatics and elderly parents so you better believe I get everyone immunized every year.

[leesa]

134. No. It's meant to introduce military control.

[Pretty_in_CodePink]

99. Really two supermarkets by my home in Orlando have them

I don't get them as I rarely get sick.

[DoYouEverWonder]

4. Sounds like a good doctor

This is the same crap that Bush pulled with Smallpox after 9-11. A total disinformation campaign which should be added to his treason charges.

[Cha]

101. That's right..I was just sitting here

trying to think of what it was he came out with a few years ago.

Do they really think people are gonna buy this crock of shit?

[Lex]

5. Bush and the Right Wingers are keeping in power by ruling with FEAR.

FEAR, FEAR, FEAR.

Why, if you watch Fox News, it's ALL ABOUT scaring the beejesus out of you.

[dogfacedboy]

17. Because fear is the cornerstone

of Conservatism. They are fearful people, therefore they transfer that characteristic onto everyone else, especially the dumb ones.

[Lex]

21. And I think conservatives crave having all the rules made FOR them

and all the decision-making left up to someone else--God or Bush, it doesn't matter to them.

They really have little to no critical-thinking skills, so I think that's why they like to have a "Daddy"-like figure in their lives setting out all the rules for them.

Sad, really.

[Blue Belle]

6. What constitutes being in a "High Risk" group??

I admit I haven't read a lot on the subject, but I did watch the Nightline peice, and it does raise concern.

[William769]

11. People with a low immune system.

[bergamot]

72. Also diabetics.

At least, that's the reason I was able to get a flu shot from my doctor early last season.

In other years, high risk also meant seniors and people with respiratory ailments. The guidelines might change again this year.

[Freddie Stubbs]

16. This kid is probaby at high risk

[Blue Belle]

24. :-)

:+

[Der Blaue Engel]

78. Gak! What is Donald doing?!?

Costumed cartoon characters always scared me...now I know why! (Plus, I HATE cartoon ducks. Except Daffy...when he has his beak slapped off by his wife.)

[Kailassa]

79. You can tell from the crossed eyes

and sagging jaw that he's up to something.

[chopper]

133. another one...

[caligirl]

18. High risk is someone with certain chronic

medical conditions or their on chem or antirejection drugs, very young children, those over 65. So asthma, diabetes, and certain other diseases as specified by the medical community.

[triguy46]

49. here's a short list

65 or older
pregnant
taking care of child who is younger than 6 months
health care worker providing hands on direct care
immunosuppressed (from disease, HIV/AIDS, cancer or cancer therapy, or
ongoing steroid use)
Underlying chronic diseases such as heart, lung, kidney,metabolic disease like diabetes.

That covers most of them.

[hedgehog]

100. The best protection is to vaccinate the people around the

person who is high risk as well. The vaccine isn't 100% effective especially for older people so the idea is to prevent the flu from getting into the home.

By the way - you can not get the flu from the vaccine.

[stickdog]

125. Bullshit.

You can get the flu and a lot worse. Please list the ingredients in the vaccine you are talking about.

[shraby]

7. Go to google news and put bird flu in the

search. When it comes up, click on "sort by date" in the right hand corner and you can keep up to date on the bird flu. I watched it last year as it spread all across Asia.

[The Doctor.]

9. A little unprofessional, but otherwise ethical.

Sounds like you have a good Doctor, I would be concerned were the shoe on the other foot though.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

10. handi-wipes, as stated by my GP are a godsend

Become a Monk. use them, live longer, healthier and with lower risk of flu.

[displacedtexan]

12. My physician is a tropical med. expert from Johns Hopkins.

He's the go-to guy in Baltimore if you need shots for exotic traveling, pick up a nasty disease or rash (which is what led me to him-- a rash,, that is), or have serious allergic reactions to meds.

He says the regular flu shot will cost $127 this year, and there aren't even half enough doses for those who need them the most.

As for the Bird Flu, he just shook his head and said it will be bad.

[Radio_Lady]

26. Wow! Our HMO doesn't have flu shots available until Oct. 15.

We're flying west on vacation to Hawaii four days earlier.

[wiley]

29. I got a flu shot for $75

Just last week.

:patriot:

[triguy46]

51. you got ripped off big time.

Our clinic has purchased 2500 doses at $10.25 per dose. $75 is a fricking crime.

[Dem2theMax]

61. My Mom and Dad live in an 'over 55 years of age' community.

They are getting their flu shots for free. All they have to do is sign up for it. I wonder what gives with the cost?

[KittyWampus]

13. Thanks William And Here's A Hug For The Reassurance You've Offered

:hug:

[William769]

15. Thanks.

:)

[graywarrior]

14. I worked in bacteriology for 10 years. It's all BS. .

CDC on bird flu:


http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm

[buzzard]

19. This is a virus.n/t

[graywarrior]

32. Think bacteriologists don't know anything about viruses?

[buzzard]

35. Didn't mean it to sound that way. n/t

[graywarrior]

39. Don't mind me. I'm a douchebag at times.

:pals:

[buzzard]

87. No, I enjoy your posts.

[kestrel91316]

111. Some people don't understand that those of us who know germs

know all sorts of germs, so to speak.

Bacteria, viruses, fungi, etc. I don't know any schools where your microbiology education doesn't include all three.

BTW, where did you go to school?:hi:

[sable302]

20. I've heard the same thing

Everyone's getting worked up about the next horror. A couple of years ago it was all about asteroids hitting the earth.

It would be awful if millions died from the flu next year, but it's no scarier than any of the other awful things people face every day. The key, I think, is to keep healthy the best you can and to keep your head on straight about it all.

Remember, scary sells.

[Radio_Lady]

27. Good point, sable. I'm going to watch Comedy Central this evening.

I've been crashing with depression over the world situation, including the flu. What's a good diversion?

Have cancelled my dinner plans tonight... can't concentrate.

[CoffeeCat]

41. Asteroids??? That's just GREAT! Don't tell Junior....

If Junior hears that asteroids might hit the Earth, he'll want to sequester everyone in the United States--within a 500 mile-radius---away from the expected asteroid explosion.

And of course--he'll make sure that the military keep us in line--while we're all "quarantined" from the asteroid.

That bastard!

[sable302]

62. he he he

And it's all about us! It's about nature conspiring against America! I say we declare a war on nature.

Oop, we already have!!

[hippywife]

74. And just notice all the

sci-fi alien programming on the new season of TV. Like Carl Sagan said, they trot this shit out whenever they don't want you to pay attention to the really scary shit they are doing. Paraphrasing, of course.

[NNN0LHI]

22. You have a much better chance of dying from being struck by lightning...

...than dying from bird flu. Your doctor is right.

Don

[OldLeftieLawyer]

23. Remember SARS?

Wasn't that a big deal right after we attacked Iraq?

Or am I getting my pandemics mixed up?

[Radio_Lady]

28. SARS proved to be second-rate.

[catmandu57]

31. Cured by chicken soup and sprite

Seriously we've been hearing about bird flu for the last several years, it's only coming out now to scare hell out of people, these bastards use fear as a tool. It's the first thing out of the bag, comes in different sizes like a wrench set, but, one of their favs.

[TechBear_Seattle]

57. Four and five years ago, SARS was the most likely source of a pandemic

Currently, it is avian flu. In a few more years, it will hopefully be something else (because that will mean the pandemic has not yet struck.)

Fact: For centuries, influenza pandemics have occured every generation, about once every 30 years. The last influenza pandemic was in 1968. We are almost a decade overdue for the next one.

Fact: Avian flu has already spread to humans, although it has ended up killing its human hosts too quickly to mutate to an easily contageous human-to-human form. That is because humans have almost no immunity to it.

Fact: All it would take is for one person with an active or semi-active human influenza virus to contract avian flu and live long enough for the two virus to share genetic material, and the pandemic will begin.

Fact: Many animals can contract viruses that are not fatal to them but which are fatal to other animals. More likely than a human starting the pandemic would be for a pig, horse or other animal to contract both a human influenza and the avian influenza and incubate them together long enough to create a human-to-human contageous form of avian flu (many previous human flu pandemics have been traced to this type of source.)

Fact: The threat of an influenza pandemic is very real and acknowledged as imminent by epidemiologists and researchers the world over. That Bush is using this as a political bogey man to rationalize an overt powergrab does not make the threat any less real.

[hedgehog]

102. That Bush is using this as a political bogey man to rationalize an overt p

Bravo! You got it. The worst part is that he's using it as a bogeyman while simultaneously failing to address the problem!

[TechBear_Seattle]

104. Well, duh!

If he were to take meaningful steps towards preparing for the next pandemic, it would be much more difficult to convince people that martial law was an "unfortunate but necessary evil."

I have no doubt at all that every dose of any potential vaccine is already reserved for rich white political patrons. The government vaccine list, when assembled, will be indistinguishable from the list of GOP donors, ordered in descending amount of contributions since 1998.

[youthere]

94. SARS and West-Nile virus both a lot of hoopla.

[JanusAscending]

30. COME ON GUYS!!

This belongs on the greatest page!! There are a lot of folks out there worried sick over this, especially after the report from a "Doctor"? on CNN this afternoon!!! I knew the minute they started talking about it that this was a ROVE ploy to keep Americans scared out of their wits, and taking our eyes off of the PRIZE!!! Please kick this and vote it up all you who have responded. I DID!!:kick:

[Carni]

90. Did it occur to them...this doesn't inspire people to pay their bills?

This the sky is falling shit has been going on now since 911--I used to fall asleep worrying about paying my bills, but with each new transgression it's kind of like *who the hell cares?*

I wonder if these neo-con a-holes at the top realize that sooner or later if we all reach overload THEY won't have a source of income to suck off of...has this ever occurred to them?

Obviously not--

[MuseRider]

33. Thanks.

I have not spoken to my doctor yet but he is an infectious disease guy and usually just shakes his head at these kinds of things although he does realize that someday it will happen.

I am also in the high risk group but because I am not elderly I was unable to get the flu shot last year. I hope there is enough left this year because I really worried about it.

We should all be washing our hands better and more often and that is very good advice. Sleep well, one thing I do know for certain is that worry over something like this will not help your immune system.

[Radio_Lady]

37. Only 25% of men wash their hands after using the bathroom.

I even mentioned it to my husband. He said he rarely washes his hands after urinating. I said, "That's disgusting!"

But here's something interesting. He said when he goes in a men's room, he doesn't touch anything else but himself (remember, women, they have urinals with no doors, etc., and don't even use paper, so they really CAN go in without touching anything)...

However, I still asked him to wash his hands after every toilet use. The door to the toilet could be contaminated with who-knows-what... although at the movie theaters and the gym we go to, there are no doors to the men's or women's room.

[MuseRider]

40. Ewwwww

just ewwwwwwww :puke:

I never asked my husband and now I am afraid to.

[triguy46]

53. fewer than that in oklahoma

soap of course is optional.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

77. as is the water.

(SORRY!) :)

[BrotherBuzz]

55. Real men wash before and after...

before, to protect ourselves (I know where my friend has been, my hands are another matter), and after, as a courtesy to others.

[CrispyQ]

60. Carlin says it's a good way to build up your immune system.

lol

[knitter4democracy]

34. That's not exactly what the ID and internist guys are saying here.

No one here that I know if thinks it'll all be fine if we wash our hands enough, and we really don't know if it'll mutate into a more deadly pathogen and become an airborne issue.

My hubby's an internist here who keeps up on infectious disease (he almost went into it), and he's really, really worried. He knows our town will have a really difficult time handling an epidemic, as the regular flu season stresses the system every year.

[esvhicl]

36. Yes, could be a "game"

A deadly game. I think it's a really smart way for the fascists to set up martial law, by whipping up everyone into a frenzy over this and then having a phony "flu" outbreak.

Excpect SF, NY and LA to have outbreaks first.

[NJCher]

96. just tonight

I heard on the radio that bush said "we need to be thinking about" what will be done about avian bird flu AND that he thinks the military should be deployed in the event of an outbreak.

What is the military going to be able to do about a freaking outbreak?

These guys are salivating at the mouth over the prospect of a military regime. It's sick.

Cher

[Radio_Lady]

139. Sending in the military makes THEIR risk of getting flu HIGHER...

The same would be true of "first responders" -- whether medical or military.

This was not an original thought. One of the newscasters on cable TV brought this up in a discussion. Dr. Sanjay Gupta did an analysis last night, too. I'm not going to worry about it right now.

[kestrel91316]

113. Well, seeing as I'm in LA I will have a front row seat and can keep all

of you folks informed.

'Til the bug kills me, that is. LOL

[tavalon]

38. You do need to not get freaked out about this

You're doctor told you a falsehood though. All flus are airborne though the droplets are large and sink fast but last a while on surfaces, hence the reason handwashing is so important.

[TalkingDog]

64. the Dr. was correct. This virus has NOT mutated to the point of being

spread via droplets. So far it can only be spread via direct contact with an infected animal or an infected human. The FEAR is that it will mutate into a form that is easily transmitted by all of these means, droplets (from coughing or sneezing), direct contact and from contact with surfaces which carry a still-living version of the virus.

My source is an epidemiologist on a news program that was speaking on this very topic. Sorry no link.

[tavalon]

67. Right now, yes

I thought we were talking about the inevitable pandemic.

My bad.

[Maine-ah]

42. I'm waiting for Frist to say

"you can get it from LOOKING at a bird"
:rofl:

[Mojorabbit]

43. I find this hard to believe

The best infectious disease docs in the world are worried sick about this. My hubby is in family practice and in general staff meetings they are discussing the best way to handle the crisis when it hits.

Also, this kind of flu is not like normal flu. It hits people in their prime the worst instead of the old and children like regular flu. It causes a cytokine storm which makes your immune system over react and attack your body esp lungs to kill you. People in their prime have the healthiest immune systems. Do some research on your own. I can't believe a doc would say it is all BS. Every country in the world is preparing for this.

[kestrel91316]

114. (Wondering what a person can take to pre-empt a cytokine storm.....)

[stickdog]

126. Avian flu is not contagious via human transmission.

There have been less than ten total SUSPECTED (and, AFAIK, no confirmed) cases of human to human transmission in the entire history of avian flu.

Unless somebody has already spliced together a highly humanly contagious version, what's with all of this "sky is falling" rhetoric?

Why are the MSM and their "experts" acting like the random sequence of genetic mutations necessary to give these virii the traits necessary to spread from casual human contact is already a FAIT ACCOMPLI?

[TechBear_Seattle]

44. Unless National Geographic has become a GOP organ....

You might want to look at the October, 2005 issue. The cover article is titled "The Next Killer Flu: Can We Stop It?" It quotes sources from outside the United States (and, hopefully, outside of the control of the US Government.) While Avian Flu has not (yet?) become human-to-human transmissible, it is transmissible from animal to human, and epidemiologists the world over say it is only a matter of time before it becomes h2h. The few human cases that have occured show that humans have almost no immunity to it. According to the NG article, if Avian Flu were to become h2h this winter, and was as contageous as most human influenza viruses, it would spread to every major city in the planet within 180 days and would likely kill between 180 million and 360 million people within that time. The last major flu pandemic, in 1968, took 342 days to circle the planet. The most deadly flu pandemic, in 1918-19, took between 50 million and 100 million lives (the true number can only be estimated because of poor recordkeeping at the time, and the way the disease struck the healthy adults who would have been the recordkeepers.)

The threat from a global influenza pandemic is very real. Avian flu is nothing more than the current contender for that pandemic.

[triguy46]

IF< IF

[truedelphi]

65. A remarkable cure for flu & Also National Geographic

A substance whose use Timothy Leary was noted for advocating
simply demolishes a flu bug's ability to render you sick from said virus.

Of course, remember, I know all of you are law abiding and would not even think of ridding yoruselves of the pain, aches, misery, vomit et al of the flu by trying an illegal substance, so I am probably talking to the wrong crowd, right?

The only downside is you have to have the substance at hand, and you have to realize that you have the flu. Then, if of course you happen to be a non-law abiding snake in the grass commie who probably also smokes some weed or other, go ahead and F*** with Mother Nature and take this rememdy. Within 90 minutes - ALL gone! And since you may have called in sick already, sit back and watch the lightshow.

As for National Geographic, they seem definitely influenced by the right wing. At least some of their staffwrtiers have a right wing bent. Read their recent article on stem cells - they make NO notice of the fact that the sixteen or seventeen BUSH approved stem cell lines are rather contaminated.

Carol

[clichemoth]

86. Well, I guess I'm safe for the next few hours . . .

I'm tripping balls right now. My keyboard didn't have independent LEDs on each key before . . .

You know, big pharma could make a killing off of this and distract everyone from the latest Bushco scheme at the same time. One part Cipromania, one part MK-ULTRA. :) "Just take two of these, watch some fair and balanced news, and you'll be perfectly fine"

[kestrel91316]

115. This recommendation is criminally irresponsible.

[stickdog]

127. That's alarmist disinfo, IMHO.

There have been less than ten total SUSPECTED (and, AFAIK, no confirmed) cases of human to human transmission in the entire history of avian flu.

Unless somebody has already spliced together a highly humanly contagious version, what's with all of this "sky is falling" rhetoric?

Why are the MSM and their "experts" acting like the random sequence of genetic mutations necessary to give these virii the traits necessary to spread from casual human contact is already a FAIT ACCOMPLI?

Yes, it's POSSIBLE that some strains of the avian flu virus will mutate and become contagious via human to human transmission at some point in the future. IF the avian flu becomes highly contagious via casual human contact, it could potentially wipe out tens of millions of Asians. But it's highly doubtful that 1,000 people living in the USA will be infected before millions in Asia are, so we should have enough of a head start to develop and distribute vaccines and anti-virals to combat this POTENTIALLY serious, but not yet EXISTENT health issue.

[CoffeeCat]

45. I have a question about what your doctor said....

I thank you so much for your input--and for sharing what your doctor said.

I have some questions about what he said.

How do we know that bird flu isn't air borne? I might be mistaken, but I thought the transmission mode of some human cases was unknown. Some people who came down with bird flu ingested duck blood, but I thought some were cases where they did not touch or ingest the birds. I could be remembering this wrong, so please correct me if I am mistaken.

Also--isn't bird flu still mutating--and isn't the mutated form what everyone is worried about? Currently, the virus passes from bird-->human. However, aren't most researchers worried about the virus mutating in a way that would allow it to jump from human--->human? And how do we know that this mutated form wouldn't be air borne?

Thanks for any insight that you, or anyone else, may have.

If this is a hoax--then I do want to know. HOwever, much of what I've read (from DU and links from DU) indicate that many scientists, researchers and other health experts are taking this VERY seriously.

Could it be that Junior is taking a very serious threat and capitalizing on it--as opposed to manufacturing a threat? Non-US media seems to be very concerned and upset that the US hasn't done more.

Do you want to know what I think (and of course this is just my opinion). I believe that bird flu is a very serious, potentially mind-blowing threat. Bush never cared about this threat until he saw the flu as an opportunity to take away our freedoms and spread fascism into the United States. I don't see him doing anything about bird flu. Where are all of the inoculations, if he is so concerned? Where's the public information campaign about what to do and how to survive?

He only seems concerned about using bird flu to scare the hell out of us--just like he does with the terrorists.

I hope we can continue to have an open dialog about this...

[William769]

47. I cannot give you anymore information

Thats all he gave me. But with my immune system & the care he has given me over the years, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

His name is Dr. Jeffery Beal and is rated #3 in the nation for the treatment of HIV. He resides in Hendy County Florida.

[triguy46]

59. the bird to human vector is very, very limited.

REview the WHO and CDC site for a rundown on how few cases there are. Then, we have to get the much feared mutuation that will allow for human to human transmission.

Or are we convinced that the CDC has been gutted and is part of a GOP conspiracy? I suggest that their is a significant but small risk at this time, but by ramping up fear, then bush can do all kinds of unpleasant thing. In the absence of science behind him, all he can do is try to scare us.

Lets keep focused. We have a country where we have allowed health care to be a privilege and we cannot care for routine flu, let alone a mutant variation. People die from flu many times because they don't have access to primary care. By being able to see and discuss this with a doctor, you are among the privileged. 40,000,000 don't have that. Lets focus on that as a real opportunity for change. If the shit hits the fan, hell we're prob all gonna be toast.

[Piperay]

48. Your doctor is on point

I have read other experts who say the same thing. It is chimp's plan to get us focused on that instead the deeds in his misadministration and to help bring in bucks for the pharmacy industry.

[johannes1984]

50. you're all safe ,

H5N1 the bird flu virus hasn't even mutated to a human to human virus yet ....you have to be in direct contact with infected poultry to receive it .Only when the virus mutates to a human to human influenza does it pose a threat to the western world .....when it does ....and trust me on this .....you'll know it ....because the numbers will be scary .

It's not airborne like the good doctor said ....

As we all know the american media are ....well let's just say not proporionate in their coverage of important stories ....so here's a good source on how it's hanging with the bird flu

http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/

[kestrel91316]

117. IIRC, there have been a few cases of suspected human-to-human

transmission within family groups living together, but the virus still kills too quickly to propagate in the population, and also it may be weakening after a single passage, to where it can't pass further?

[trekbiker]

54. your Doc is right about the present state of this flu virus...

Right now it is fairly hard to catch, physical contact between infected birds and humans. I'm no expert but my understanding is that the risk is that this virus mutates and gains the ability for human to human transmission like a regular flu virus. If that happens and it retains it present level of lethality (nearly 100%) we could be looking at a repeat of the 1918 pandemic that killed 40 million people over a two year period(more than all of WWI and more than any plague or natural disaster in history)

it is not impossible that another pandemic like 1918 could happen. This isnt just Bush Neocon spin or a Rovian plot. But I wont get worried about it until I hear from reliable sources that it has made the jump to human to human transmission.

[Mojorabbit]

63. There is an outbreak in Indonesia

Several people got it visiting a zoo. Not a whole lot of info coming out of there right now but there are clusters there. I think this is the place to watch for now.

[TechBear_Seattle]

69. Much, much worse than the 1918 pandemic

That one killed between 50 million and 100 million people (the variance is because of the Spanish Flu's tendency to kill healthy adults, ie the very people who would normally have been the record keepers) and took more than a year to circle the globe. Current estimates are that a pandemic with somewhat less of a fatality of the Avian Flu (giving it enough time in the body to become pandemic) would kill between 180 million and 360 million people, and circle the globe in less than 180 days, barely enough time to manufacture vaccine for the last two or three cities hit. To add some more statistics, the last major influenza pandemic, the Hong Kong flu in 1968, killed about 750,000 people and took 342 days to circle the planet.

Added: Stats taken from the October 2005 issue of National Geographics, cover article "The Next Killer Flu."

[NNN0LHI]

76. Most of those people didn't die from the flu

Most of them died from pneumonia which is treatable by antibiotics. The antibacterial effect of penicillin wasn't discovered until 1929.

Don

[kestrel91316]

118. They died far too quickly, most of them, to have gotten secondary

bacterial pneumonia. Most did in fact die as a direct result of the virus. Some, within a day of becoming ill. Bacterial pneumonia, of course, was and will again be a problem to contend with, just as it always is with flu.

[NNN0LHI]

131. Are you claiming to be more astute on this subject than this author?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6315717/site/newsweek/%20

<snip>The worst by far was in 1918, when at least 20 million people died. It was called the "Spanish flu," but a new book by John M. Barry, "The Great Influenza," argues that it actually emerged in rural Kansas, a place where, as in parts of present-day Asia, people lived in close proximity to domestic fowl and pigs.

The 1918 flu—variant H1N1—spread with terrifying speed; in six days at a single Army base, Barry writes, the hospital census went from 610 to more than 4,000. It killed with devastating swiftness: pedestrians literally collapsed in the street; people woke up healthy and were dead by nightfall. It attacked multiple organs in the body, but always the respiratory system first, laying waste to the defenses by which the body keeps pathogens out of the lungs. Most victims succumbed to a secondary infection of bacterial pneumonia, for which there was no treatment in 1918. But in other cases, the virus was fatal in itself. Multiplying explosively throughout the respiratory tract, it provoked an immune response so furious that it devastated the lung's delicate tissues. And it was those deaths that explained H1N1's unique terror. Influenza typically kills the very young and the old, whose immune systems are too weak to fight it off, but Spanish flu killed young men and women in the prime of life.

[nadinbrzezinski]

123. Accordign to the WHO we may be looking all the way to

a billion.., but that is THE WORST CASE SCENARIO... I need to emphasize this, it is the WORST CASE SCENARIO

[dbonds]

56. Anyone else see his press conference?

I was sitting there almost impressed that he seemed to take a random question from a reporter and talk coherently about the subject while suggesting we need to have military quarantine if it happens. Okay, bop me over the head. Took me a little thinking to go duh, that had to be planned and rehearsed.

[kestrel91316]

119. Not only planned and rehearsed, but it sounded like he was stopping

periodically to listen to the feed from Rove in the other room into the wire in his ear.

[Shakespeare]

58. The dengue fever killed 11 times more people than avian flu last year. n/t

[TechBear_Seattle]

68. Dengue fever does not spread human-to-human

It requires a mosquito carrier, Aedes aegypti. A mosquito repellant is very effective as a preventative measure, and regions in which dengue fever occur have greatly decreased the occurance of the disease (along with the occurance of malaria and other mosquito borne illnesses) by minimizing mosquito habitats. Also, dengue fever itself is rarely fatal; mortality comes from leaving the high fever and dehydration untreated. The use of antipyretics (things that bring down a fever) and maintenance of hydration make dengue fever very surviveable.

You must remember that the worry about avian flu is not that it is human to human transmissible, but that there is a very real chance that it could become human to human transmissible. There are documented cases of animal to human transmission, and it is known that humans have very little natural immunity to that configuration of the influenza virus. Avian flu is merely the latest candidate for the next -- and overdue -- killer influenza pandemic that has historically occured every 30 years or so.

[Shakespeare]

81. Wasn't my point, and yes, I know that. n/t

[Silverhair]

71. In 1918 flu killed 675,000 Americans in only a few months.

Dengue fever has NEVER done anything like that.

The concern over the bird flu is no about how many it is killing now, but over how many it will be able to kill when it makes the mutation to an H-H form.

But I guess that is too obvious for you to be able to understand.

[Shakespeare]

75. Sigh. I think you misunderstand me.

From what I've read, the current form of the virus that may or may not make it into North America has never been recorded as being passed from bird to human, so hysteria is a tad premature. That's not to say that preparation shouldn't be undertaken in case a mutation occurs, but the sensationalism of this has, I think, crossed a line. Much like the anthrax scare, you now have people going out and "freelancing" their own treatment by stockpiling the only drugs known to help (remember the crazed hoarding of Cipro four years ago?). This is not a good thing, as I'm sure you understand.

Should we be concerned? Of course. Should our government and healthcare industry be better prepared? Of course. But the "boo" tactics of most of the news stories these past few weeks do more to frighten than they do to inform. Frankly, there are nastier, more frightening viruses out there that pose just as big--if not bigger--threat than avian flu, and we're not prepared for any of those, either.

[Silverhair]

83. That form is not the one of concern.

There IS a form that HAS passed from bird to human with high lethality. It has made a few H-H jumps, but it still isn't highly contagious. If that form mutates to a high H-H form, and retains it's lethality, it will be here very quickly due to the interconnectedness of today's humanity. (Spreads in local population, business traveler takes it to Hanoi, American businessman catches it, he gives it to everyone on the airplane and many in the air terminals. 72 hours later it is worldwide.)

The 1918 flu started in Russell, Kansas, USA, and rapidly (Rapid for those days of steamship travel) spread worldwide.

[Silverhair]

66. You doctor should NOT mix politics with medical advice.

His medical advice is correct. But saying that it is all a phony Bush scare plot is wrong!!!!

For over almost a year, here on DU there have been some very serious discussions about Avian Flu. The World Health Organization, part of the UN, is worried that it could kill 1,000,000,000 (One BILLION)people if it mutates to a H-H form and keeps it's current lethality. Last time I checked the UN was NOT part of the Bush administration.

National Geographic and Scientific American have done articles about Avian Flu. Are those magazines part of the Bush team?

DU has had many posters criticizing Bush for NOT doing anything to prepare the nation for such an event. Now he finally mentions it and some posters start saying that it just something he is trying to whip up fear over? Good Grief - He almost a year late in even mentioning it. Here in Dallas, and other cities, the city gov't has already started making plans for what to do if it does happen.

[jbnow]

85. Bush didn't help at all

He didn't say "we are pouring money into research and development" or "we are mass manufacturing protective masks and gloves to distribute everywhere". He smirked and shrugged and said sorry we can't do much, manufacturing pipeline isn't open enough but we'll have the military keeping people quarantined.
Sick people? Towns where people get sick. OK, let's say a few people have it, your family doesn't. Sorry, guns are pointed, no one is leaving.

That's the plan he is considering? Do you feel safer?

[Silverhair]

88. Of course not. You missed my point.

My point, which I think was abundantly clear, was that it is NOT just a big scare plot by W.

The threat posed by Avian Flu is extremely real.

Saying that it is all just a scare job by W is silly.

[jbnow]

103. I did not miss your point

You are right that the Avian flu is a real thread.

But all bush did with it was use it as a scare job. Your post had said "Now he finally mentions it and some posters start saying that it just something he is trying to whip up fear over?"

Yes, that is all he really did, whip up fear, just make it scarier.

Not scaring us would be some of the proactive things he could say they are planning and doing.
Scaring us would be what he said...if it comes all we have is the military to quarantine you sick guys.

Perhaps you missed my point or perhaps I wasn't clear enough. I do not dismiss the threat but I do deny that bush did any good with what he said.

[Silverhair]

106. It did sound as if you were dismissive of the threat.

Of course W will try to take advantage of it. That is a given. But it sounds like suddenly some people are trying to say the Avian Flu is not a threat at all but a new scare campaign. I find that maddening.

Glad to know that you do understand that the threat is real.

[mrdmk]

109. The big deal about Mr. Bush Jr. here is using the MILITARY not science

to combat the epidemic. Mr. Bush Jr. does have the power to make flu shots available to all citizens in hopes of nipping the problem in the bud, but NO, Mr. Bush wants american citizens under gun point at his discretion, get it!

[jbnow]

128. You're right.

There are two threats. The threat of flu is real.

The threat if bush gets this power is certain. Certain.

Real event. 9-11. Fear.
Patriot Act

Faux non-events. Evil Saddam, WMD. Fear
War(like) Act

Real event (hurricanes) and real threat, pandemic. Fear.
Wants military control act.

After 9/11 90%+ approval
After moving toward war 60%+ approval.
Now 30%+ approval. Will we finally say HELL NO?

[mainer]

70. I respectfully disagree. And yes, mine is a medical family.

The bird flu is not currently capable of causing a pandemic. But within a few mutations, it could happen, and when and if it does, we truly are talking about 25 million deaths or more. For some months, we have been receiving bulletins from Harvard public health sources, CDC, and other scientific sources.

Handwashing is not enough to protect you from an airborne virus. It will help, yes. But it is not enough.

If the pandemic comes, our advice is the same as given on another post on DU. Stock up on supplies and stay home. States should immediately close schools and stop all public assembly.

[Mojorabbit]

73. Some sites to research and follow updates on this flu

http://fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Consequences.PandemicPreparednessGuides
http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/
http://www.node707.com/

[Mojorabbit]

130. more sites

http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html
http://newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?name=Bird+Flu
http://influenzapandemic.blogspot.com/

[Window]

80. Thank you so much for sharing.

I, too, am in a high-risk group.

Peace

[CountAllVotes]

82. thanks for the info.

I've got some health problems myself. I've been fearing a pandemic. Sounds like you've got yourself a good doctor that isn't afraid to tell you the reality.

Take care of yourself! :D

CountAllVotes

[Debi]

84. I thought we were all supposed to die last year because of the lack of

vaccine for the flu. And then, since no one thought they could get a flu shot there was an abundance of the vaccine (instead of a shortage) and yet we're all still alive!

So, now the bird flu is here and we don't have enough vaccine so we're all going to die again.

Thank goodness we have this to talk about instead of:

Tom Delay
Iraq
New Orleans/Katrina/FEMA
The presidents continued 43% approval rating
The housing bubble starting to implode
STILL no health insurance for our working poor

Nope, we need to talk about the Military enacting a mass quarantine every time the flu MAY be lurking (or every time the president receives bad news).

Gee, I wonder if we'll raise the terror alert color any time soon?????

[Silverhair]

122. No, the Bird Flu has NOT yet mutated to an easily H-H form.

Is is not here yet. Everybody is holding their breath waiting for it's mutated form to develop. Nobody knows when or where that will be.

When it does mutate to a H-H form, if it retains it current human lethality, (70% of those infected die) then humanity is in BIG trouble.

In 1918 flu killed 675,000 Americans in only a few months time, from a population of 100 Million.

Nobody on earth has any immunity to it. From prior exposure to similar flus we all have some level of resistance to the ordinary flus. So when it make the H-H mutation, it will be extremely contagious, more so than the regular flu.

[pitohui]

89. good for you for checking this info

i've tried to post the same a time or two but ppl really need to hear it from their DOCTORS

[satya]

91. Maybe "avian flu" is the cover story for a little homegrown bioterror.

Otherwise, we might start getting suspicious when people start dropping dead all over the world. Now, we'll just blame it on the flu. I think that these tyrants are capable of anything, including ethnic/philosophical/economic cleansing of this magnitude.

Not to say that it couldn't happen naturally (and I understand pandemics are cyclical), but I'm just saying...

[Silverhair]

108. No, you are hoping for a tinfoil hat explanation.

If you can find a tinfoil hat reason, then you can hope for a political solution if you can only get rid of the "bad guys". If the problem is nature, then the magnitude and the politics of the problem changes. You have more trouble blaming it on the "bad guys" if it is something that is beyond politics.

The flu virus doesn't give a damn about anybody's politics. And despite all of the medical knowledge gained since 1918, we still don't have all the tools needed to fight a pandemic of nature. Flu has lots of tricks that we still don't know.

[satya]

112. Of course I know you're right-I don't fear "terrorist" attacks but disease

...well now, that's a whole new ballgame. Pardon my lapse into magical thinking; I do know better.

OT--do you see any way TDP could be used in the NOLA cleanup? Again, wishful thinking, but I'm sure if there was any way to make it happen, you of all people would have an idea...

[Darth Lib]

92. I just got over "Something"

I never get sick, so I thought I had food poisoning, but it turns out that other people in my office had come down with it as well.

Let me tell you, Death would have been a welcome relief. I have never, ever been so ill.

[tlsmith1963]

93. We Always Get Free Flu Shots at Work

Although last year we didn't because of the shortage, of course. I work in a casino, so we are always getting sick because of all the people who come in. The flu shots really help, although some people won't get them because they think the shots will *give* them the flu (& it does happen sometimes). I always get one. Better to be safe than sorry.

Tammy

[buzzsaw_23]

95. Bird virus is a hoax

meant for public consumption in Fear Nation.

[TechBear_Seattle]

105. This is a lot bigger than a hoax by the US government

Far too much information is available about the risks from far too many sources. While there is very little immediate risk, the potential future threat, near and not so near, is very real.

[buzzsaw_23]

107. The fear factor is played into

from a post above:

H5N1 the bird flu virus hasn't even mutated to a human to human virus yet ....you have to be in direct contact with infected poultry to receive it .Only when the virus mutates to a human to human influenza does it pose a threat to the western world .....when it does ....and trust me on this .....you'll know it ....because the numbers will be scary .

It's not airborne like the good doctor said ....

As we all know the american media are ....well let's just say not proporionate in their coverage of important stories ....so here's a good source on how it's hanging with the bird flu

http://www.who.int/csr/don/en /

And look at post #14 up above

I'm not talking about a gov't hoax i'm talking about the concept of this disease and how disease functions over-all. A young well fed person with a strong immunity will die from a bee sting or a lightning strike before the so-called avian flu gets them. 24,000+ died from hunger or hunger related causes, (most of them children) today and will again tomorrow, all of it preventable.

[FrankX]

116. Chimp's hoax. He wants to be able to use military to quarantine.

[kestrel91316]

121. Bone up on virology and then we can debate this. Until then, you

might want to crawl back into your cave.

[stickdog]

124. Avian flu is not contagious via human transmission.

There have been less than ten total SUSPECTED cases of human to human transmission.

Unless somebody has already spliced a highly humanly contagious version together, what's with all the "sky is falling" rhetoric?

Why are the MSM and their "experts" acting like a random mutation is INEVITABLE in an almost immediate timeframe?

[Mojorabbit]

129. This might help explain it

from http://www.psandman.com/col/pandemic.htm

There has been virtually nothing so far in either media coverage or public documents that tells people to expect themselves to react emotionally to the pandemic risk, to cope with that reaction, and to get past it. The sources’ failure to say these things, we believe, is part of why the public has failed to take the pandemic risk to heart.

Under the headline “Nation Braces for Global Flu Battle,” a public health official told the Toronto Star the other day: “But people shouldn’t be scared. Just remember, every year we go through flu season and the best way to prevent it is always the same boring way: wash your hands, cover your mouth when you sneeze, get your flu shot and stay home from work when you’re sick.”

Telling people not to be frightened about something legitimately frightening is tantamount to encouraging apathy or denial; and it leaves people who are frightened alone with their fear. This is exactly the opposite of what’s needed


There is another aspect of getting people into the adjustment reaction that deserves mention: the need to address audience skepticism. One way people defend themselves against anxiety about new risks is by mistrusting the source of the scary information. In general, official warnings are more trusted than official reassurances; people tend to assume, rightly, that governments are likelier to over-reassure than to over-alarm.

But there is always a cohort that mistrusts warnings, doubting the motives or the competence of the source. The current political climate in the United States makes this reaction likelier (and perhaps more justifiable); many may respond to word of H5N1 in the context of color-coded terrorism alerts and WMD controversies. Finding ways to acknowledge and diminish this mistrust is part of the task of delivering effective warnings

[stickdog]

132. How does that address any of my questions?

This is not a question of trust. It's a question of logic.

Why are we being told to fear a POTENTIAL future mutation of the avian flu virus that DOES NOT YET EXIST?


Telling people not to be frightened about something legitimately frightening is tantamount to encouraging apathy or denial; and it leaves people who are frightened alone with their fear. This is exactly the opposite of what’s needed.


What the fuck is this writer on about? Is he really trying to argue that it's helpful to make sure the public is "legitimately frightened" by a currently nonexistent virus?


None of this matters too much yet because H5N1 is hard for people to catch. Getting it requires very close contact with an infected bird (or on rare occasions an infected person), plus very bad luck. But influenza viruses keep changing. They mutate. And they exchange genetic material with other flu viruses, a process called reassortment. All that’s needed is a mutation or reassortment that produces a new variant of H5N1 — one that’s as deadly as the current strain but as easily transmitted from human to human as lots of other flu strains. Most virologists believe something like this will happen sooner or later, and many believe it will happen soon.

When it does, H5N1 will inevitably spread throughout the world.


This is my fundamental issue. I want someone to explain why the fuck "most virologists believe something like this will happen sooner or later, and many believe it will happen soon." I think this statement is alarmist bullshit in the absence of a laboratory created variant of avian flu. Sure, "something like this" will happen "sooner or later." So will something like 9/11, something like a supervolcano and something like an asteroid hitting the Earth. Should we therefore not rest until everybody is "legitimately afraid" of every potential future catastrophic threat? To what possible positive effect?


That’s what many experts think we’re facing sometime in the next few years.


Pardon my language, but I'm getting fucking sick and tired of hearing this CRAP! Who the fuck are these "many experts"? More importantly, where the fuck did they get their psychic abilities about the future random mutation sequence and timetable of the avian flu virus?


For example, on November 17, 2004, CIDRAP News reported that Anthony Fauci, the head of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, had said a flu pandemic was “probably on the way but not likely to begin in the next few weeks.... Is it going to happen sometime in the near future? The answer is yes, we’re due for it, but you can’t predict when it’s going to happen.”


The exact same thing can be said about the next North American supervolcano. Exactly what does the author think John Q. Public should do TODAY about either of these "legitimately scary" potential scenarios? How in the hell are we supposed to develop a vaccine to protect us against a virus that currently DOES NOT EXIST?

[Mojorabbit]

137. I read the article

and three things stood out for me.

One is that all the worlds top virilogists think this is the big one coming and they are worried sick. They are the experts and I will trust their knowledge.

The WHO backpedaled on their estimates of how many would die last week due to politics. Countries will downplay this in fear of losing tourism dollars while they try to contain it. I don't think we will know for sure till it is raging and can't be hidden that it is here.

Two, no vaccine will be available but they are going to try and rev up the system so that when it comes time to make one the resources will be up and ready to go though it will come too late for most people infected. There will be waves of infection. I think they are hoping that the later waves might be able to have a vaccine. The 1918 flu had waves for something like two years. The first waves infected will have nothing to help.

Three, is how to tell the public using just enough to make them aware without causing panic, how people use denial like I see on this board, ie it is a Bush conspiracy, and how the press soft pedals really scary news.

As I said before on these flu posts, my hubby is a physician. They are planning here on how to deal with this when it comes. It will be a disaster.The hospitals will fill and there will be no beds for the ill and not much other than supportive care.

I have read there is a two out of three chance this is going to be the big one. Better to do some planning than play the odds it is not cause once it starts it is too late. Seeing how the hurricane was handled gives you an inkling of how inept this admin is.

If it shows up it will be global, nations will close their borders, nothing will be shipped in or out. The world's economy will collapse for a time.
Every community on the local level needs a plan. This is what needs to be encouraged and needs to be done now....today.

[Cha]

98. Thanks William! That sounds

like good advice from your Doc and he obviously has bush's number!

[LittleClarkie]

110. Has he always been a Dem/Progressive/Liberal Doctor

or is that a recent development?

[William769]

135. Tis is the first time politics have ever came up.

So I cannot answer your question.

[jmatthan]

136. Prevention is better than cure

See my post here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=4972763&mesg_id=4976675